Oil will peak in 2030 only if climate commitments are met.

BarcelonaGlobal energy consumption broke records in 2024 across all its forms: coal, oil, natural gas, and renewables all reached their highest points to date. But the only one that can be said with absolute certainty to decrease in the future is coal, which is projected to reach peak demand before 2030 and then begin to decline. In contrast, oil and natural gas will only stop growing if the world's governments fulfill their climate commitments—that is, the plans they have submitted to the UN to reduce their greenhouse gas emissions. This is the conclusion of the International Energy Agency's annual report, the World Energy Outlook, which was released this Wednesday at the [event/conference/etc.]. UN climate summit in Brazil, COP30

The report presents three possible future scenarios: continuing with current energy policies, fulfilling declared commitments, and going even further and reaching zero emissions by 2050. In the first case, continuing as before, oil and natural gas would continue to grow indefinitely, and This would lead to a global temperature increase of 3ºC by the end of the century Regarding the pre-industrial era, says the IEA. But in the second scenario, if governments keep their promises, oil would reach peak demand in 2030, while natural gas would take somewhat longer, reaching peak around 2035, and then begin a slow decline.

In all scenarios, renewable energy grows faster than any other energy source, led by solar photovoltaics, but nevertheless, if current policies are maintained, it will not replace either natural gas or oil. Another common element in all scenarios is the resurgence of nuclear power. The International Energy Agency forecasts increased investment in both traditional plants and other projects, so that after two decades of stagnation, nuclear power will increase globally by at least a third by 2035, says the IEA.

Wave of investment in liquefied natural gas

This year's report has revised its natural gas growth forecasts upward, given the increased number of decisions to invest in liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects by 2025. This "anticipated surge in natural gas supply in the coming years" will lead to a 50% increase in the global supply of available LNG by 2030, the report states, pending further developments to determine if a peak is reached later on, should governments meet their promised emissions cuts. This is primarily due to the Russian gas crisis, which has prompted the United States and other countries to increase production. Natural gas emits 25% less CO₂ than oil, but it does emit some CO₂ because it is a fossil fuel. The European Union has included it on its list of clean energy sources, which receive investment incentives for the energy transition.

Energy transition analysts explain that over the past year, the IEA has been pressured by US Republicans and the Trump administration to ensure its annual report reflects a promising future for fossil fuels. But the report warns that this short-term growth in natural gas and oil "is no cause for complacency" but rather means that "the world is not meeting its targets: universal access to energy and combating climate change."

Peak oil depends on electrification

Peak oil will, in fact, depend on electrification, since 45% of the demand for this fuel comes from road transport, that is, gasoline for cars. If governments meet their climate commitments, the percentage of electric cars in the vehicle fleet would double by 2030 and rise even further to over 50% by 2035, allowing peak oil demand to be reached in 2030. Today, electricity only accounts for around 20% of final energy consumption globally. "Last year, we said the world was moving rapidly towards the Age of Electricity, and today it is clear that it has already arrived," said IEA Managing Director Fatih Birol, noting that contrary to the trend of the last decade, today "the increase in electricity consumption is no longer limited to the rapid growth of data centers and AI; these are also driving electricity consumption in advanced economies." The report acknowledges that the priority for governments right now is "energy security" and that a crucial issue for this security is ensuring that They are implementing efficient electricity grids, with storage systems and other sources of electrical system flexibility. "At the moment, some of these elements are falling behind," says the report, which highlights this year's general blackout on the Iberian Peninsula as an example.