Another 14 million deaths by 2030: Trump's cuts will also accelerate humanitarian crises

BarcelonaThe conclusions of the first scientific analysis of the impact that it may have the freezing of virtually all humanitarian aid from the United States to low- and middle-income countries are alarming: by 2030, deaths caused by the lack of access to diagnosis and treatment for diseases such as AIDS, malaria, and tuberculosis are expected to increase, as well as problems related to malnutrition and urban sanitation. Specifically, it is estimated that there will be an excess of 14 million deaths, including 4.5 million children under the age of five, in the next four and a half years due to the dismantling of foreign aid and international cooperation undertaken this year by the Donald Trump administration.

The prestigious magazine The Lancet has published this serious warning coinciding with the celebration of the International Conference on Financing for Development (FFD4), taking place this week in Seville. The data comes from a study coordinated by researchers from the Barcelona Institute for Global Health (ISGlobal), together with the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), the Institute of Collective Health at the Federal University of Bahia (ISC-UFBA), and the Manhiça Health Research Center (CISM) in Brazil.

Davide Rasella, Icrea researcher at ISGlobal and coordinator of the study, summarizes in a conversation with ARA the devastating effect that the indefinite elimination of US funds for international cooperation and humanitarian aid could have on the most socioeconomically vulnerable countries: it will lead to the destruction of entire health systems, more epidemics, and an acceleration of migratory flows.

The analysis projects the lack of US investment, which until now represented more than 40% of humanitarian aid worldwide, in key sectors such as strengthening and access to health systems, urban sanitation, nutrition, and education. According to the article, between 2001 and 2021, the funding provided by the now de facto The dismantled United States Agency for International Development (USAID) program to international outreach in up to 130 countries managed to prevent up to 91 million deaths, 30 million of them among children.

All of this, the study adds, is associated with a 15% reduction in overall mortality and a 32% reduction in child mortality, especially with regard to HIV/AIDS (-74%), malaria (-53%), and neglected tropical diseases (-51%), although also with regard to. In short, according to the researchers, these resources have been "an essential force in saving lives and improving health in some of the most vulnerable regions of the world over the last two decades."

Risk of a domino effect

"We are living in a very delicate moment internationally, one of great vulnerability, and the actions of the United States could set a dangerous precedent," warns Rasella. The researcher refers to the domino effect that could result from the United States turning off the tap on international cooperation, leading other donors, including the European Union, to also reduce their solidarity commitments. "Although the contribution from European countries is much lower, this halt would further weaken the provision of services in countries that already depend on external support," emphasizes Rasella, adding that it would be a "dramatic" situation. If Europe cuts its aid budget even further, there would be "even more additional deaths in the coming years," warns study co-author Caterina Monti.

To conduct the study, the researchers combined a retrospective assessment of the impact of USAID funding between 2001 and 2021 in 133 countries with projection models of the potential effects of phasing out these funds. They took into account factors such as population, income, education, and health systems (including differences by age and causes of death) and applied microsimulation techniques to calculate how many additional deaths could occur if current cuts continued.

With the 83% reduction in USAID programs, the report notes that "there is a risk of abruptly halting, or even reversing, two decades of progress in health for vulnerable populations": "For many low- and middle-income countries, the impact would be comparable to that of the global economy." "Americans contribute about 17 cents a day to USAID, roughly $64 a year. I think most would support continuing this funding if they knew how effective such a small contribution can be in saving millions of lives," concludes James Macinko, a UCLA professor who participated in the .