1. The war is not over yet. We are waiting to see if the US will consolidate its power in the Strait of Hormuz, to gain an advantage over China in this strategic region, and if they will clear the way to build the Persian Gulf - Mediterranean oil pipeline, to isolate Russia. These two elements would imply moving from the containment phase of Iran to its complete paralysis. We are also still waiting to see if Israel will destroy what remains of the Iranian infrastructure and if it will be able to overthrow the Shia totalitarian theocracy.

In the regal auditorium of Tsinghua University, one of China's most prestigious, the Spanish Prime Minister has initiated the official visit to the Asian giant with a clear statement of intent in the form of a speech. Pedro Sánchez has advocated for strengthening multilateralism and, at the same time, reforming it to have a more representative and democratic UN Security Council that gives more power to southern countries. Although he has acknowledged China's efforts in defending international law, he has assigned it homework, for example, to get involved in ceasing conflicts in Lebanon, Iran, Gaza, the West Bank, and also in Ukraine. He has not forgotten about the economy and has demanded more balanced relations, recalling the large trade deficit with the Asian giant: "We need China to open up so that Europe does not have to close itself off".

Sometimes, a good social response is not a good political response. Lowering VAT on fuels is one of the most common responses –and best received by citizens– when the cost of living rises, as we are experiencing due to the outbreak of the war in Iran. Its effect is immediate and visible and, for this very reason, it often becomes one of the options taken by governments. However, as Brussels has warned, which has questioned Sánchez's reduction, not only its legality but also its effects must be called into question. To what extent have these types of measures become an almost automatic response to episodes of inflation without taking into account their costs and benefits, compared to other less conspicuous, but perhaps more effective, political alternatives?It is not difficult to understand why VAT reductions are attractive. In a context like the current one, marked by rising fuel prices, reducing VAT translates directly into a lower price at the petrol station. It is an easy-to-explain measure, which reaches everyone and is immediately perceived, making it particularly tempting for governments. But this same simplicity is also its limit: not all households benefit equally, and they often end up benefiting those who consume the most. Furthermore, by artificially lowering the price, the measures reduce the incentives to adjust consumption in a context where energy prices remain high and with no clear prospects of reduction., the measures reduce the incentives to adjust consumption in a context where energy prices remain high and with no clear prospects of reduction.They are not, therefore, isolated cases. Our tax system has been accumulating a set of benefits – reduced and super-reduced VAT rates, deductions and exemptions – which, far from forming a coherent system, reduce its revenue and the system's redistributive capacity. They are mechanisms that reach many but often redistribute little, and that end up functioning more as generalized discounts than as instruments of social policy. In this context, there is growing consensus on the need to review these tax benefits and strengthen more direct and better-oriented instruments.The problem is not the lack of instruments, but how we use them. We prioritize visible measures that help diffusely, while the most effective ones often do not arrive. The challenge is not to add more aid, but to ensure that those that work are the ones that are applied. Whether they are popular or not.

Pope Leo XVI sent a message this Friday to the North American president, Donald Trump. "God does not bless any conflict," stated the pontiff, who assures that those who are "disciples of Christ" are never on the side of those who "launch bombs." In a meeting at the Vatican with members of the Synod of the Chaldean Church of Baghdad, he declared that "it will not be military actions that create spaces of freedom or times of peace, but those of the people."In a harsh speech, the Pope told the bishops that they are signs of hope "in a world marked by absurd and inhumane violence," driven "by greed and hatred." These attributes, he added, "extend with ferocity precisely to the lands that saw salvation born, to the sacred places of the Christian East, profaned by the blasphemy of war and the brutality of business, without any consideration for the lives of people, considered, in the best of cases, as a collateral effect of their own interests."With a focus on the "sacred places of the Christian East, profaned by the blasphemy of war and the brutality of business," the pontiff made a call for "true religious freedom" to be enjoyed throughout the region, without being treated "as guests or second-class citizens."

The real problem with what has happened in recent times in the Near East and Middle East is the Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu, and his permanent ultranationalist and militaristic forward flight to stay in power and thus evade the judicial cases that plague him. After the genocide perpetrated in Gaza in response to Hamas's terrorist attack, Israel has pushed the United States of Trump into a war against the ayatollahs' Iran and has taken advantage of the military escalation to unashamedly execute its expansionist ambitions in the region. The objective: to gain security space by destroying its historical enemies.

The meticulous account by the journalists of The New York Times published by l’ARA confirms what was obvious from three hours away: it was Netanyahu who dragged Trump into the war against Iran. The Israeli prime minister enthusiastically sold him a product of the type “What could go wrong?”, tailored to the scattered and capricious attention span of an egomaniacal president. And it worked.

The scope of the consequences of the war in Iran are still unpredictable. The joint attack by Israel and the United States against the Islamic Republic on February 28, and the reactivation of Tel Aviv's offensive in Lebanon, have left thousands dead, have set the Middle East ablaze, and have caused an earthquake in the world economy. But how did we get here? Why have the US embarked on a conflict that has lasted almost six weeks? And above all: at what point did Trump decide it was a good idea?

Markets have already reacted to the news of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, which includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's consumed oil and natural gas circulates. Asia's main stock markets have led the green trend in this last session, a trend that European and North American stock markets have subsequently followed.

The head of International for ARA and special envoy to Dubai, Francesc Millan, answers subscribers' questions about the war in the Middle East in a live conversation with deputy director Carla Turró.

Supporters of Trumpism and the MAGA movement (we have plenty of them right here) find it a little more difficult each day to maintain their stance. According to them, both Trump and the young lions of his administration (Hegseth, Rubio, Vance) represent an advanced elite, which in no way can be reduced to the criticisms and caricatures of leftists and progressives, who are always clueless and outdated. These ringleaders of the new American right have pursued, with academic success, rigorous study plans at prestigious universities; they handle information that ordinary citizens can only dream of; they have a broad and sophisticated geopolitical vision, and they follow a well-designed plan to end the old order that emerged from World War II and the Cold War to establish a new one. Such are the grand, ambitious, and impressive goals that the new leaders of the world aim to achieve, who are also ironic, fun, cool, and politically incorrect guys. This is the picture that, in broad strokes, their defenders paint. The problem is that, as always when someone proposes a real revolution and truly overturns the established order, many do not understand it.Reality, however, seems to be something else. The latest diplomatic expression from the current US president is a tweet addressed to the Iranian regime with these exact words: “Open the damn strait, you crazy bastards, or you will live in hell (...) Praise be to Allah.” Tavern insults, copying the style of the recently deceased patriot Chuck Norris, followed by a religious allusion that is perhaps intended to be ironic but only comes across as crude. This does not seem like the communication of a US president with a vanguard vision of the geopolitical chessboard, nor do these even seem like phrases spoken by a sane person. For his part, the secretary of the Trump administration they call the War Department, Pete Hegseth, supposedly an intellectual who combines refined university training with solid military knowledge, is someone who insists on appearing in public describing apocalyptic images of fire and destruction falling from the sky upon Iran: he says this in these words, and with notably dilated pupils. Both he and his commander-in-chief (Trump) are incapable of recognizing what everyone knows: that they went to war with Iran dragged along by Israel, partly because it served as a smokescreen for both Trump and Netanyahu: for the repugnant Epstein scandal in the American's case, for the genocide in Palestine in the Israeli's case.This Tuesday, the ultimatum expires for Iran to open the Strait of Hormuz, which is strangling the world economy as a consequence of the turpitude of the absurd and bloodthirsty Trump/Netanyahu couple. It remains to be seen whether all this rhetoric of unleashed hells and falling fires from the sky translates into a concrete military order. It could happen (there have been warnings to this effect) that the American military disobeys the presidential order. If it is an illegal or unconstitutional order, they have a duty to do so.

Since Pete Hegseth was appointed Secretary of Defense of the United States, a name that would later change to Secretary of War, he has dismissed more than a dozen high-ranking military officials, including several four-star generals. The latest case occurred this very Friday, when Hegseth forced the early retirement of the chief of staff of the army, Randy George, right in the middle of the Iran war. But Trump and Hegseth's purge of the military goes back much further, to the beginning of their term, so they have ended up shaping a tailor-made military leadership.

The Old City of Jerusalem has an unusual soundtrack these days: it is not the bells or the murmur of pilgrims, but the sirens. Holy Week has arrived subdued, almost in silence, in a city crossed by the war against Iran and by restrictions that have profoundly altered the celebration of one of the most important festivals in the Christian calendar.Through the narrow streets of the Christian quarter, northwest of the city, usually full of groups following the stations of the cross and gathering to attend mass, today only a few neighbors pass by at a quick pace. The blinds of many shops with religious souvenirs like wooden crosses, rosaries, and icons are down. “Normally, we would have people from all over the world now,” explains Joseph, owner of a small ceramics shop. “Easter is when we have the most work. But this year... there's almost no one,” he laments.A few streets away, in the Armenian quarter, the silence is even denser. “It had been years since I saw anything like it,” says Mariam, a resident who is going out to shop. “Not even during the pandemic was it this empty. Now people are afraid and also tired of so much police presence.”Since March 6, in the context of the war conflict, Israeli authorities have imposed harsh restrictions and closed the main holy sites, such as the Al-Aqsa Mosque complex, the Western Wall, and the Holy Sepulchre. Holy Week is thus experienced without groups of pilgrims or processions and with an image that went around the world on Sunday, that of the Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem, Pierbattista Pizzaballa, unable to access the Basilica of the Holy Sepulchre.Faced with the avalanche of criticism, the office of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu assured that it had ordered to allow the immediate entry of the patriarch to the temple and that the imposed measures are due to the need to “protect the faithful of all religions” in the face of the threat of Iranian missiles. According to the government and the police, the Old City is a “complex area” where access for emergency vehicles is limited, which could put lives at risk in case of an attack.Security as an excuse

Despite this justification, an important part of the Christian community interprets the Holy Week restrictions as another display of control over East Jerusalem, the part of the city occupied by Israel since 1967, an act considered illegal according to the International Court of Justice.“One must understand the context: Israel, especially in recent years, has done everything possible to isolate Jerusalem from the rest of the West Bank”, explains Palestinian analyst and political scientist Xavier Abu Eid to ARA. “The possibility of maintaining Christian traditions depends on Palestinians’ access to holy sites, meaning that Palestinians from the rest of the West Bank can enter East Jerusalem, and this access is increasingly restricted”, he adds.According to him, war is only the last justification: “We are again being held hostage under the excuse of security. Access permits are granted arbitrarily: perhaps they authorize the husband, but not the wife or all the children.” He also warns that the increase in settler attacks in the West Bank leads many people to prefer not to travel to Jerusalem to avoid risks.Along the same lines, Yusef Daher, the coordinator of the organization that brings together churches in the city, Jerusalem Liaison Office of the World Council of Churches, is blunt: “Security is always the excuse.” “But deep down we know it is a political issue, based on a logic that wants to make Jerusalem an exclusively Jewish city, with very little connection, freedom, or equality for others,” he adds.Low-key celebrations

After Sunday's incident, celebrations will continue, but at a minimum. “The liturgy of Holy Week will be held behind closed doors, without an audience, only with the local community and a few participants,” Pizzaballa explained on Tuesday at a press conference to the media. In a normal year, the city experiences these days with intensity: Holy Thursday at the Holy Sepulchre, with the ritual of the washing of the feet; Good Friday, with thousands of pilgrims walking the Stations of the Cross, and Easter Sunday, with churches packed to the brim. This year, however, the Holy Sepulchre remains closed to the public and each church is adapting its events, following the safety guidelines of the Israeli government, which imposes a limit of 50 people whenever there is a shelter nearby. Given this capacity limit, the most important celebrations are broadcast online. “The atmosphere is very depressing, there is no sense of celebration”, adds Daher. “With this war and after two years of offensive in Gaza, the economy is sunk and Palestinian Christians, who depend on tourism, suffer particularly. We feel crushed by an far-right government, with no real hope that this will stop”, he laments.In the street, the feeling is shared. "We wanted to experience Holy Week in Jerusalem, but the city is very different... sadder," explain Maria and Luca, an Italian couple in front of the Basilica of the Holy Sepulchre. "We've entered it more times, it's impressive, but this year the feeling is bittersweet."

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Long before the coordinated bombings on Iran by Israel and the United States, the Tehran regime had been warning for weeks that any attack would trigger a war escalation of the utmost consequences. A month later, the confrontation is already being played out on the battlefield of the economy and threatens to cause a new global recession.

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When Tehran was attacked by US and Israeli drones and missiles on February 28, Iran's allies responded swiftly. Hezbollah, the Shiite armed group from Lebanon, did not wait. The moment Ali Jamenei's death was confirmed, it launched a barrage of over 90 rockets and drones at northern Israel and against the monitoring base on Mount Hermon, in Israel. Iraqi militias attacked the US embassy in Baghdad and forced an evacuation of diplomatic staff. Even Syrian militias – weakened since the fall of Bashar al-Assad – launched projectiles towards the border area with Turkey. But, until today, a key ally of the so-called axis of resistancehad refrained from formally entering the conflict: the Houthis of Yemen.

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No one could have imagined, when the US and Israel launched the first attacks against Iran on Saturday, February 28, that especially Washington and, specifically, US President Donald Trump, had not foreseen the consequences. The evolution of events makes it increasingly clear: there was no strategy. At least, not on the part of the US. Another thing is the government of Benjamin Netanyahu, which takes advantage of the opportunity to achieve its expansionist goals, with no regard for international law and human rights.

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It was no longer decisive, but their vote was one of the last unknowns in the vote on the decree with tax cuts for the Iran war. The PP plans to abstain, according to popular sources. However, Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party still leaves the door open to a vote in favor if there is a last-minute turn by the Spanish government. What should happen? That Pedro Sánchez's executive commits during the debate, which will take place this Thursday, to deflating personal income tax. For the PP, the package of measures approved last Friday by the Council of Ministers is still "insufficient". However, they will not vote against it because it "includes part of its proposal for tax cuts".

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The beginning of the speech was indicative of what the tone of the debate and the strategy of the Spanish president, Pedro Sánchez, would be to defend Iran's 'no to war'. A few minutes after taking the podium in Congress, he recited: "There are dates that are not forgotten, that remain marked forever in the collective memory of a country. February 15, 2003 is one. That Saturday, 3 million citizens said no to war", he recalled. In this way, alluding to the citizenry's reaction to the invasion of Iraq twenty years ago, Sánchez contrasted his position with that of the PP government in 2003. "José María Aznar dragged us into a war to feel important and because Bush invited him for a cigar," he stated, guaranteeing that "now Spain will not be an accomplice, not while I am president."

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Oil prices are rising again. Brent crude is hovering around $110 and has even touched $120. This isn't a one-off spike. It's a jump that could last for months.

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Nuclear energy has a very bad reputation, and ever since Chernobyl, it has earned the fear it inspires. However, this hasn't stopped many countries from continuing to invest in it because they need it to function. In Catalonia alone, it accounts for more than 50% of the energy we generate. The Fukushima earthquake, now 15 years old, gave ammunition to anti-nuclear activists, and several countries, including Germany and Spain, began denuclearization plans, relying on seemingly stable gas and oil reserves and the possibility of adapting to renewable energies for long-term sustainability. The war in Ukraine, which cut off the supply of Russian gas, and now the Gulf War, have changed things.

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Judging by the headlines surrounding the Iran war, there's a fear that the West will enter the war and we could end up in a third world war. However, when one examines the international system from an economic perspective, another conclusion emerges: a large-scale, protracted war is profoundly irrational for almost all the actors involved.

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