Oil prices continued to rise Tuesday afternoon due to the Gulf War, fueled by uncertainty surrounding the conflict, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping, and Iranian attacks on energy infrastructure in the region. Brent crude, the European benchmark, rose more than 4% Tuesday morning compared to the previous day, reaching $104.23 per barrel. However, by early afternoon, the price increase had moderated to 1.30%. Similarly, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the US benchmark, was up nearly 1.5% at the same time Tuesday afternoon, reaching $93.99 per barrel, while natural gas rose 1.40% to €51.60 per megawatt.

Oil prices remain above $100 a barrel in the wake of the Iran-Iraq War. Brent crude, the European benchmark, although it experienced a drop of around 1% on Monday, remains well above the $72 mark it held before the US and Israeli attack on Iran. Meanwhile, West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude, the US benchmark, followed the same trend, falling by around 2.60% to $94.30 a barrel. In fact, Brent reached a high of $106 on Monday. The rise came after US President Donald Trump warned on Sunday that the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) would face a "very bad future" if allies did not cooperate to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic waterway for international oil trade. Despite these statements, the price of crude oil has turned downward, stabilizing around $102 a barrel. The price increase occurred even though the International Energy Agency (IEA) decided last week to release 400 million barrels from strategic reserves, the largest release in its history, to help reduce tensions in oil prices. Trump also lifted the embargo on Russian oil for a month, despite opposition from the European Union, to ease crude oil prices.

Mujtaba Khamenei's first public statement as Iran's Supreme Leader, read by a female voice on state media, confirmed the worst fears for the global economy by reaffirming that the Strait of Hormuz will remain closed to pressure Donald Trump and the United States. The price of oil has become the Iranian regime's main weapon in this trade war, and it seems prepared to use it to its fullest extent. In fact, immediately after Khamenei's remarks, the price of oil rose again above €100, although it subsequently fluctuated. Consumers worldwide are already feeling the effects of the trade war in their wallets, primarily through increased fuel prices, especially diesel. If the trade war drags on, the increased costs will be passed on throughout the supply chain, reaching the final product. This price increase is severely impacting Trump's electoral base in the United States, which voted for him largely on his promise to focus on lowering prices and not starting wars abroad. American farmers are seeing not only the price of diesel fuel for their tractors rise these days, but also the price of the fertilizers they need, much of which passes through the Strait of Hormuz. Their complaints are reaching Republican congressmen and senators, who are up for reelection in November and are pressuring the White House to end the intervention.

Donald Trump is trying to curb the soaring price of oil, fueled by fears that the Iran-Contra conflict will drag on. After seeing the price of a barrel of crude oil soar above $100—a level not seen since 2022, with Russia's invasion of Ukraine—the US president declared that the campaign "is almost over." "I think the war is almost over. They have no warships, they have no communication, they have no air force," the tycoon said on CBS. And the market has decided to take Trump's word for it: the price of a barrel of crude oil has fallen back below $90. The stock market, which had also opened with sharp declines due to the threat of an energy crisis, recovered shortly before the close of trading on Monday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, which had suffered a plunge of nearly 900 points at the start of the session, rebounded by 239. Trump knew what he was doing when he made this statement on CBS, shortly before Wall Street closed. After managing to weather another day with some damage control, the president has adopted an ambiguous stance regarding his words. In his address in Florida at the Republican Party Members' Conference, the tycoon said, "We will not stop until the enemy is completely destroyed." He also insisted that the conflict "will end very quickly."