The International Energy Agency (IEA) has substantially revised downwards its expectations for global oil demand and supply in 2026 due to the lack of an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The current situation has shattered the positive expectations from a month ago, which will keep crude oil prices high, while reserves have fallen to lows since April 2025.

Negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are advancing, although the final details remain unsettled. Iran and Oman have moved closer on a new maritime route to re-establish transit through this strategic passage, while Washington and Tehran maintain indirect contact to resolve the political obstacles that still block a definitive reopening.

The sirens have sounded again this Sunday in several Gulf countries as the United States and Iran have taken a new step in an escalation that threatens to squander the fragile memorandum of understanding signed just a few weeks ago between Washington and Tehran. After a third wave of American bombings against more than 140 Iranian military targets in recent hours, Tehran has responded with a coordinated offensive against American military installations in the Gulf. It has attacked with missiles and drones in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Jordan, and has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the artery through which around 20% of the oil and liquefied natural gas traded in the world passes.

The dam of cross-attacks between the United States and Iran this week has left the ceasefire signed on June 15 not dead, but with assisted breathing. At the center of the resumption of hostilities is, once again, the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the key passage for gas and oil and other strategic goods that Iran has brought under its control. A weapon of mass economic destruction that has served it, so far, to survive an attack that surpassed it militarily.

The President of the Spanish Government, Pedro Sánchez, has announced the launch of a state fertilizer plan to mitigate Spain's dependence on the Middle East, a region that concentrates – through the Strait of Hormuz – one-third of the world's fertilizer trade. At an event held this Monday in San Martín de la Vega (Madrid), the head of the executive indicated that he expects the initiative to be completed during the first quarter of 2027, with three lines of action that he considers "priorities": the commitment to precision agriculture, strategic autonomy, and price transparency.

The conflict in the Middle East has paralyzed 1,150 cargo ships carrying goods worth an estimated approximately 125 billion dollars (110.074 billion euros) in the Strait of Hormuz, causing nearly 20,000 sailors to remain in the Persian Gulf. This was reported by Allianz Commercial this Wednesday in its report on maritime safety and transport, in which it pointed to a transition with a "new maritime order".

The Strait of Hormuz continues to be the focus of global economic activity. Enagás CEO Arturo Gonzalo Aizpiri has stated that, if the peace agreement and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz are confirmed, gas futures markets will not recover "full price normality" until "the end of next year or the beginning of 2028".

Iran announced this Saturday the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which occurs, according to the country's most important military command, due to "the clear violation by the United States of the first clause of the Memorandum of Understanding" and "in response to the continuous and persistent ceasefire violations by the Zionist regime in southern Lebanon". The agreement signed this week between Washington and Tehran establishes, textually, the "immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon"establishes, textually, the "immediate and permanent cessation of military operations on all fronts, including Lebanon".

The framework agreement between the US and Iran to end the war initiated by Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu on February 28 has been met with hope in the Middle East and financial markets, as demonstrated by the fall in oil prices. However, after countless breaches of previous truces and false proclamations of the conflict's imminent end, caution prevails among most international shipping companies.

The Japanese have been able to verify in recent days that Calbee's potato chip bags have suddenly changed their design. Where previously there were bright colors, eye-catching illustrations and intense orange tones, now more sober, almost bare packaging appears, dominated by black and white. The gesture, seemingly minor, responds to a decision that is unusual in the world of food marketing: to minimize ink usage to ensure continuity of supply.

On March 1, 2026, a spokesperson for the Iranian government announced on television: “After a lifetime of incessant and tireless struggle (...), the supreme leader Ali Khamenei drank the sweet chalice of martyrdom and entered Paradise.” He described Khamenei as “the tireless leader who has guided the state for the last 40 years” and, at the end of his statement, could not contain his tears.Not everyone in Iran thinks this way. There are citizens who would be willing to negotiate a reduction in economic sanctions and an agreement with the US, but they have no vehicle to express it. In an autocratic state, the opposition does not have the capacity to express itself. Even less so in Iran, where the opposition is physically massacred, with thousands of deaths and dozens of executions.Khamenei has been able to politically nullify his adversaries over the almost 40 years he has been the supreme leader –reformists at different levels: Rafsanjani, Khatami, Ahmadinejad, Rouhani, Pezeshkian–, and has consolidated his orthodoxy of intransigence with the support of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, the backbone of a police state. The fact that the one chosen to succeed him has been his son, Mojtaba, confirms this.The relationship between the US and Israel has mutated under the Trump administration into an alliance of equals. Beyond the supply of American weaponry, ammunition, and military intelligence since the birth of the Hebrew state in 1948, the alliance between the two countries to conduct a shared war in the Gulf seeks to obtain an incontestable political, military, and economic supremacy, which both imagine as viable and for which Israel has openly fought since 1967 and the US since the 1980s.

The war between the United States and Israel against Iran and the consequent blockade of the Strait of Hormuz is beginning to have a direct impact on the mental health and working conditions of the sailors trapped in the area, who, according to data from the International Maritime Organization (IMO), number around 20,000. This pressure is confirmed to ARA by Amy Liebthal, spokesperson for the International Seafarers' Welfare and Assistance Network (ISWAN), an entity that operates a free, confidential, and multilingual 24-hour telephone assistance service (Seafarer Help), aimed at seafarers in situations of risk and their families.

Financial markets seem unfazed. Despite the war between the United States and Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the epicenter of the conflict, and repeated warnings from major international organizations about the risks of a prolonged escalation, the reaction has, for the moment, been one of containment. Or, at least, of a certain indifference. The world's main stock exchanges are trading near all-time highs, and in some cases continue to break records, as if the geopolitical background noise is being muffled by a confidence that, even today, is holding up better than many anticipated. It's not just a matter of markets: household behavior also doesn't seem particularly altered.The stock market is not always a good predictor of the economic future. Sometimes it is right, but it often underestimates risks, especially when they are complex or difficult to quantify. Is this the case? The economic dynamics of the main economies – also the Catalan one – remain relatively solid, at least for now. First-quarter corporate results have been, in general terms, positive and have reinforced the perception that global growth maintains a certain favorable inertia, despite the accumulation of shocks and uncertainties.To this optimism is added another key element: the growing expectation about the impact that artificial intelligence can have on productivity. Not in a distant future, but already today. The latest advances, both in capabilities and applications, fuel the perception of a far-reaching economic transformation, which is not limited to specialized technological sectors, but is beginning to extend to the economy as a whole. If you tried an AI application a few years ago –or even a few months ago– and it disappointed you, try it again. And if you haven't done so yet, the time has come. The qualitative leap is evident, and its transformative potential, difficult to ignore. You will be amazed!Macroeconomic data confirm that the economy is resisting better than could have been feared. In the Spanish case, GDP grew by 2.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, slightly above what had been forecast before the outbreak of the conflict. This growth is healthy and rests mainly on domestic demand, with a prominent role for household consumption and investment that consolidates the momentum of recent quarters. High-frequency indicators suggest that this inertia is being maintained, even though the conflict has already lasted two months: household spending continues to advance strongly, especially in items sensitive to confidence such as leisure, restaurants, or, more recently, fashion, furniture, and decoration.To all this is added a factor often forgotten, but key to understanding the reaction, so far contained, of the price of energy: before the outbreak of the conflict, global oil reserves were at historically high levels. It is true that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has generated a significant deficit in the global production of oil and gas – insufficient, at the moment, to meet demand – and that reserves are being reduced rapidly. But the starting point was relatively favorable.Finally, there is an implicit calculation –risky, but fundamental– that helps explain the markets' serenity. From the outset, they have assumed that the conflict would be short-lived. Perhaps because a prolonged scenario would end up having a serious impact on the global economy, also on the North American one, in a context marked, moreover, by the fall in popularity of the President of the United States a few months before the midterm elections. The fact is that oil and gas futures markets continue to anticipate a contained and time-limited price increase.It is, however, a risky calculation. The situation could turn sour, the conflict intensify and drag on. In this case, the scenario would change substantially: supply problems in some Asian or less resourced countries, a much less accommodating attitude from the markets, sustained tensions in energy prices and, finally, a clear impact on household budgets. We are not yet at this point. Time is running out, but, for the moment, the economy is holding up and looking the other way.

Donald Trump reiterated this midday, on his Truth Social network, threats to Iran's energy infrastructure, after yesterday the Revolutionary Guard attacked "a French ship and a British cargo ship" and again closed the Strait of Hormuz. "A total violation of our ceasefire agreement!", he proclaimed, after announcing that he is sending representatives to Pakistan again to resume negotiations for the peace agreement.

The United States and Iran are squeezing the last days of the ceasefire, which expires on Tuesday night to Wednesday, in a race against time negotiation. Neither wants to return to an open war that would have unpredictable consequences, but no significant approximation of positions is seen either. The truce is affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed. Iran announced on Friday that it would allow commercial vessels to pass through a route under its control, but, after Washington said it maintained its blockade on the passage of Iranian vessels, the Revolutionary Guard said the strait "returned to the previous situation," and attacked several vessels. Trump considered it a violation of the ceasefire, and this Sunday he announced that his representatives will arrive in Islamabad on Monday night. He also stated that the US military had captured an Iranian ship attempting to cross the naval blockade. Vice President J.D. Vance will once again lead the US delegation, along with envoy Steve Witkoff and President's son-in-law Jared Kushner. Iranian authorities, on the other hand, have not confirmed the second round of talks and have accused Washington of "excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant changes of stance, repeated contradictions" and consider the US naval blockade a violation of the ceasefire.

The weekly magazine Destino published an editorial note on January 17, 1959, which resonates strongly today. It stated: "As we announced to our readers, Josep Pla has boarded a tanker in El Ferrol to produce a series of major reports exclusively for the readers of Destino. The information we have commissioned from our friend is about oil. Europe is dependent on this fuel, and it is necessary for a journalist like Pla to explain to us, with his unparalleled acuity, all the political and economic problems involved in the extraction and exploitation of oil." Almost seventy years have passed, and not only Europe, but the whole world is dependent on it.

Tankers that left the Persian Gulf before the war are now arriving at port. That is to say: the worst moment in terms of hydrocarbon availability is yet to come. But the disruption will not be permanent. For a paradoxical reason. US stocks hit their all-time high this week. Financial markets are telling Trump that they want peace and for him to stop the war. It is a market that Trump can manipulate with tricks for his own benefit, but hardly to encourage him to wage war if they do not want it. They are his friends and they have expressed themselves clearly. Nevertheless, the moment is dangerous. The temptation to flee forward will be there. But I believe that the Persian leaders, fanatical but not stupid, will understand, and that in a relatively short period an understanding will be reached that will allow both sides to claim victory. I think it will include an open Strait of Hormuz.

Although Iran announced this Friday the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the 10-day truce agreed in Lebanon, this Saturday it has backtracked and announced that it will re-impose "strict control" over the passage. This plot twist comes after the United States maintained the blockade against Iranian ports yesterday. "Control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state and this strategic waterway is under strict management and control by the Armed Forces," announced the spokesman for the Jatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfagari, in a statement collected by the Tasnim agency.

Donald Trump's deadline to block the Strait of Hormuz expired this Monday past 10 a.m. in Washington and, during the first hour, the only visible change has been on a rhetorical level. The president has once again threatened the Iranians, warning them that any of their ships that try to overcome the siege of the US military will be "eliminated". "If any of these ships approach our blockade, they will be immediately eliminated, and we will use the same elimination system that we use against drug traffickers on boats at sea. It is fast and brutal," warned the Republican, alluding to extrajudicial executions in the Caribbean Sea against alleged narco-boats. Shortly after the Republican announced on Sunday his intention to obstruct maritime passage to economically harm the ayatollahs, Tehran warned that no port in the Persian Gulf would be safe if he tried to stop their ships.

Good news arrived tonight from Hungary:Viktor Orbán has lost the elections. He has lost them clearly, because the opposition leader has won them with a resounding two-thirds absolute majority with the highest turnout in Hungary's recent democratic history; never before had so many people gone to vote since 1989 when the communist regime fell, meaning there was a desire to vote and a desire for change.The profile of the winner, Péter Magyar, is apparently contradictory: he worked for Orbán's government, but has been increasingly distancing himself until stating tonight that "the people of Hungary have said yes to Europe". And in Brussels there is euphoria, because although Hungary is a relatively small country (9 and a half million inhabitants), Orbán's Hungary was a kind of black sheep in the European Union for a double and powerful reason: it was the candidate of Putin and Trump. It has always opposed European sanctions on Russia, and as for Trump, Orbán was one of the European references for the American president, to the point that last week Vice President Vance went to Hungary to support Orbán in an electoral rally. That Trump's candidates lose in Europe, that going hand in hand with Trump detracts rather than adds, is a sign that people do not want wars like those in Iran that are making us more expensive and complicating our lives, as we explain on this page: the rising cost of fertilizers threatens the cost of food, and it turns out that the Persian Gulf countries are among the main producers.the rising cost of fertilizers threatens the cost of food, and it turns out that the Persian Gulf countries are among the main producers.By the way, the first round of peace talks with Iran ended in disagreement (as expected) and tonight Trump said he will block the Strait of Hormuz (which will prevent Iran from charging tolls to pass through it), which in essence is an acknowledgment that he cannot open it. And since he does everything in bulk, this morning he attacked Pope Leo XIV in one of those on-the-fly responses, saying that the Pope is