Despite inflation and higher interest rates, the Spanish economy will continue to be the fastest-growing European economy next year. This is the forecast from CaixaBank Research's outlook for 2027. The estimates from the bank's research department, presented this Monday, point to a 2% rise in gross domestic product (GDP) next year, compared to 2.6% in the current fiscal year; and 1.4% for the eurozone (1% in 2026), as explained by Enric Fernández, chief economist at CaixaBank.

Spanish households are among those that invest the least in capital markets (stocks, bonds, pension plans, and investment funds). The average per adult is 31,039 euros, 36% below the European Union (EU) average, which is 48,290 euros. And at a much greater distance from Denmark (116,334), Sweden (114,028), and the Netherlands (113,248). All three are countries with much more tradition for these investments and higher living standards than in Spain. These figures come from a study conducted by the Association for Financial Markets in Europe (AFME, which brings together banks, brokers, and financial institutions), where it highlights the need to boost the participation of households in European capital markets to mobilize savings towards productive investment and reinforce the European commitment to strategic autonomy.

In times of high inflation, like the ones we are living through, any investment measure that allows us to compensate for it, even partially, is more than recommended. Investing does not mean we have to buy risky stocks or cryptocurrencies. Today, one can also invest without taking risks.

Shattering profit records has become the new normal for major Spanish banks. After a 2025 marked by an increase in commercial activity in an environment of falling interest rates, the new geopolitical and economic context has given the sector a new boost. With skyrocketing inflation and a European Central Bank (ECB) forced to implement a restrictive monetary policy to avoid a loss of control over prices, the new wave of interest rate hikes has catapulted the results of the main entities, which are forecasting a historic year.

The latest Federal Reserve (the Fed, the United States central bank) meeting could not have come at a worse time, both for Donald Trump and for its chair, Kevin Warsh. One week before the elections, the Fed has decided to keep interest rates in the same range of between 3.75% and 4% after having decided to raise them at the previous meeting for the first time since 2023.

Not so long ago, the United States, the world's leading power, was perceived as a reliable economy, with stability and legal certainty. With Donald Trump in the White House, this image has changed, based on the comings and goings of tariff policy and the conflicts he has generated—such as the war with Iran. This is indicated by the interest rates on 10-year US Treasury debt, which have soared above 5.3%, well above the 5% threshold considered dangerous for an economy with a debt exceeding 40 trillion dollars.

The honeymoon between the new Federal Reserve (the Fed, the United States central bank) chair, Kevin Warsh, and U.S. President Donald Trump is over. The organization announced this Wednesday that it is raising interest rates to the range between 3.75% and 4%, which represents an increase of 0.25 percentage points compared to the previous 3.5%, despite Trump's demands that it cut them.

The president of the United States Federal Reserve (Fed), Kevin Warsh, faces the challenge this Wednesday of raising interest rates to combat inflation, which stood at 3.4% in August, far from the 2% target. Markets and investors take for granted a quarter-point increase, with a probability of more than 90%, according to the digital tool Fedwatch CME. But there is a problem: this is precisely the opposite of what the country's president, Donald Trump, who pushed for Warsh's appointment, wants. The head of the White House, in addition, threatened to cut off trade with all countries with which it has a trade deficit if the Fed does not lower the price of money, currently situated between 3.50% and 3.75%, after keeping it in July.

The fact that the European Central Bank (ECB) is raising interest rates is the main measure it has to fight against the high inflation we are experiencing, largely caused by the cost of fuel. As individuals, how does this affect us? In short, money will be more expensive for everyone. If the price of money is higher, financing will be too. Consider that, when a bank calculates the interest rate of a loan, the operating margin is added to its cost. Therefore, we can expect an increase in the cost of new consumer loans.

Buying a car in installments, taking out a loan to renovate a house, or financing a business investment will be a little more expensive. The European Central Bank (ECB) has decided to increase interest rates by a quarter of a percentage point, to 2.5%, with the aim of curbing the price escalation caused by the war in Iran.

Public debt yields have experienced a significant climb in recent weeks, reaching levels not seen in two decades. Fears of inflation and, therefore, the forecast of new interest rate hikes have driven sales of these assets. The fact is that if the cost of living becomes more expensive, the fixed interest paid by a bond loses purchasing power and, consequently, investors sell the securities they hold in their portfolios and demand higher profitability on new issues.

The meeting of central bankers, academics, politicians and businessmen in Jackson Hole – the mountain area of the state of Wyoming, in the United States – which began this Thursday, marks the economic week and the start of the course. The summit, which lasts until Saturday, has an impact not only on the world's leading economy, but on that of the entire planet. It is expected that the president of the Federal Reserve (the Fed) of the USA, the country's central bank, Kevin Warsh, who replaced Jerome Powell last May, will give clues this Friday in his speech as host about his policy against inflation. In the time he has been in office, he has not yet clarified it. Despite assuring that his objective is that the general increase in prices be 2%, far from the current level, he has not explained what path he will follow to achieve it. This has generated doubts among investors.

The meeting of the Governing Council of the European Central Bank (ECB) has been transitional. After raising interest rates by about 0.25 percentage points last month, Frankfurt has avoided making a move while awaiting developments in the Middle East and has kept them at 2.25% this Thursday.

After three consecutive increases (March, April, and May), the daily one-year Euribor in June, the main reference for variable interest rate mortgages, has moderated and experienced a slight decrease compared to the previous month. The indicator closed the month at 2.728%, and therefore, an average in June of 2.798%, below the 2.8% of the previous month. In any case, the amount paid by mortgagors will continue to rise, with an increase of 66.40 euros per month and 796.8 euros per year on average, as it is compared to the 2.081% that existed a year ago.

The war in the Middle East that began on February 28 with attacks by the United States and Israel on Iran has, obviously, had an economic impact. After four months, and with the agreement between the United States and Iran, it is difficult to quantify the total cost of the war in economic terms. But what is clear is that the impact has fallen directly on citizens' pockets and has weakened economic growth in many areas of the world, especially in Asia-Pacific, with greater dependence on Gulf oil.

If we had had this conversation in January, most economists were clear: 2026 was going to be the year of interest rate cuts. But, as the months have passed, the analysis has changed radically. Everything points to us ending the year with hikes.

The Federal Reserve (the Fed, the central bank of the United States) has decided to keep interest rates unchanged, despite the rising cost of living in recent months, the agency reported in a statement released this Wednesday. The meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC, the internal body that makes monetary policy decisions) held between Tuesday and Wednesday was the first chaired by Kevin Warsh, who has aligned himself only partially with the requests of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, who since his return to the White House had demanded a cut in the price of money to boost economic growth.

Bad times are coming for holders of variable-rate mortgages. The daily 12-month Euribor, the main reference for this type of loan for home purchases, has closed the month with an average above 2.8% (2.804%) and is heading towards 3%, according to analysts. Thus, the monthly payment for an average mortgage of 174,132 euros with Euribor plus one point, which was 833.11 euros, will rise to 900.39 euros, an increase of 67.28 euros more or 807.36 euros more per year.

The European Central Bank (ECB) remains cautious. The banking institution has once again avoided making a move prematurely and, despite the war in Iran and the rebound in inflation, has decided this Thursday to keep interest rates at 2% for the seventh consecutive meeting. In this way, the financial entity chaired by Christine Lagarde keeps its powder dry in case the situation worsens and, in fact, has already warned of "the high uncertainty" of the Eurozone's economic future due to the war initiated by Donald Trump.

The daily one-year Euribor, the main reference for variable-rate mortgages, closed April with a new increase, reaching 2.848%. The average stood at 2.747%, compared to 2.143% a year ago, and a new increase is added to that of March. Consequently, this evolution, which places this reference at the levels of September 2024, means the average mortgage (173,280 euros, according to INE data from February, over 25 years) will increase its monthly installment by 55.94 euros or 671.28 annually, to 890.60 euros per month or 10,687.2 euros per year.