This article is being written from the 41st floor of one of the many superlative hotels in Dubai. 

The future of the world is being decided these days in the petroleum-blue waters of Hormuz. The headline is blunt, but it didn't scare Captain Ibrahim. Business comes before Trump's war. And business is in crisis because of Trump's war. 

The war in Iran threatens to cause an economic meltdown even worse than that resulting from the 1973 oil crisis. This was the warning issued Monday by Fatih Birol, executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA). Almost a month after the first US and Israeli attacks on Iran, we review the key events of a war that has already put the global economy on alert and could have significant geopolitical consequences.

On October 6, 1973, thousands of Israeli soldiers were forced to eat. That day, the country was celebrating Yom Kippur, one of Judaism's holiest holidays, characterized by fasting and prayer, when it was attacked militarily by Egypt and Syria. Many members of the army had to postpone their celebrations. This war, which lasted about three weeks, was another episode in the Arab-Israeli conflict. But at the same time, it marked a turning point for the global economy, as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC, comprised mainly of Arab states) implemented a crude oil embargo on Western countries (the United States and some allies, primarily European), which caused prices to skyrocket and triggered the first of the oil crises of the 1970s and early 1980s.

Although a growing number of voices argue that Israel dragged the US into the war against Iran, and that Israeli bombs killed its supreme leader, the Jewish state has not been the primary target of Tehran's attacks. That distinction, by far, belongs to the United Arab Emirates, which has suffered nearly 2,000 attacks since the start of hostilities. Their neighbors in the Persian Gulf have also not been spared from being targeted by Iranian drones and missiles. However, so far, none have responded to these aggressions. Is this situation sustainable?

The world depends on oil supplies from the Middle East, and now all eyes are on how The US and Israeli war against Iran drives up the price of Brent crude. and anticipates a global energy crisis. But there is another critical resource for sustaining life, very scarce in the region and infinitely more vulnerable: water. The countries of this desert region have responded to the lack of water by building desalination plants that make seawater drinkable. But this technological marvel has also become a strategic vulnerability: in these three weeks of war, there have already been attacks against these plants or very close to them. If they become targets, the impact would be devastating, since there are no alternative sources of supply.

You don't need to be an economist to realize the astronomical losses that the current war with Iran could represent for the Gulf petro-monarchies, especially if it continues for an extended period. Aside from the costs associated with the destruction of some of their infrastructure, the disruption of maritime trade through the Strait of Hormuz It is a serious headache for states that derive between 60% and 85% of their revenue from oil and gas sales. However, the long-term cost of this war could be quite high for another reason: it threatens their plans to diversify their economies and end their dependence on oil.

In Spain, the destabilization of the Persian Gulf countries does not go unnoticed by the economic and business world, which in recent years has seen trade ties with the Arab monarchies of the region grow steadily. The US and Israeli attack on Iran not only "looks like it will last quite a while," in the words of Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares, but could also have unforeseen "repercussions." And it is these repercussions that are already affecting this region of the Middle East, which includes Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates—the two largest economies in the region—Qatar, Kuwait, Oman, and Bahrain. All of them form the Gulf Cooperation Council.

Hejoint US-Israeli attack against Iran It had been brewing for some time in the offices of Washington and Tel Aviv, but the imminence of the offensive didn't become clear until the day before it began. This short window of opportunity and the rapid spread of the conflict, with Tehran's response against several countries in the regionThe closure of airspace has taken citizens around the world by surprise, particularly those who were in the Persian Gulf on Saturday, whether working, on vacation, or traveling. Many are now stranded, uncertain of when they will be able to return home. For this reason, the Spanish government has already begun evacuating 30,000 Spaniards from the region, as announced by Foreign Minister José Manuel Albares at the press conference following the cabinet meeting. He explained that 175 Spanish citizens are already flying to Madrid from Abu Dhabi and are scheduled to arrive at Barajas Airport at 7:00 PM. He urged all Spaniards in the area to register as travelers to help keep track of the number of people in the Middle East. A request that the Catalan government has also made—currently counting 1,200 Catalans—with the aim of being able to send instructions for their return to Catalonia if the violence escalates. In fact, the Minister of Foreign Action, Jaume Duch, has assumed that the number of citizens is higher: "These are the people we would like to identify themselves, so that we have the means to know who they are and where they are, and to be in contact with them," he said. According to data from Idescat, 6,115 Catalans live in the Middle East.

The emergency Arab-Islamic summit held this Monday in Doha was organized against the clock after Last week's Israeli attack on Hamas leaders in Qatari territoryThe incident called into question the emirate's role as a regional mediator and forced its leaders to act quickly to avoid losing influence in an increasingly fragile environment. The meeting brought together heads of state and foreign ministers from more than twenty countries, with the aim of establishing a common position in the face of the escalating violence and sending a clear political message: Israel must be stopped.

Last week, Donald Trump traveled to the Middle East and made headlines. The American president met with the new Syrian president Ahmed al Sharaa, after years of sanctions in Damascus. In a turn against Washington hawks, Trump also said he was open to negotiations with Iran over its nuclear program. will have an equally important impact on future geopolitics.