Financial markets seem unfazed. Despite the war between the United States and Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the epicenter of the conflict, and repeated warnings from major international organizations about the risks of a prolonged escalation, the reaction has, for the moment, been one of containment. Or, at least, of a certain indifference. The world's main stock exchanges are trading near all-time highs, and in some cases continue to break records, as if the geopolitical background noise is being muffled by a confidence that, even today, is holding up better than many anticipated. It's not just a matter of markets: household behavior also doesn't seem particularly altered.The stock market is not always a good predictor of the economic future. Sometimes it is right, but it often underestimates risks, especially when they are complex or difficult to quantify. Is this the case? The economic dynamics of the main economies – also the Catalan one – remain relatively solid, at least for now. First-quarter corporate results have been, in general terms, positive and have reinforced the perception that global growth maintains a certain favorable inertia, despite the accumulation of shocks and uncertainties.To this optimism is added another key element: the growing expectation about the impact that artificial intelligence can have on productivity. Not in a distant future, but already today. The latest advances, both in capabilities and applications, fuel the perception of a far-reaching economic transformation, which is not limited to specialized technological sectors, but is beginning to extend to the economy as a whole. If you tried an AI application a few years ago –or even a few months ago– and it disappointed you, try it again. And if you haven't done so yet, the time has come. The qualitative leap is evident, and its transformative potential, difficult to ignore. You will be amazed!Macroeconomic data confirm that the economy is resisting better than could have been feared. In the Spanish case, GDP grew by 2.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, slightly above what had been forecast before the outbreak of the conflict. This growth is healthy and rests mainly on domestic demand, with a prominent role for household consumption and investment that consolidates the momentum of recent quarters. High-frequency indicators suggest that this inertia is being maintained, even though the conflict has already lasted two months: household spending continues to advance strongly, especially in items sensitive to confidence such as leisure, restaurants, or, more recently, fashion, furniture, and decoration.To all this is added a factor often forgotten, but key to understanding the reaction, so far contained, of the price of energy: before the outbreak of the conflict, global oil reserves were at historically high levels. It is true that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has generated a significant deficit in the global production of oil and gas – insufficient, at the moment, to meet demand – and that reserves are being reduced rapidly. But the starting point was relatively favorable.Finally, there is an implicit calculation –risky, but fundamental– that helps explain the markets' serenity. From the outset, they have assumed that the conflict would be short-lived. Perhaps because a prolonged scenario would end up having a serious impact on the global economy, also on the North American one, in a context marked, moreover, by the fall in popularity of the President of the United States a few months before the midterm elections. The fact is that oil and gas futures markets continue to anticipate a contained and time-limited price increase.It is, however, a risky calculation. The situation could turn sour, the conflict intensify and drag on. In this case, the scenario would change substantially: supply problems in some Asian or less resourced countries, a much less accommodating attitude from the markets, sustained tensions in energy prices and, finally, a clear impact on household budgets. We are not yet at this point. Time is running out, but, for the moment, the economy is holding up and looking the other way.

Spain has kerosene reserves for 90 days if we consider operational reserves (the stocks kept by oil companies and airports to ensure the daily supply of this essential fossil fuel for aviation) and strategic reserves (the inventory held by the State). This means that if kerosene stopped arriving or being produced in the State from tomorrow, there would be reserves of this fuel until the beginning of August.

The war in the Middle East and the new world disorder driven from the White House by Donald Trump has losers. The biggest losers are the populations suffering bombardments and embargoes and blockades. But there are also those who win. And by a lot. Some are those who play on event prediction platforms, as is the case with Polymarket. And also those who bet on markets based on the unpredictable statements of the US President, Donald Trump. More than one has fattened their portfolio with these plays with a certain aroma of insider information.

Very few people know that oil was produced in Collserola. In the middle of the last century, owners of farmhouses in this mountain range surrounding Barcelona owned olive trees, made self-consumption oil from them, and sold the surplus. But with the abandonment of the countryside throughout Catalonia, all this productive activity was also lost and the olive trees of Collserola, some centuries old, were swallowed by the forest. If in 1956 21.5% of Collserola were cultivated land, now it is only 6.4%. This not only represents a loss of the typical biodiversity of the area, but also has a dangerous collateral effect: it increases the risk of fire.

The rise in the price of oil and its derivatives due to the conflict in the Middle East has left its mark on Repsol's results for the first quarter of the year, that is, between January and March, the month in which the war began. The leading oil company in the State has obtained 929 million euros during this period, representing a 154% increase compared to the first quarter of 2025. The profits are the result of the positive equity effect recorded (593 million euros) from the revaluation of its inventories due to the precise increase in crude oil, as the company explained this Thursday in a statement. The company's adjusted net result (which specifically measures the performance of its businesses) reached 873 million euros between January and March, a 57% increase compared to the same period last year.

Tankers that left the Persian Gulf before the war are now arriving at port. That is to say: the worst moment in terms of hydrocarbon availability is yet to come. But the disruption will not be permanent. For a paradoxical reason. US stocks hit their all-time high this week. Financial markets are telling Trump that they want peace and for him to stop the war. It is a market that Trump can manipulate with tricks for his own benefit, but hardly to encourage him to wage war if they do not want it. They are his friends and they have expressed themselves clearly. Nevertheless, the moment is dangerous. The temptation to flee forward will be there. But I believe that the Persian leaders, fanatical but not stupid, will understand, and that in a relatively short period an understanding will be reached that will allow both sides to claim victory. I think it will include an open Strait of Hormuz.

After Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices have plummeted in the markets. Specifically, on Friday afternoon, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil – the benchmark in Europe – fell by more than 10% and stood at around $89. Futures for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude—the benchmark in the United States—stood at around $83, almost 12% less than on Thursday. At some points during the conflict, the price of a barrel of Brent had touched $120. Despite Friday's drop, the price of oil remains above the $72 it stood at just before the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran.

The Spanish oil company Repsol has signed an agreement with the Ministry of Hydrocarbons of Venezuela and the state-owned company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) that will allow it to resume control of operations and increase oil production in the South American country.

Monday of strong tension in international financial markets. The failure of peace negotiations between Iran and the United States during this weekend has transferred geopolitical tension directly to the trading floors, which have once again turned red. Donald Trump's order to block the Strait of Hormuz –and his direct threat to sink any Iranian ship that ignores the siege– has set off all alarms about global supply.

The war in Iran does not impact our economy due to our economic and commercial relations with the area, but rather due to the effect on energy markets, especially oil and gas, which it has and will have in the near future. What truly weighs is not Tehran on our trade and our prices, it is Hormuz. We only need to recall the advanced CPI figure for March, 3.3%, one point higher than in February, with no change in the underlying inflation and, therefore, due to the increase in energy prices, in a context of weak growth in Europe and a not negligible slowdown of about one point in Spain and Catalonia, where the average citizen does not perceive growth improvements, per capita income does not change, and where the Treasury will be one of the beneficiaries of this higher inflation given that it does not correct tax progressivity (essentially income tax).

The first oil crisis, that of 1973-1974, ended up generating, especially in the developed Western world, a situation that was defined as "stagflation", that is, the simultaneity of economic stagnation and inflation. The world had come from a place where the two concepts were quite opposed, given that stagnation was fought with expansionary policies that were inflationary and inflation could be reduced with stabilization policies (i.e., stagnation or contraction). The repetition of expansionary policies simultaneous to the existence of strong supply inflation —the increase in the price of oil was due to unforeseen extra-economic causes—, ended up meaning that economic stimulus policies were useless. Only the same stagnation that was sought to be combated was achieved, but with the addition of inflation.

Markets have already reacted to the news of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, which includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's consumed oil and natural gas circulates. Asia's main stock markets have led the green trend in this last session, a trend that European and North American stock markets have subsequently followed.

Spain and Catalonia continue to be European exceptions regarding the performance of the economy and job creation. With the data for March presented by the Ministry of Labour, Spain reaches for the first time in history the mark of 22 million Social Security affiliates, 3.4 million more than in 2018, when Pedro Sánchez arrived at Moncloa. In the case of Catalonia, the record was reached last summer, with 3.9 million affiliates, then it fell slightly and is now about to recover (3.88 million). Unemployment also decreased by 23,000 people in the State and by 3,777 in Catalonia. At the end of the month, we will have the data from the EPA survey and, therefore, a more accurate snapshot of the unemployment rate.

The OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed this Sunday to increase its oil production by 206,000 barrels per day starting May 1, despite the war in Iran. In fact, the agreement is little more than a symbolic gesture, because the implementation of the increase will not be possible while the war continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, through which much of the oil from the members of the oil cartel exits to the markets.

Thursday, ARA put on its front page: “The expectation of a quick end to the war is encouraging markets”. Indeed, on Wednesday the Ibex-35 had risen by 3.16% because the conviction had spread that the war would end soon. However, on Thursday itself the index lost part of the previous day’s gains. This is tantamount to saying that the stock markets – that is, financiers – do not have clear ideas about how the war will impact the economy. Since the first bomb fell, the Ibex-35, like the American Dow Jones, has only fallen by 5%. To give us an idea of what the stock market does when a real crisis begins, at the end of 2007, and in a few weeks, the Ibex-35 fell by 33%, and did not begin to recover until seven years later. In contrast to the bewilderment of financiers, engineers show a solid pessimism. The International Energy Agency has published a ten-point plan of measures for governments to adopt to save energy, and the European Union commissioner has sent a letter to governments suggesting, among other things, rationing gasoline, promoting teleworking, and even prohibiting the circulation of private vehicles on Sundays (a measure in force during the energy crisis of the 70s). The basis for this view is that the energy infrastructures in the Persian Gulf have been so damaged that, even if the war ended today, supply would not be able to return to normal for several months.In this context, it is interesting to compare the Spanish government's response to that of the Chinese. The former has reacted by lowering the VAT levied on fuels, which has gone from 21% to 10%. This has meant that, despite the price of gasoline rising by 15%, the consumer only perceives a 4% increase. On the other hand, the Chinese government raised prices by 13% on the 23rd. The former, implicitly optimistic, tries to gain time, while the latter – prudent – prepares its population for the worst, and prefers them to start saving fuel from the outset.

The European Union is studying possible measures such as rationing fuel and releasing more oil from strategic reserves in the face of the risk of a "lasting" energy shock resulting from the war in the Middle East, European Energy Commissioner Dan Jørgensen assured this Friday in an interview with the British newspaper Financial Times. The bloc is evaluating "all options," according to Jørgensen, who warned that "energy prices will be higher for a long time."

The European Union is considering possible measures such as rationing fuel and releasing more oil from strategic reserves in the face of the risk of a "lasting" energy shock stemming from the war in the Middle East, European Commissioner for Energy Dan Jørgensen said this Friday in an interview with the British newspaperFinancial Times. The bloc is evaluating "all options", according to Jørgensen, who warned that "energy prices will be higher for a long time".

The tension around the war with Iran has once again shaken energy markets and driven the price of oil above 110 dollars a barrel. After Donald Trump's speech, in which he avoided specifying when the Strait of Hormuz could be reopened, investors reacted nervously and accelerated crude oil purchases. The West Texas Intermediate (WTI), a benchmark in the United States, has climbed above this threshold —the highest level since March 9— and is heading for its most intense daily increase since 2020, while Brent, a benchmark in Europe, also maintains an upward trend in a context marked by geopolitical uncertainty and the risk of further supply disruptions.

The crisis in energy markets stemming from the war in the Middle East will worsen "significantly" heading into April compared to March, according to the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol. The Turkish director, who visited the podcast of Nicolai Tangen, CEO of Norges Bank Investment Management (NBIM), explained that while during the last month shipments from the Middle East were still arriving at ports, by April "there will be nothing".

The escalation of the war in the Middle East, with the entry of the Houthis into the conflict, has sent oil prices soaring this Monday, reaching highs since the beginning of the war. During the day, the price of a barrel of Brent crude exceeded 115 dollars, although it later fell slightly and by the afternoon was around 112 dollars per barrel.