In Barcelona it is impossible to find someone who knows anything about Barcelona. The general response is total silence. Only a young man, after thinking about it a lot, lets go: “Ah, yes, you have Barça”. Possibly, however, the same would happen in the Catalan capital if we asked what people know about Venezuelan Barcelona. Venezuela, in the same way as Catalonia, has a city called Barcelona. It is the capital of the Anzoátegui region, in the northeast of the country, where a good part of the so-called Orinoco Belt is located, which concentrates the largest oil reserves in the world and which is expected to become the center of foreign investment now after the partial lifting of American sanctions. There, for example, the American Chevron operates.

Russian oil does not disappear from the global market when it leaves Baltic or Far East ports. Often, it simply reappears under another name or label. In the waters surrounding Singapore – one of the planet's main energy and maritime hubs – hundreds of thousands of barrels of crude oil and fuel oil from Russia are transferred from ship to ship, mixed with fuels from other origins, and subsequently re-exported to Asian markets under a new commercial identity. The process, known as blending, supported by a system increasingly reliant on the so-called “ghost fleet” of convenience tankers, dilutes the product's traceability and allows derivatives linked to Russian oil to continue circulating legally within the global energy system despite Western sanctions.

Ryanair completes fiscal year 2026 with a 40% jump in profit, to a record figure of 2.26 billion euros. The low-cost airline has earned 15.54 billion euros between April 2025 and March this year, 11% more than in the previous fiscal year. The economic improvements have been recorded following a 4% increase in passengers, who exceeded 208 million in the 12 recorded months.

The executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, warned this Monday that the cushion offered by commercial reserves accumulated before the war in the Middle East and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz will end in a matter of weeks. Reserves "are depleting very rapidly," Birol noted in statements to the press collected by Efe during the first day of the G7 Finance Ministers' meeting in Paris.

The oil sector has lost the hope that the war in Iran will be shortThe fuel sector is, it must be said, a sector with many intricacies. "Every gas station is a world unto itself," observes Ramon Fitó, owner of the Fitó service station in Badalona, the oldest in Catalonia. The experience, therefore, is not the same for an operator with commercial and storage capacity as it is for a small local chain. Even so, everyone who does not have their own refineries has seen their margins tighten. "We pass on the prices day by day. And, evidently, we have been forced to buy a more expensive product," observes Payá.has left Brent around $110 this weekAnomalous competition

The exceptional visit of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, to China has ended without a clear path for the geopolitical tensions caused by his administration. The unfounded optimism of the New York executive has not served to calm the market: on the contrary, the end of the trip coincided, this Friday, with the most intense rise in the price of the Brent barrel of the entire week. The European reference for crude oil skyrocketed at half past five in the afternoon, approaching 109 dollars. It is already on its way to the highs since the beginning of the war, close to 115 dollars, set at the beginning of the month.

Financial markets seem unfazed. Despite the war between the United States and Iran, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz as the epicenter of the conflict, and repeated warnings from major international organizations about the risks of a prolonged escalation, the reaction has, for the moment, been one of containment. Or, at least, of a certain indifference. The world's main stock exchanges are trading near all-time highs, and in some cases continue to break records, as if the geopolitical background noise is being muffled by a confidence that, even today, is holding up better than many anticipated. It's not just a matter of markets: household behavior also doesn't seem particularly altered.The stock market is not always a good predictor of the economic future. Sometimes it is right, but it often underestimates risks, especially when they are complex or difficult to quantify. Is this the case? The economic dynamics of the main economies – also the Catalan one – remain relatively solid, at least for now. First-quarter corporate results have been, in general terms, positive and have reinforced the perception that global growth maintains a certain favorable inertia, despite the accumulation of shocks and uncertainties.To this optimism is added another key element: the growing expectation about the impact that artificial intelligence can have on productivity. Not in a distant future, but already today. The latest advances, both in capabilities and applications, fuel the perception of a far-reaching economic transformation, which is not limited to specialized technological sectors, but is beginning to extend to the economy as a whole. If you tried an AI application a few years ago –or even a few months ago– and it disappointed you, try it again. And if you haven't done so yet, the time has come. The qualitative leap is evident, and its transformative potential, difficult to ignore. You will be amazed!Macroeconomic data confirm that the economy is resisting better than could have been feared. In the Spanish case, GDP grew by 2.7% year-on-year in the first quarter, slightly above what had been forecast before the outbreak of the conflict. This growth is healthy and rests mainly on domestic demand, with a prominent role for household consumption and investment that consolidates the momentum of recent quarters. High-frequency indicators suggest that this inertia is being maintained, even though the conflict has already lasted two months: household spending continues to advance strongly, especially in items sensitive to confidence such as leisure, restaurants, or, more recently, fashion, furniture, and decoration.To all this is added a factor often forgotten, but key to understanding the reaction, so far contained, of the price of energy: before the outbreak of the conflict, global oil reserves were at historically high levels. It is true that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has generated a significant deficit in the global production of oil and gas – insufficient, at the moment, to meet demand – and that reserves are being reduced rapidly. But the starting point was relatively favorable.Finally, there is an implicit calculation –risky, but fundamental– that helps explain the markets' serenity. From the outset, they have assumed that the conflict would be short-lived. Perhaps because a prolonged scenario would end up having a serious impact on the global economy, also on the North American one, in a context marked, moreover, by the fall in popularity of the President of the United States a few months before the midterm elections. The fact is that oil and gas futures markets continue to anticipate a contained and time-limited price increase.It is, however, a risky calculation. The situation could turn sour, the conflict intensify and drag on. In this case, the scenario would change substantially: supply problems in some Asian or less resourced countries, a much less accommodating attitude from the markets, sustained tensions in energy prices and, finally, a clear impact on household budgets. We are not yet at this point. Time is running out, but, for the moment, the economy is holding up and looking the other way.

Spain has kerosene reserves for 90 days if we consider operational reserves (the stocks kept by oil companies and airports to ensure the daily supply of this essential fossil fuel for aviation) and strategic reserves (the inventory held by the State). This means that if kerosene stopped arriving or being produced in the State from tomorrow, there would be reserves of this fuel until the beginning of August.

The war in the Middle East and the new world disorder driven from the White House by Donald Trump has losers. The biggest losers are the populations suffering bombardments and embargoes and blockades. But there are also those who win. And by a lot. Some are those who play on event prediction platforms, as is the case with Polymarket. And also those who bet on markets based on the unpredictable statements of the US President, Donald Trump. More than one has fattened their portfolio with these plays with a certain aroma of insider information.

Very few people know that oil was produced in Collserola. In the middle of the last century, owners of farmhouses in this mountain range surrounding Barcelona owned olive trees, made self-consumption oil from them, and sold the surplus. But with the abandonment of the countryside throughout Catalonia, all this productive activity was also lost and the olive trees of Collserola, some centuries old, were swallowed by the forest. If in 1956 21.5% of Collserola were cultivated land, now it is only 6.4%. This not only represents a loss of the typical biodiversity of the area, but also has a dangerous collateral effect: it increases the risk of fire.

The rise in the price of oil and its derivatives due to the conflict in the Middle East has left its mark on Repsol's results for the first quarter of the year, that is, between January and March, the month in which the war began. The leading oil company in the State has obtained 929 million euros during this period, representing a 154% increase compared to the first quarter of 2025. The profits are the result of the positive equity effect recorded (593 million euros) from the revaluation of its inventories due to the precise increase in crude oil, as the company explained this Thursday in a statement. The company's adjusted net result (which specifically measures the performance of its businesses) reached 873 million euros between January and March, a 57% increase compared to the same period last year.

Tankers that left the Persian Gulf before the war are now arriving at port. That is to say: the worst moment in terms of hydrocarbon availability is yet to come. But the disruption will not be permanent. For a paradoxical reason. US stocks hit their all-time high this week. Financial markets are telling Trump that they want peace and for him to stop the war. It is a market that Trump can manipulate with tricks for his own benefit, but hardly to encourage him to wage war if they do not want it. They are his friends and they have expressed themselves clearly. Nevertheless, the moment is dangerous. The temptation to flee forward will be there. But I believe that the Persian leaders, fanatical but not stupid, will understand, and that in a relatively short period an understanding will be reached that will allow both sides to claim victory. I think it will include an open Strait of Hormuz.

After Iran announced the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, oil and gas prices have plummeted in the markets. Specifically, on Friday afternoon, the price of a barrel of Brent crude oil – the benchmark in Europe – fell by more than 10% and stood at around $89. Futures for West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude—the benchmark in the United States—stood at around $83, almost 12% less than on Thursday. At some points during the conflict, the price of a barrel of Brent had touched $120. Despite Friday's drop, the price of oil remains above the $72 it stood at just before the attack by the United States and Israel on Iran.

The Spanish oil company Repsol has signed an agreement with the Ministry of Hydrocarbons of Venezuela and the state-owned company Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) that will allow it to resume control of operations and increase oil production in the South American country.

Monday of strong tension in international financial markets. The failure of peace negotiations between Iran and the United States during this weekend has transferred geopolitical tension directly to the trading floors, which have once again turned red. Donald Trump's order to block the Strait of Hormuz –and his direct threat to sink any Iranian ship that ignores the siege– has set off all alarms about global supply.

The war in Iran does not impact our economy due to our economic and commercial relations with the area, but rather due to the effect on energy markets, especially oil and gas, which it has and will have in the near future. What truly weighs is not Tehran on our trade and our prices, it is Hormuz. We only need to recall the advanced CPI figure for March, 3.3%, one point higher than in February, with no change in the underlying inflation and, therefore, due to the increase in energy prices, in a context of weak growth in Europe and a not negligible slowdown of about one point in Spain and Catalonia, where the average citizen does not perceive growth improvements, per capita income does not change, and where the Treasury will be one of the beneficiaries of this higher inflation given that it does not correct tax progressivity (essentially income tax).

The first oil crisis, that of 1973-1974, ended up generating, especially in the developed Western world, a situation that was defined as "stagflation", that is, the simultaneity of economic stagnation and inflation. The world had come from a place where the two concepts were quite opposed, given that stagnation was fought with expansionary policies that were inflationary and inflation could be reduced with stabilization policies (i.e., stagnation or contraction). The repetition of expansionary policies simultaneous to the existence of strong supply inflation —the increase in the price of oil was due to unforeseen extra-economic causes—, ended up meaning that economic stimulus policies were useless. Only the same stagnation that was sought to be combated was achieved, but with the addition of inflation.

Markets have already reacted to the news of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, which includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's consumed oil and natural gas circulates. Asia's main stock markets have led the green trend in this last session, a trend that European and North American stock markets have subsequently followed.

Spain and Catalonia continue to be European exceptions regarding the performance of the economy and job creation. With the data for March presented by the Ministry of Labour, Spain reaches for the first time in history the mark of 22 million Social Security affiliates, 3.4 million more than in 2018, when Pedro Sánchez arrived at Moncloa. In the case of Catalonia, the record was reached last summer, with 3.9 million affiliates, then it fell slightly and is now about to recover (3.88 million). Unemployment also decreased by 23,000 people in the State and by 3,777 in Catalonia. At the end of the month, we will have the data from the EPA survey and, therefore, a more accurate snapshot of the unemployment rate.

The OPEC+ alliance, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed this Sunday to increase its oil production by 206,000 barrels per day starting May 1, despite the war in Iran. In fact, the agreement is little more than a symbolic gesture, because the implementation of the increase will not be possible while the war continues and the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, through which much of the oil from the members of the oil cartel exits to the markets.