After 88 days of internet blocking, the Iranian regime has this week eased network access restrictions for the majority of the population. The blackout has been the longest in the country's history, indeed the longest in the planet's history, and censorship continues.

The President of the United States, Donald Trump, announced this Friday that he is about to make his "final decision" on Iran. "I will now meet in the Situation Room to make a final decision," he posted on his social network, Truth Social, where he also hinted at some of his main demands.

After weeks of statements – in one direction and the opposite – from Donald Trump on the viability of an agreement with Iran to stop the war, this Thursday it seemed that the options for this to become a reality were closer than ever. Several media outlets, citing White House sources, have reported that the negotiating teams of the United States and Iran have reached a preliminary agreement to unblock the Strait of Hormuz and extend the ceasefire for 60 days, and that only the definitive green light from the American president was missing. Shortly thereafter, however, Tehran denied it and assured that the agreement is not yet closed, while the American vice president, J.D. Vance, stated that both sides are "very close" to an agreement, but that the understanding has not yet been reached.

The Iranian state broadcaster said on Wednesday that it had obtained the draft of a preliminary agreement between the United States and Iran that includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in exchange for the lifting of the US naval blockade. According to this information, which referred to the agreement as "initial and unofficial," Iran would manage the strait in cooperation with Oman, so that both "consolidate their power" in the area.

The United States launched new attacks against southern Iran early Tuesday, targeting missile bases and ships attempting to lay mines, the U.S. Central Command reported. In a statement, it affirmed that these were "self-defense" attacks designed to protect American troops from "threats posed by Iranian forces." Iranian media reported that three explosions were heard in Bandar Abbas, on the coast of the Strait of Hormuz, a major port and Iranian naval base.

When the agreement between the United States and Iran seemed imminent, Donald Trump has made a new U-turn and has conditioned the understanding on the Gulf countries normalizing relations with Israel, its historic regional rival. In a message on his Truth Social network, the American president has urged the mediating states, starting with Qatar and Saudi Arabia, to sign the so-called Abraham Accords – which explicitly include this normalization – if they want the pact that would allow the Strait of Hormuz to be reopened to prosper.

The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz seems closer than ever. The United States and Iran, which have been negotiating for months through Pakistani mediators, have reportedly reached a preliminary agreement to end the war and reopen this maritime route, according to U.S. officials cited by the New York Times and Associated Press. Both sides are celebrating that there is consensus in some areas of the agreement, but they disagree on how and when the understanding should be announced.

Iran and the United States are very close to an agreement. Members of both delegations stated this Saturday that significant progress has been made in the peace talks. Pakistan, which is mediating, even considers that the possibility of an agreement "is closer than ever" and expects "a crucial breakthrough over the weekend".

It has taken almost three months since Donald Trump started the war in Iran for the United States Congress to show signs of life. On Tuesday, the Senate managed to approve for the first time a resolution to try to force the US president to end a conflict that the legislature never authorized. The milestone was possible due to the change of mind by four Republican senators, some of whom had already warned the tycoon that if the campaign exceeded 60 days, they would withdraw their support. This Thursday, a similar resolution was also expected to successfully pass the vote in the House of Representatives. But the Republicans cancelled it at the last minute, given the certainty that they would not have enough support to overthrow it.

The blockade of the Strait of Hormuz due to the war in the Persian Gulf is causing an increase in fertilizer prices, thus putting the agri-food sector's value chain at risk and threatening to further elevate inflation. For this reason, Brussels presented a plan this Tuesday to alleviate the fertilizer supply crisis, although the main measures are limited to diverting existing European funds and advancing subsidies already allocated to member states through the common agricultural policy (CAP).

Since February 28, when the joint offensive of Israel and the United States began, the regime of Iran has disconnected its more than 90 million citizens from the internet. Eighty days of digital blackout, the longest blackout in history. Previously, Tehran had cut off its connection to the world whenever there had been waves of protests and also during the war last June.

Zaki Laïdi (Constantine, Algeria, 1957) political scientist and professor of political science, was special advisor to Josep Borrell, when he was the high representative of European diplomacy, for five years in Brussels. He has visited Barcelona at the invitation of Cidob to present the book The hedgers (Cambridge University Press).

Representatives from Israel and Lebanon agreed this Friday in Washington to extend the ceasefire for 45 more days. The truce was declared on April 16, although it has not been respected. The announcement was made by the United States, which is acting as a mediator. Talks will resume on June 2 and 3, and in a military meeting at the Pentagon on May 29. Israel and Lebanon, which do not have diplomatic relations, had held two previous rounds of contacts in Washington.

Donald Trump has left China –where he met with Xi Jinping– with kind words, but without having resolved any of his concerns: neither the blockade in Hormuz, nor the Taiwan crisis, nor the trade balance. Manel Ollé, professor of Chinese studies at the UPF and expert in the Asian giant, analyzes the meeting between the two leaders, which has been more marked by gestures than by tangible agreements.

The exceptional visit of the President of the United States, Donald Trump, to China has ended without a clear path for the geopolitical tensions caused by his administration. The unfounded optimism of the New York executive has not served to calm the market: on the contrary, the end of the trip coincided, this Friday, with the most intense rise in the price of the Brent barrel of the entire week. The European reference for crude oil skyrocketed at half past five in the afternoon, approaching 109 dollars. It is already on its way to the highs since the beginning of the war, close to 115 dollars, set at the beginning of the month.

For the first time since the start of the truce between the United States and Iran, Kuwait has denounced attacks on its territory this Sunday. The United Arab Emirates have also reported missiles heading towards the country, which have been intercepted by air defense systems, according to Dubai. These episodes add to the crossfire of recent days between Washington and Tehran, and cast further doubt on the truce in the Middle East. Meanwhile, developments on the diplomatic front are few and far between.

The U.S. Department of Justice has opened an investigation into a series of operations related to the oil market carried out at particularly opportune moments: just before major announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump and senior Iranian officials in the context of the war in the Middle East. According to ABC News, at least four operations are being investigated in which traders made over $2.6 billion (about 2.2 billion euros) betting that oil prices would fall just before news emerged that caused them to do so.

While the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to maritime traffic and Iran and the United States continue to negotiate under the threat of resuming armed attacks, the highest officials of Iranian and Chinese diplomacy have met in Beijing. The Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, traveled to Beijing to meet, this Wednesday, with his counterpart, Wang Yi. It was the first personal meeting since the conflict began. Wang Yi acknowledged the close economic and political ties with Iran and insisted on calling the war "illegitimate". The Chinese diplomat once again called for a comprehensive ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He also reiterated China's opposition to sanctions.Wang positioned himself in favor of a solution involving the region's actors. He assured that the Gulf and Middle Eastern countries "should take the reins of their future" and that China supports "the establishment of a regional peace and security framework led by the countries of the region". Since the beginning of the conflict, the Chinese position has been to defend the need to achieve a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to restore world trade. The closure of this route directly affects Chinese interests. China used to buy 80% of Iranian oil, and 45% of the gas and oil imported by the Asian giant circulates through this route.The meeting with the Iranian Foreign Minister comes a week before President Trump's visit to Beijing. A trip scheduled for May 14 and 15, which China has not yet officially confirmed.The war has become the focus of talks that were initially intended to restore trade relations. Donald Trump has requested Xi Jinping's cooperation to reach an agreement with Iran. At the beginning of the week, it was the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, who urged China to influence Iran to reopen Hormuz. And Marco Rubio also joined the pressure in statements to the press from Washington. A whole battery of pressures reminiscent of those deployed by the European Union for China to influence Putin to end the invasion of Ukraine, without success.Beijing's ambiguity

So far, China has limited itself to advocating for diplomatic solutions to conflicts, without getting involved. In the case of Iran, Chinese economic interests are clearer, but it remains to be seen whether China will do anything more than limit itself to statements, as in the case of Ukraine. Unlike the United States, accustomed to using military force, China bases its influence on trade. China has no allies, it has commercial partners. It limits itself to defending its interests under the axiom of not interfering in the internal affairs of its partners. The Asian giant has woven a network of commercial interests and investments to guarantee access to ports and trade routes. Routes and agreements that serve to supply itself with raw materials and to deliver its exports. For example, in these times of energy crisis, China uses its reserves to supply fuel to Southeast Asian countries, highly dependent on the Persian Gulf, and thus strengthen alliances.Officially, it is difficult for China to do anything more than make statements in defense of truces and negotiations. But it is very possible that it is supplying arms to Iran, as the United States has denounced. In the case of Russia, there is no doubt that its economic support helps Putin's regime to survive the sanctions, and there are suspicions that it exports dual-use material, civilian, but which can be used for military purposes.In the process of militarization

But in addition to the lack of will, Beijing also lacks the military capacity to confront the United States. The Chinese army has undergone a radical modernization, but it has not yet reached the level of the North American one. China currently only has 3 aircraft carriers compared to the United States' 11, and only has one military base outside its territory. But perhaps the most important thing is that the Chinese army has no experience; it has not participated in real war missions.Trump's erratic position weakens his figure and also that of the United States as a reliable ally on the international stage. This conjuncture facilitates Xi Jinping positioning himself as a stable leader and defender of international order, but it remains to be seen if China will truly benefit from the situation.In a short time, it has seen how important allies, Venezuela or Iran, for example, have been attacked and destabilized by the United States. And surely the next on the list will be Cuba. China's role as a leader of the Global South could deteriorate if it is perceived that being an ally of the Asian giant does not translate into protection against possible aggressions.

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The spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baghaei, confirmed in an interview with the state agency ISNA that Tehran is reviewing a new peace proposal from the United States. "After concluding the evaluations, Iran will convey its perspective to the Pakistani side," Baghaei stated. In the preceding hours, a text had been circulating, allegedly containing the US proposal, published by the North American outlet "Axios". Iran has dismissed this version of the text, stating it is more of a "wish list" from Washington than a plan with prospects of success. Once again, the picture is blurred by contradictory signals from both sides.

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The premise in the White House right now is one: the ceasefire continues despite the cross-border attacks on Monday between American and Iranian forces, and despite the fact that this Tuesday the United Arab Emirates (UAE) intercepted new Iranian missiles. The assertion has been triple by the American executive: in the morning, the head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, affirmed it; at noon, President Donald Trump; and in the afternoon, Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The question is no longer how long the fragile truce will last, which has managed to survive for a month, but what will make it fall. Or rather: until when will it make sense to continue talking about a humanitarian pause if attacks continue to occur.

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