Although Iran announced this Friday the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the 10-day truce agreed in Lebanon, this Saturday it has backtracked and announced that it will re-impose "strict control" over the passage. This plot twist comes after the United States maintained the blockade against Iranian ports yesterday. "Control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state and this strategic waterway is under strict management and control by the Armed Forces," announced the spokesman for the Jatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfagari, in a statement collected by the Tasnim agency.

In full negotiations between the United States and Iran for the end of the conflict, about sixty countries met this Friday in Paris to prepare an international military mission, "strictly defensive" to guarantee navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. It is a mission promoted by the President of France, Emmanuel Macron, and the British Prime Minister, Keir Starmer, and it is conditioned on a scenario of peace in the region.

"This is not defense, it's an endless spiral. We are normalizing war as if it were the only option," says Michael, holding a purple sign written in Hebrew and Arabic: the only way out is through agreements. "What we are doing is barbarism." In Paris Square in Jerusalem, next to the official residence of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, the protest that has been repeated for six weeks has been gaining intensity, although it remains a minority. But what defines these mobilizations is not only their political content, but also the police response they receive. Since the beginning of the offensive against Iran, the Israeli police have been controlling demonstrations more closely: limiting the number of participants, cordoning off public spaces, dispersing gatherings, and making almost immediate arrests.

Islamabad, Paris, Rome, Ankara, Qatar, London… Behind the scenes, international diplomacy is working against the clock to prevent the collapse of the truce between Iran and the United States. In this context, Donald Trump said this Tuesday in an interview with the New York Post that talks with Tehran could resume in the next 48 hours and that the venue would likely be Pakistan. At this point it is difficult to discern to what extent the tycoon's words are a real prediction or a wish, but they are in line with previous reports indicating that US officials are trying to resume talks with the Iranians before the ceasefire expires next Tuesday.

Adamantly defending Spain's traditional alliances while the military and dialectical escalation of Donald Trump and Benjamin Netanyahu increases puts the PP in a complicated situation. Alberto Núñez Feijóo has so far avoided confrontation with the United States and Israel even when they have attacked one of the pillars of Spanish conservatives, such as Catholicism. The Popular Party remained on the sidelines when the Israeli government vetoed Palm Sunday mass in the Holy Land, and now that the President of the USA has targeted Pope Leo XIV, Feijóo has been caught between the two.

Donald Trump's deadline to block the Strait of Hormuz expired this Monday past 10 a.m. in Washington and, during the first hour, the only visible change has been on a rhetorical level. The president has once again threatened the Iranians, warning them that any of their ships that try to overcome the siege of the US military will be "eliminated". "If any of these ships approach our blockade, they will be immediately eliminated, and we will use the same elimination system that we use against drug traffickers on boats at sea. It is fast and brutal," warned the Republican, alluding to extrajudicial executions in the Caribbean Sea against alleged narco-boats. Shortly after the Republican announced on Sunday his intention to obstruct maritime passage to economically harm the ayatollahs, Tehran warned that no port in the Persian Gulf would be safe if he tried to stop their ships.

Missiles test advertising logic, and the slogan of the grand Al Bahar hotel did not account for the Third Gulf War: "Enjoy a perfect combination of luxury and serenity".

Donald Trump's roller coaster doctrine has permeated the third Gulf War from the outset. This weekend we have seen another abrupt, precipitous turn: from the moderate optimism generated by the start of talks between Americans and Iranians in Islamabad, after the last-minute agreement on Tuesday that averted "hell" in the Middle East; to worrying pessimism due to the lack of agreement in Pakistani meeting rooms and the return to the most visceral threats between Washington and Tehran, which hint at bombing the strategic Hormuz, the epicenter of this war, again.hint at a renewed bombing of strategic Hormuz, the epicenter of this war.Tehran responded quickly, stating that it will consider it a violation of the ceasefire if military ships approach Hormuz and that, therefore, it will respond forcefully. The blockade of Hormuz by the Iranians —their strategic philosopher's stone— has indeed stifled the global economy, and with sufficient effectiveness, placing Washington in a compromised position.

The doors of the Serena hotel, where the conversations between the United States and Iran have taken place in Islamabad –the capital of Pakistan– to end six weeks of war, were barricaded by cars and security agents. Inside, American and Iranian representatives have negotiated face-to-face accompanied by Pakistani mediators, as confirmed by the White House. The meeting was the highest-level direct contact the two powers have had since the Islamic Revolution of 1979.

This Saturday, representatives from the United States and Iran will meet in Islamabad, if things don't go wrong before then, to negotiate an agreement to end six weeks of a war that has accumulated thousands of deaths, has transformed the Middle East, and has shaken the global economy. The Pakistani capital is already experiencing strict security restrictions and the participation of two high-level delegations is expected. But the 15-day ceasefire agreed upon on Wednesday is the result of the high cost of the conflict for both sides and the prospect that a military solution will not be quick. It is not currently foreseen that there is a basis for a lasting pact. The negotiation starts from distant positions, with major obstacles to overcome.

The navy of the ayatollah regime was disseminating on Thursday a map from another era: on paper, and in black and white. According to the Iranian agency ISNA, the document shows the approximate location of naval mines that the Revolutionary Guard has installed in the precious waters of the Strait of Hormuz during five weeks of war. The paper recommends alternative routes to oil tankers and other commercial vessels to safely cross the passage, avoiding the bombs.

The scope of the consequences of the war in Iran are still unpredictable. The joint attack by Israel and the United States against the Islamic Republic on February 28, and the reactivation of Tel Aviv's offensive in Lebanon, have left thousands dead, have set the Middle East ablaze, and have caused an earthquake in the world economy. But how did we get here? Why have the US embarked on a conflict that has lasted almost six weeks? And above all: at what point did Trump decide it was a good idea?

Against Iran, Trump has not won. Trump, certainly, has not lost either. The same could be said of the ayatollahs' regime, which has seen its leadership decapitated, but has responded by extending the conflict throughout the Middle East, especially to the crucial energy enclave of the Strait of Hormuz. The fairest verdict would be a draw, a tie, but a tie from which almost everyone for now – with the sole direct exception of Israel and indirect exception of Russia – has emerged worse off: the United States has not achieved the much-proclaimed change of regime in Tehran, Asia has suffered a very serious energy shortage, a hesitant Europe this time has remained on the sidelines of the calls to action from its American friend while seeing Ukraine's position weakened against Moscow, the Arab monarchies of the Gulf have lost their tourist-financial glamour and, of course, Iran has suffered a very severe attack on its political system and infrastructure.

Markets have already reacted to the news of the ceasefire between the US and Iran, which includes the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, through which 20% of the world's consumed oil and natural gas circulates. Asia's main stock markets have led the green trend in this last session, a trend that European and North American stock markets have subsequently followed.

The head of International for ARA and special envoy to Dubai, Francesc Millan, answers subscribers' questions about the war in the Middle East in a live conversation with deputy director Carla Turró.

In Damascus, the memory of war is not abstract; it is found in half-rebuilt buildings, in empty neighborhoods that have not yet been able to regain their former inhabitants, in shops that open every morning with the hope that the economy will improve. It also filters into daily conversations, where the conflict is no longer evoked as a past event, but as a possibility that could emerge from any corner.

Iran's regime is defending itself from the joint attack by the United States and Israel with a weapon that is not military, but economic: choking the transit of oil in the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world's gas and oil transit passed. But it is a selective closure: instead of mining the strait to block the passage of all ships, Tehran allows the passage of its own vessels and those it considers "non-hostile," while blocking those from countries it considers "enemies." It has established a selective toll with a physical corridor in the sea, through which it forces ships it is interested in to pass. Those that do not do so risk being attacked with drones, missiles, or speedboats.

Donald Trump has accustomed the world to paying attention to his social network. It was with a post on Truth Social, early Sunday morning, in which he announced that United States forces had managed to rescue alive the pilot who disappeared in Iran on Friday, after his plane was shot down. No official statement, no press conference, no images, no proof of the rescue. Only a message with the usual exaggerated rhetoric to glorify the US armed forces. "We got him back!", said the president, who added: "Over the past few hours, our military has carried out one of the most daring search and capture operations in United States history for one of our incredible members, who is a highly respected colonel, and I am delighted to let you know that he is now safe and sound!".

The future of the world is being decided these days in the petroleum-blue waters of Hormuz. The headline is blunt, but it didn't scare Captain Ibrahim. Business comes before Trump's war. And business is in crisis because of Trump's war. 

Thursday, ARA put on its front page: “The expectation of a quick end to the war is encouraging markets”. Indeed, on Wednesday the Ibex-35 had risen by 3.16% because the conviction had spread that the war would end soon. However, on Thursday itself the index lost part of the previous day’s gains. This is tantamount to saying that the stock markets – that is, financiers – do not have clear ideas about how the war will impact the economy. Since the first bomb fell, the Ibex-35, like the American Dow Jones, has only fallen by 5%. To give us an idea of what the stock market does when a real crisis begins, at the end of 2007, and in a few weeks, the Ibex-35 fell by 33%, and did not begin to recover until seven years later. In contrast to the bewilderment of financiers, engineers show a solid pessimism. The International Energy Agency has published a ten-point plan of measures for governments to adopt to save energy, and the European Union commissioner has sent a letter to governments suggesting, among other things, rationing gasoline, promoting teleworking, and even prohibiting the circulation of private vehicles on Sundays (a measure in force during the energy crisis of the 70s). The basis for this view is that the energy infrastructures in the Persian Gulf have been so damaged that, even if the war ended today, supply would not be able to return to normal for several months.In this context, it is interesting to compare the Spanish government's response to that of the Chinese. The former has reacted by lowering the VAT levied on fuels, which has gone from 21% to 10%. This has meant that, despite the price of gasoline rising by 15%, the consumer only perceives a 4% increase. On the other hand, the Chinese government raised prices by 13% on the 23rd. The former, implicitly optimistic, tries to gain time, while the latter – prudent – prepares its population for the worst, and prefers them to start saving fuel from the outset.