Sixty days. This was the deadline that the United States and Iran gave themselves to transform the memorandum of understanding signed in June into a final agreement. The deadline expires this Monday without this agreement having been reached. And during these two months, the understanding that was supposed to contain the war has been on the verge of causing it to explode again. In fact, in the last few hours Tehran has raised its tone again: a high-ranking commander of the Revolutionary Guard has warned that its defensive stance will become "offensive" and has threatened with "strategic surprises" against the enemy.

New grandiloquent promise from the President of the United States. Donald Trump has assured in the last few hours that he plans to declare the Strait of Hormuz as "United States territory" once the American army has fulfilled its mission to "defeat Iran". The leader assured this at a rally in New York, and quickly received a response from Tehran: "The Strait of Hormuz cannot be conquered with a tweet or with aircraft carriers, nor by issuing an order or with an electoral speech," wrote Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister, Kazem Gharibabadi, on X.

Iran tries to project stability as doubts grow about the health status of Mojtaba Khamenei, the new supreme leader of the country after the death of his father, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, in the first American and Israeli attacks against the country on February 28. Suspicions have resurfaced after Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian admitted that communication with the country's leader is currently "very difficult".The statements, made in an interview broadcast by Iranian state television, have further fueled speculation about the physical condition of Mojtaba Khamenei, 56, who has not appeared publicly since taking office. The new leader has so far only communicated through written messages and did not appear at his father's funeral ceremonies last July.“It is very difficult to communicate with him at the moment, but, in any case, his presence is a great source of strength for us to continue,” stated Pezeshkian, without offering further details on what exactly this difficulty of interaction means. The Iranian president, however, took the opportunity to reject versions describing Khamenei as a weakened figure and assured that the meetings they have held have been “productive” and marked by “great kindness and very solid logic.”According to information published in March by the American newspaper The New York Times, the new supreme leader was reportedly seriously injured in the American and Israeli attack that killed his father. At that time, several media outlets reported that Mojtaba Khamenei was in good mental condition, but had suffered significant burns to his face and lips. He also reportedly underwent an operation on one of his hands and required plastic facial surgery, while awaiting a prosthesis for a leg. Iranian sources have assured that he only suffered a minor injury, but the Iranian regime has not released any video or audio recording of the religious leader. This week, the Iranian newspaper Al-Mashhari has assured that the decision not to release recordings of the supreme leader is due to security reasons. According to this newspaper, an audio or video could reveal his location and give clues about his physical condition.Tension within the regime

The statements by the president of Iran come at a time of tension within Iranian power structures. The Iranian media outlet Tabnak has reported that Khamenei would have warned Pezeshkian that he would accept his resignation if the president presented it again. This episode revisits doubts about the relationship between the presidency and the most influential centers of power in the Islamic Republic. After months of tensions between the government and the military and security apparatuses of the Islamic Republic, in May, Pezeshkian had already considered resigning because he felt he could not fully exercise his constitutional responsibilities.Several Iranian media outlets reported that the president had sent a letter to the supreme leader's office denouncing that the government had been sidelined from the state's main decisions and that the power vacuum had allowed the harder factions of the Revolutionary Guard to progressively take control of strategic issues. Both the Tasnim agency, linked to the Revolutionary Guard, and the Deputy Director of Communication and Information of the Presidency Office, Seyed Mehdi Tabatabaei, denied this information and assured that Pezeshkian would continue to exercise his duties normally.The uncertainty about the country's leader's condition has also begun to spread to Iranian society. During the days of Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's funeral, several citizens consulted by Reuters expressed their concern about the prolonged public absence of the new supreme leader. Some warned that this situation could increase political uncertainty in the country, while others insisted that people needed to see that there was a leader running the country.All this comes at a time when Tehran is in full negotiation with Oman to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. The Iranian Foreign Ministry assures that the talks with Oman to establish new maritime traffic routes through the Strait of Hormuz are “about to conclude”. Since the resumption of attacks between the United States and Iran on June 17, maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz has been drastically reduced. This Wednesday only two ships crossed this route, according to maritime traffic monitoring data compiled by the company Kpler, compared to eight the previous day. Before the war that began on February 28, an average of 130 to 140 ships passed through it daily.

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Negotiations to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are advancing, although the final details remain unsettled. Iran and Oman have moved closer on a new maritime route to re-establish transit through this strategic passage, while Washington and Tehran maintain indirect contact to resolve the political obstacles that still block a definitive reopening.

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In Washington, the summer heat is unavoidable, but Donald Trump and the Iranian regime are once again repeating the loop of crossed statements from last spring. The only difference is that this back and forth is happening in a post-ceasefire scenario and where Tehran seems to have already gauged the US president. This Monday morning, the Iranian Foreign Minister, Esmaeil Baghaei, said that his country is not holding talks with the US, thus contradicting the announcement Trump had made on Sunday evening aboard Air Force One.

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After a brief pause in which it seemed that calm could begin to settle in the Middle East, hostilities have returned with force. The region continues to be immersed in an escalation that threatens to further broaden the conflict and drag new actors into a crisis already marked by high military tension.

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A terribly familiar war rhythm has returned to prevail in Iran: bombed highways, a sinking currency, threatening messages from President Trump on social media, and incendiary rhetoric from religious leaders of the Iranian regime. But when Behnam, an unemployed musician from Tehran, calls relatives or friends to see how they are, he never starts by talking about the war. "The first question we ask each other is: have you eaten?"

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The Houthis have once again opened a new front in the war between the United States and Iran. The Yemeni group has claimed a missile and drone attack against two Saudi oil tankers sailing in the Red Sea, in compliance with the threat issued days earlier to impose a maritime blockade against ships linked to Saudi Arabia crossing the Bab el-Mandeb strait. The attack has caused several oil tankers to alter their route, shipping companies to review their plans, and increased concern about a new disruption of world trade on one of the planet's most strategic maritime routes.

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Jordan has ceased to be a secondary theater of war. After last Friday's attack on a military position in the northeast of the country, in which several American soldiers died, Iran attacked Jordanian territory again this Tuesday. Tehran assured that it had reached the Rukban area, near the borders with Syria and Iraq, and that it had caused new casualties among the American troops deployed there, information that Washington has not confirmed. Beyond the victim count, the succession of attacks reveals a fundamental change: the Hashemite kingdom, for decades one of the most discreet allies of the United States in the Middle East, has moved to occupy a central place in the confrontation between Washington and Tehran.

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The fronts stemming from the Iran war are only multiplying for the US president, Donald Trump. Tuesday's meeting with his Lebanese counterpart, Joseph Aoun, was to focus on the next steps of the preliminary agreement for the withdrawal of Israeli troops in the south of the country. A conflict that Washington and Israel are trying to remove from the regional equation, even though the Iranian regime demanded an unconditional ceasefire to Lebanon in the memorandum signed in Versailles. But, even so, the Republican has had to answer not only questions about Hezbollah but also about the Houthis of Yemen.

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The Houthi movement in Yemen announced on Monday a naval blockade against Saudi Arabia, expanding the war in the Middle East and adding instability to global hydrocarbon trade. The Iran-linked armed group stated in a communiqué that it declares "a maritime embargo against the criminal Saudi enemy, based on the eye-for-an-eye equation, with immediate effect," in response to what it described as an "unjust and oppressive siege" imposed by Riyadh on Houthi-controlled areas of Yemen.

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The United States has bombed Iran for the eighth consecutive night this Sunday, and the Persian country has now set Jordan in its sights. The Jordanian army has reported intercepting three Iranian missiles, while another has fallen in a remote area in the south of the country. The attack has not caused "human casualties or material damage", according to military sources, but it has led the Jordanian Ministry of Foreign Affairs to summon the chargé d'affaires of the Iranian embassy in Amman to protest against "the brutal and unjustified Iranian attacks" against its territory, which have intensified in recent days. The Persian country has also bombed Kuwait again this Sunday for the second consecutive day. Its target has been a desalination and power plant.

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Iranians received an unexpected message this Saturday from the authorities: save electricity and gas at home. The recommendation may seem minor, but it is profoundly symbolic in a country that has the world's second-largest gas reserves and fourth-largest oil reserves. The American military offensive against Iran enters its second week, and the military escalation does not seem to be stopping. Even less so after two American soldiers were killed this Saturday in an Iranian attack with drones and ballistic missiles against a United States base in Jordan, according to a statement from the US Army's Central Command. A third soldier is missing and four others were injured.

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The escalation between the United States and Iran enters a new phase. Attacks continue on Iranian territory while Tehran maintains its response against targets linked to Washington in various Gulf countries. The most significant change in this new stage is not occurring in the Strait of Hormuz, but in the region's capitals, where governments that for years tried to maintain a prudent distance from the rivalry between Washington and Tehran now face a difficult choice.

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The bombings between the United States and Iran continued this Monday for the fifth consecutive day, in an escalation that could lead to a regional confrontation. Washington has launched a new wave of attacks against Iranian military infrastructure, while Tehran hardens its rhetoric and warns Gulf countries that providing logistical support to American forces will be considered an act of war.

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The sirens have sounded again this Sunday in several Gulf countries as the United States and Iran have taken a new step in an escalation that threatens to squander the fragile memorandum of understanding signed just a few weeks ago between Washington and Tehran. After a third wave of American bombings against more than 140 Iranian military targets in recent hours, Tehran has responded with a coordinated offensive against American military installations in the Gulf. It has attacked with missiles and drones in Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, and Jordan, and has announced the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, the artery through which around 20% of the oil and liquefied natural gas traded in the world passes.

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The dam of cross-attacks between the United States and Iran this week has left the ceasefire signed on June 15 not dead, but with assisted breathing. At the center of the resumption of hostilities is, once again, the strategic Strait of Hormuz, the key passage for gas and oil and other strategic goods that Iran has brought under its control. A weapon of mass economic destruction that has served it, so far, to survive an attack that surpassed it militarily.

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While the United States and Iran exchange attacks and threats, Qatari mediators are keeping talks open in Tehran. Barely 48 hours after Donald Trump declared the memorandum of understanding "dead" and ordered new air strikes against Iranian infrastructureIranian infrastructure, the diplomatic channel remains open. In a post on Truth Social, the President of the United States has reflected the instability of the truce: "The Islamic Republic of Iran has asked us to continue the talks. We have agreed, but the United States has clearly told them that the ceasefire is OVER!".

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For the second consecutive day, missiles have replaced diplomacy in the Middle East. Just two weeks after signing the memorandum of understanding that allowed a pause in fighting and opened the door to new negotiations between the United States and Iran, the attacks have intensified again. During Wednesday night and Thursday morning, Washington has once again bombed Iranian territory. The US military has stated that since Wednesday dawn it has struck nearly 170 military targets in the country, including air defense systems, coastal surveillance facilities, and missile and drone depots. According to the Iranian Ministry of Health, US attacks in the last two days have left at least 14 dead and 78 injured in five provinces of the country.

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After a few days of calm and records, turbulence returns to the stock markets. The announcement by the US President, Donald Trump, that the ceasefire with Iran is over has caused an avalanche of sales and declines in all European stock exchanges.

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