The U.S. Department of Justice has opened an investigation into a series of operations related to the oil market carried out at particularly opportune moments: just before major announcements by U.S. President Donald Trump and senior Iranian officials in the context of the war in the Middle East. According to ABC News, at least four operations are being investigated in which traders made over $2.6 billion (about 2.2 billion euros) betting that oil prices would fall just before news emerged that caused them to do so.

While the Strait of Hormuz remains closed to maritime traffic and Iran and the United States continue to negotiate under the threat of resuming armed attacks, the highest officials of Iranian and Chinese diplomacy have met in Beijing. The Iranian Minister of Foreign Affairs, Abbas Araghchi, traveled to Beijing to meet, this Wednesday, with his counterpart, Wang Yi. It was the first personal meeting since the conflict began. Wang Yi acknowledged the close economic and political ties with Iran and insisted on calling the war "illegitimate". The Chinese diplomat once again called for a comprehensive ceasefire and the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. He also reiterated China's opposition to sanctions.Wang positioned himself in favor of a solution involving the region's actors. He assured that the Gulf and Middle Eastern countries "should take the reins of their future" and that China supports "the establishment of a regional peace and security framework led by the countries of the region". Since the beginning of the conflict, the Chinese position has been to defend the need to achieve a ceasefire and reopen the Strait of Hormuz to restore world trade. The closure of this route directly affects Chinese interests. China used to buy 80% of Iranian oil, and 45% of the gas and oil imported by the Asian giant circulates through this route.The meeting with the Iranian Foreign Minister comes a week before President Trump's visit to Beijing. A trip scheduled for May 14 and 15, which China has not yet officially confirmed.The war has become the focus of talks that were initially intended to restore trade relations. Donald Trump has requested Xi Jinping's cooperation to reach an agreement with Iran. At the beginning of the week, it was the U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, Scott Bessent, who urged China to influence Iran to reopen Hormuz. And Marco Rubio also joined the pressure in statements to the press from Washington. A whole battery of pressures reminiscent of those deployed by the European Union for China to influence Putin to end the invasion of Ukraine, without success.Beijing's ambiguity

So far, China has limited itself to advocating for diplomatic solutions to conflicts, without getting involved. In the case of Iran, Chinese economic interests are clearer, but it remains to be seen whether China will do anything more than limit itself to statements, as in the case of Ukraine. Unlike the United States, accustomed to using military force, China bases its influence on trade. China has no allies, it has commercial partners. It limits itself to defending its interests under the axiom of not interfering in the internal affairs of its partners. The Asian giant has woven a network of commercial interests and investments to guarantee access to ports and trade routes. Routes and agreements that serve to supply itself with raw materials and to deliver its exports. For example, in these times of energy crisis, China uses its reserves to supply fuel to Southeast Asian countries, highly dependent on the Persian Gulf, and thus strengthen alliances.Officially, it is difficult for China to do anything more than make statements in defense of truces and negotiations. But it is very possible that it is supplying arms to Iran, as the United States has denounced. In the case of Russia, there is no doubt that its economic support helps Putin's regime to survive the sanctions, and there are suspicions that it exports dual-use material, civilian, but which can be used for military purposes.In the process of militarization

But in addition to the lack of will, Beijing also lacks the military capacity to confront the United States. The Chinese army has undergone a radical modernization, but it has not yet reached the level of the North American one. China currently only has 3 aircraft carriers compared to the United States' 11, and only has one military base outside its territory. But perhaps the most important thing is that the Chinese army has no experience; it has not participated in real war missions.Trump's erratic position weakens his figure and also that of the United States as a reliable ally on the international stage. This conjuncture facilitates Xi Jinping positioning himself as a stable leader and defender of international order, but it remains to be seen if China will truly benefit from the situation.In a short time, it has seen how important allies, Venezuela or Iran, for example, have been attacked and destabilized by the United States. And surely the next on the list will be Cuba. China's role as a leader of the Global South could deteriorate if it is perceived that being an ally of the Asian giant does not translate into protection against possible aggressions.

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The spokesman for the Iranian Foreign Ministry, Esmaeil Baghaei, confirmed in an interview with the state agency ISNA that Tehran is reviewing a new peace proposal from the United States. "After concluding the evaluations, Iran will convey its perspective to the Pakistani side," Baghaei stated. In the preceding hours, a text had been circulating, allegedly containing the US proposal, published by the North American outlet "Axios". Iran has dismissed this version of the text, stating it is more of a "wish list" from Washington than a plan with prospects of success. Once again, the picture is blurred by contradictory signals from both sides.

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The premise in the White House right now is one: the ceasefire continues despite the cross-border attacks on Monday between American and Iranian forces, and despite the fact that this Tuesday the United Arab Emirates (UAE) intercepted new Iranian missiles. The assertion has been triple by the American executive: in the morning, the head of the Pentagon, Pete Hegseth, affirmed it; at noon, President Donald Trump; and in the afternoon, Secretary of State Marco Rubio. The question is no longer how long the fragile truce will last, which has managed to survive for a month, but what will make it fall. Or rather: until when will it make sense to continue talking about a humanitarian pause if attacks continue to occur.

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The German Chancellor, Friedrich Merz, does not believe that German-American relations are in crisis, following the announcement by the President of the United States, Donald Trump, that he will withdraw 5,000 soldiers from Germany. Washington made this decision on Friday amid a public dispute between Trump and the chancellor over the United States and Israel's war against Iran. “Perhaps it is being exaggerated a bit, but [the withdrawal of soldiers] is nothing new”, Merz stated on Sunday night in an interview with the public broadcaster ARD, one year after his arrival at the chancellery and the content of which was anticipated by the German press.

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This is a compass article. Like the magnetized needle instrument, the aim of these words is to try to show us where we are. Or, more precisely, where the Iran war is, a strident earthquake that has strained international politics and the economy.

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The war in the Middle East and the new world disorder driven from the White House by Donald Trump has losers. The biggest losers are the populations suffering bombardments and embargoes and blockades. But there are also those who win. And by a lot. Some are those who play on event prediction platforms, as is the case with Polymarket. And also those who bet on markets based on the unpredictable statements of the US President, Donald Trump. More than one has fattened their portfolio with these plays with a certain aroma of insider information.

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The international political climate has once again become tense in recent hours after the United States rejected the peace proposal presented by Iran. The decision has provoked an immediate reaction from Tehran and has increased fears that the ceasefire may collapse. From the Iranian military leadership, the tone has been forceful. A senior Iranian military official, Brigadier General Mohammad Jafar Asadi, has warned the Iranian agency Fars that it is “probable” that the conflict with the United States and Israel will resume. Asadi assured that Iran is “fully prepared for any new adventure or stupidity by the Americans” and added that “surprise measures are prepared for the enemy”.

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Iran has sent a new peace negotiation proposal to the United States through Pakistan, the official IRNA agency reported this Friday, which offered no details on the content of the proposal. "The Islamic Republic of Iran delivered the text of its latest negotiation proposal to Pakistan, intermediary in negotiations with the United States, on the afternoon of Thursday, April 30," the state media indicated.

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The relations between Berlin and Washington are not going through their best moment, after the exchange of mutual criticism between President Donald Trump and Chancellor Friedrich Merz. Trump threatened on Wednesday to withdraw American troops from Germany, after Merz's repeated criticism of the United States and Israel's war against Iran and its exit strategy from this conflict. “The United States is studying and analyzing the possible reduction of troops in Germany and a decision will be made in a short period,” Trump said on his official Truth Social account.

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Two months after the start of the war, Iran has welcomed a "new chapter" in the Persian Gulf. Iran's supreme leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, has broken his usual silence and, through a statement, has predicted a "brilliant" future for the region after the "shameful defeat" of the United States. "A new chapter is being written for the Persian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz," he assures in the message, broadcast by state media. "By the power and might of God, the brilliant future of the Persian Gulf region will be a future without the United States and in the service of the progress, well-being, and prosperity of its nations," he adds.

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Tehran has taken a step in the attempt to resume negotiations with the United States. Last Tuesday, Donald Trump said he unilaterally extended the truce to Iran, awaiting its leaders to present a "unified peace proposal," using a supposed division in the regime as a pretext. This Monday, Tehran has sent a new proposal to Washington in which, according to American media such as Associated Press and Axios, it commits to ending its blockade in the Strait of Hormuz if the United States also lifts the counter-blockade to Iranian ports and applies a long-term or permanent truce. In the third phase, negotiations would take place on Iran's nuclear program. According to the Lebanese channel, Tehran "refuses to discuss this issue until an agreement is reached on the first two phases." If the US accepts this proposal, Iran will agree to resume negotiations with Washington's envoys.Even so, the fact of leaving the discussions on the Islamic Republic's nuclear program until the end suggests that it could be rejected by Washington, which has stated since the beginning of the war that the main objective is to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon.Hopes for a new round of negotiations between the United States and Iran in Pakistan revived on Friday, but quickly faded again when the Iranian delegation left Islamabad before Donald Trump's envoys arrived. Iran's Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, left the Pakistani capital for Oman, and this Monday continued his tour to Russia.

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Finally, the second round of talks between the United States and Iran seems to have been unlocked. Both Washington and Tehran announced this Friday that they are sending delegations to Islamabad. However, after a week of announcements and subsequent denials, and amid an escalation of assaults and interceptions of ships in Hormuz, skepticism still predominates about the fruits that dialogue between the two parties may yield. The few details about when and how this second round of negotiations may occur add uncertainty to the situation.

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The Pentagon is reportedly considering suspending Spain from NATO, among other proposals to punish countries that have not supported American operations in the war with Iran. This is indicated by an email that has circulated among senior officials of the War Department —formerly the Department of Defense— of the United States, as a funcionario has assured the Reuters agency on condition of anonymity.

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After suspending Vice President JD Vance's trip to Islamabad, Donald Trump has announced that he is extending the ceasefire with Iran at the request of Pakistani Marshal Asim Munir and Pakistan's Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif. Once again, Pakistan comes to the rescue of the Republican. The US president assures in a message on Truth Social that he will maintain the truce until Iranian leaders "can present a unified [agreement] proposal," as "Iran's government is severely fractured." Even so, Trump assures that he will maintain the naval blockade in the Strait of Hormuz. The ayatollahs have been demanding that the Americans lift the military cordon as a condition for being able to sit down to negotiate again.

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Jean-Pierre Filiu is one of the foremost experts on the Arab world in Europe. A former French diplomat, Arabist and historian, and professor at Sciences Po, he visited Barcelona at the invitation of the European Institute of the Mediterranean (IEMed). He was one of the few European analysts to enter Gaza since October 7, 2023, and recounts his experience in A Historian in Gaza, which the publishing house La Cebra has just released in Spanish.

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If there are no last-minute changes, the negotiators of the United States and Iran will meet again in Islamabad to resume peace talks, before the ceasefire expires on Tuesday night to Wednesday. The Strait of Hormuz remains blocked, but the ten-day truce has given some breathing room to all parties, and also to the markets. Despite the rhetoric and continued threats from Donald Trump and his team to further destroy Iran, the fact is that there is some consensus among analysts that it is in the best interest of all parties, including the United States, to stop a conflict that is causing an economic crisis of global proportions.

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Donald Trump reiterated this midday, on his Truth Social network, threats to Iran's energy infrastructure, after yesterday the Revolutionary Guard attacked "a French ship and a British cargo ship" and again closed the Strait of Hormuz. "A total violation of our ceasefire agreement!", he proclaimed, after announcing that he is sending representatives to Pakistan again to resume negotiations for the peace agreement.

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The United States and Iran are squeezing the last days of the ceasefire, which expires on Tuesday night to Wednesday, in a race against time negotiation. Neither wants to return to an open war that would have unpredictable consequences, but no significant approximation of positions is seen either. The truce is affected by the situation in the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed. Iran announced on Friday that it would allow commercial vessels to pass through a route under its control, but, after Washington said it maintained its blockade on the passage of Iranian vessels, the Revolutionary Guard said the strait "returned to the previous situation," and attacked several vessels. Trump considered it a violation of the ceasefire, and this Sunday he announced that his representatives will arrive in Islamabad on Monday night. He also stated that the US military had captured an Iranian ship attempting to cross the naval blockade. Vice President J.D. Vance will once again lead the US delegation, along with envoy Steve Witkoff and President's son-in-law Jared Kushner. Iranian authorities, on the other hand, have not confirmed the second round of talks and have accused Washington of "excessive demands, unrealistic expectations, constant changes of stance, repeated contradictions" and consider the US naval blockade a violation of the ceasefire.

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Although Iran announced this Friday the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in response to the 10-day truce agreed in Lebanon, this Saturday it has backtracked and announced that it will re-impose "strict control" over the passage. This plot twist comes after the United States maintained the blockade against Iranian ports yesterday. "Control of the Strait of Hormuz has returned to its previous state and this strategic waterway is under strict management and control by the Armed Forces," announced the spokesman for the Jatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, Lieutenant Colonel Ebrahim Zolfagari, in a statement collected by the Tasnim agency.

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