All polls agree that the PSC will win the next Catalan elections, but the one presented this Friday by the Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió (CEO) is particularly encouraging for the socialists, who would broadly surpass their opponents with a range of between 40 and 47 deputies, growing significantly from the 33 they obtained in 2021. The CEO's poll is also a counter-current poll because it places ERC (31-37) in second position, ahead of Junts (28-34), which would place Pere Aragonès in the fight with Carles Puigdemont to become the candidate for investiture from the pro-independence flank. The director of the CEO, Jordi Muñoz, has spoken of a "technical tie" between the two parties.

If the elections were repeated in October, Salvador Illa's PSC would once again achieve victory with a result of between 39 and 45 deputies, a range that could allow them to improve on the 42 seats they obtained on May 12th. This is what the Barometer of the Centre for Opinion Studies, made public this Thursday, shows, the first since the May 12th elections were held and the investiture negotiations began. According to the survey, Junts would remain in second place with a range of between 31 and 36 seats (they currently have 35) and Esquerra in third, with a range of between 19 and 24 seats (they currently have 20). With this data, the independence movement of Junts, ERC, and the CUP would not sum the absolute majority of 68 deputies even if they achieved the best result assigned to them by the CEO – with the ranges there is a difference of between 1 and 6 seats. They would remain at 66 seats in the best-case scenario, and a possible pro-independence majority would have to go through Aliança Catalana, which could win between 1 and 4 seats and improve on the two they currently have. However, Junts, ERC, and the CUP have already closed the door to negotiating with the far-right pro-independence ultras and, in fact, have signed with the PSC and the commons a commitment to create a sanitary cordon for them in Parliament along with Vox and not to seek or accept their votes. On the other hand, the viability of the PSC, Esquerra, and commons coalition to invest Illa would depend on how well these three parties performed, with a vote frontier between them, and they would regain a majority if they registered a result in the middle or upper range of their forecast.The rest of the parties would remain in the same order as they came out of the ballot boxes on May 12. The PP, the fourth force with 15 deputies, could lose two or improve its result to 18 seats. Vox is the only party that, according to the survey, would have nothing to gain in case of an electoral repeat, because the maximum it could get is between 7 and 11 seats, which are what it already has now. In the best-case scenario for both parties, the sum of PSC and PP is 63 seats. Insufficient, therefore, to form a government without looking for a third partner. It could be the commons, but so far they have refused to repeat the sum that made Jaume Collboni mayor in Barcelona. Regarding the two smaller left-wing groups in the chamber, the CUP could obtain between 1 and 6 deputies (it currently has 4) and the commons, between 5 and 8 (they currently have 6). Jéssica Albiach's party is the one that could suffer the most vote transfer to the PSC in the event of an electoral repeat, up to 10%. The one that best retains its voters is Junts (81% would pick up Carles Puigdemont's ballot again), followed by the PSC, which would again seduce almost 8 out of 10 of its sympathizers on May 12th. For its part, Esquerra has a significant vote leakage towards abstention (30%), although it resists and could still improve results because it incorporates voters who had not voted or had voted blank in the previous elections. The fieldwork for the survey was carried out between June 10th, the day the Parliament was constituted, and July 8th, by which time the scandal of the posters about the Maragalls that implicates ERC and that the ARA uncovered had already been made public the scandal of the posters about the Maragalls that implicates ERC and that the ARA uncovered. In a press conference, the director of the CEO, Jordi Muñoz, explained that the survey already includes part of the possible impact of this information, which was published on July 1st.Who will be the president?

The CEO also asked Catalans who they believe has "more possibilities" of being the next president of the Generalitat: 65% of those surveyed think it is Illa who has the best chance, while 14% believe it is Carles Puigdemont, waiting to know how his return to Catalonia turns out. Furthermore, Illa is the only political leader who passes: he has a 5.2 out of 10, ahead of the acting president, Pere Aragonès (4.8), Laia Estrada and Jéssica Albiach (4.6), Carles Puigdemont (3.9), Sílvia Orriols (3.6), Alejandro Fernández (3.1) and Ignacio Garriga (1.9).Supporters of the PSC, Esquerra, and the commons largely believe that it is a pact between these three parties that should lead Illa to preside over the Generalitat, ahead of other options. The most enthusiastic are the commons: 46% support this sum, a percentage that is 28% in the case of the socialists and 26% in that of the republicans. Regarding Junts, only 27% of their voters believe that Puigdemont has a chance of being invested.The evolution of independentism

According to the Barometer, support for independence is currently at historic lows: only 40% of those surveyed defend independence, the lowest figure in the historical series, which began in 2015 and had never dropped below 41%. On the other hand, there has never been such a high percentage of non-independists: 53% declare themselves to be, a percentage that fits into the trends already detected by previous barometers. Also regarding the relationship with Spain, for the first time since 2015, supporters of Catalonia being an autonomous community outnumber independists: 34% state they are satisfied with the current territorial model, ahead of the 31% who would want it to be an independent state; behind them are supporters of federalism (22%, one point less than in the last Barometer) and of a regional model (7%, also two points less).Furthermore, the drought is no longer the primary concern for Catalans, as it was in March of this year: the top spot is now occupied by "dissatisfaction with politics," followed by access to housing, Catalonia-Spain relations, and immigration. Only 2% believe that water scarcity and climate change are Catalonia's main problem.

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Most Catalans overestimate the presence of immigrants in the region, according to the latest survey by the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO). In fact, the assessment, published this Thursday, confirms that the idea is spreading that the percentage of the population born abroad is practically equal to that of the native population. In response to the question, "Out of every 100 residents, how many would you say were born outside of Spain?", 40% of Catalans believe that half or more of their neighbors are foreign-born, and 14% believe that between 30% and 40% are. However, the average perception of those surveyed—that 36% of the population is immigrant—falls far short of the actual figure: those born outside of Spain make up 25% of the total population, according to data from Idescat published on January 1, 2025.

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Given the rail chaos that followed the fatal accident in Gelida, it's no surprise that Cercanías (commuter rail) is one of the most criticized services by the public. The Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) illustrates this discontent with data, adding that the survey was conducted before the disruptions of recent weeks. Cercanías is the service rated worst by Catalans (4.2), far below the satisfaction level of Ferrocarrils de la Generalitat (7.6), which generates the highest user satisfaction. Young people between 16 and 34 years old give the Cercanías service the lowest ratings, below 4. Although published this Thursday, the data was collected between October 10 and December 8 of last year, that is, a month before the current crisis. In recent weeks, the lack of coordination between the Catalan government, the Spanish state, and the two companies that operate the service, Renfe and Adif, has been one of the most criticized issues. Two officials from Renfe and Adif have been dismissed: the Secretary of State for Transport and Sustainable Mobility, José Antonio Santano, has settled indefinitely in Catalonia And the Catalan government demanded that the central government assume the costs arising from the service's malfunction. All of this has demonstrated that, despite being the service's owner, the Catalan government does not control it.

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The latest CEO barometer is not just a blurry snapshot of the moment; it's a seismograph. And the seismic shift is clear: the far right—both pro-independence and pro-Spanish—is taking center stage in Catalan political debate. The simultaneous rise of Aliança Catalana and Vox is neither an accident nor a passing phenomenon: it's the consequence of a deep-seated discontent that traditional parties have thus far failed to manage.

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This week Emmanuel Macron has announced a volunteer program in France to recruit young people in the army and the The group of states of the European Union are heading to reinstate mandatory military service. For now, Spain is an exception—the Spanish government has always maintained that it is not on the table—but the perception that a war in Europe is possible has been spreading among the population. Or at least that is the message that governments of different political stripes are conveying to their respective public opinions, at a time when—it must be said—they also need a pretext with public support to increase military spending, as demanded by NATO and Donald Trump.

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One of the conclusions of the latest barometer from the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO), published this Monday, is that voters for Aliança Catalana and Vox "are becoming increasingly similar," states the organization's director, Joan Rodríguez Teruel. In fact, one of the trends highlighted by this latest survey is that voters for Ignacio Garriga's party are increasingly drawn to Silvia Orriols's party. The convergence between the two parties has long been evident in the Catalan Parliament, where both avoid vetoing each other's initiatives, for example, those of a xenophobic nature. Now, the CEO's figures confirm this trend.

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The far right continues its rise in Catalonia: Aliança Catalana would climb to 19-20 seats and tie with Junts (19-20) for third place, according to the latest barometer from the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO). However, Junts remains ahead in vote share (13-15%) compared to Aliança (11-14%). The poll also indicates that the PSC remains in first place, but is stagnating (38-40); in fact, it would lose two seats compared to the last barometer published in July. ERC, for its part, would gain ground and become the second largest party (22-23), ahead of Junts. The upward trend of the far right would also be reflected in Vox (13-14) making overtaking in the PP (12-13). Comuns would remain at 6 seats, as would the CUP, with 3-4. The barometer was compiled between October 13 and November 11. It was during this period that Junts made the decision to break with the Spanish government and enter the opposition.

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For the first time in history, the Generalitat's Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) asked respondents which party their parents belonged to: whether their parents had any specific affiliations or identities, and whether they currently maintain them. So, is being a Socialist or a Convergent member something inherited? The conclusions of the latest CEO barometer from July are mixed: while it's true that some political parties manage to maintain this identity from generation to generation, others lose it and move to other parties or simply cease to identify with any political organization. "We were interested in studying the generational transmission of parties to see if there is an inheritance from parents to children, especially because in recent years in Catalonia, new parties have emerged and others have also disappeared; there has been an electoral shift between parties, and new generations have also joined the electorate," explains Joan Rodríguez Teruel.

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This week, the CEO Barometer has left several headlines on electoral trends in Catalonia: a rise of the Catalan Alliance, which was already coming from the previous wave; a stagnation of the PSC after years of rise, and above all the growth that Vox can opt for.

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Today that The CEO survey shows a rise for Vox and the Catalan Alliance again., it is an appropriate day to remember that neither of these two parties has the solution to the problems of Catalan society, because they live off hatred of immigrants (especially Muslims) and, in the case of Vox, also of the Catalan nation.

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If the forecasts of the latest CEO Barometer were to be fulfilled On the high side of the fork, and if Vox were to obtain 14 deputies in the Parliament of Catalonia, and Aliança Catalana 11, their total (the extreme right-wing groups add up, even if one calls itself Spanish and the other declares itself pro-independence) would be 25 deputies, that is, 18.5% of representation. Almost 20% of ultra-nationalist deputies is a percentage that some will find scarce compared to the parliaments of other countries (the extreme right is the third force in Spain and Germany, the second in France, and directly governs in Italy), but in any case it is a worrying percentage.

]]> The far right continues to grow in Catalonia, both the pro-Spanish and pro-independence sides. On the one hand, the Catalan Alliance is expected to increase its support, according to the latest poll by the Generalitat's Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) from this second quarter, rising to between 10 and 11 seats compared to the two it currently holds in the Parliament. On the other hand, Vox is also expected to have more electoral support in Catalonia, to the point that it could overtake the PP. In any case, the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) would still win the Parliament elections, followed by Junts and Esquerra.

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What do Catalans think about the construction of 50,000 public housing units and the rent cap? How many of them want to buy a home? This article explores Catalan housing preferences in depth.

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Only one in four Catalans considers the volume and distribution of current taxes to be fair. Among those aged 16 to 24, 70% consider them unfair, while only 14% support them. In contrast, women over 64 are the most vocal supporters, with 30% in favor and 44% critical.

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Despite the secularization process experienced in Western democracies, the international far-right and conservative movement has once again brought the Catholic faith to the forefront as a relevant factor in the political battle. And it's not just the more tolerant practicing movements that are gaining influence, but rather they are also taking on many ultra-Catholic sectors that had been relegated until now. Just this week, the Pope ordered the elimination of a branch of the Church, Sodalitium of Christian Life, with ties to the Donald Trump administration, through US Vice President JD Vance. Now, what are the figures in Catalonia and in Spain? What are the voting patterns for Catholics and ultra-Catholics in Catalonia?

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The Center for Opinion Studies published its latest poll yesterday. Almost everyone expects to repeat last year's results, with two exceptions:

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The CEO survey released this Thursday paints a political picture in Catalonia with only one substantial change compared to last year's election results: the significant growth of the Catalan Alliance, which is expected to rise from 2 to 8-10 seats, at the expense of Junts, which is expected to fall from its current 35 to 27-29. The emergence of the far-right pro-independence movement, following the rise of the pro-Spanish Vox party in the previous elections, currently represents the main challenge to the traditional democratic party system, which is receding in Europe and even around the world in favor of populist movements.

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The PSC maintains its lead and would win the elections again (41-43 seats), according to the latest Barometer from the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO), which comes six months after Salvador Illa took office. However, the party that would see the sharpest gain is Aliança Catalana: Sílvia Orriols's far-right party would multiply its results by five, going from 2 seats to between 8 and 10. This increase would be detrimental to Junts, which would suffer a decline from 25 seats. ERC, after the setback of the 12-M elections and the internal crisis within the party, would recover slightly and reach between 21 and 23 seats. The Republicans now have 20 seats in the Parliament.

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The distribution of unaccompanied minors in the Canary Islands has reopened the debate on immigration, which has been on the front page for months. The far right has managed to make the issue a key issue, and some surveys have reflected increased public concern, such as the September survey by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS). when it became the first problem for the Spanish –in February it had already dropped to sixth place–. In Catalonia, the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) finds that the majority of Catalans view immigration positively. In fact, the results of the latest longitudinal survey, published this Friday, reflect that opinions on immigration have not changed in the last year, despite the intensification of the political debate. The average score remains similar both in terms of the positive impact of immigrants on the economy (6.4) and on culture (5.8) and coexistence (5.8).

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