Which electorate fails to seduce Salvador Illa?
After his partners, the president has good ratings among the electorate of Junts and the PP, while those of Vox and especially the Catalan Alliance reject him.
BarcelonaIt's been over a year since Salvador Illa was elected president of the Generalitat with 42 seats, after the PSC's struggle during the decade of the Partido Popular (Process). However, at this time, opinion polls indicate that, in the best-case scenario, the current head of the Catalan executive remains, in terms of electoral support, as he was in the last elections and, according to some polls, is even losing support. In other words, Salvador Illa is unable to expand the perimeter he obtained in the elections of May 12, 2024.
The latest barometer from the Center for Opinion Studies of the Generalitat indicates that the PSC is stagnating, while in the last poll released on elections to the Parliament, that of The Vanguard, the Socialists drop to 36 seats. Which electorate is resisting Salvador Illa? And which voters does he have the best chance of attracting to consolidate his presidency? To analyze this, beyond looking at the possible transfers of votes to the Parliament, other indicators provided by the CEO himself are relevant: Salvador Illa has a good rating as a leader among the voters of his partners, Esquerra and Comuns, as well as among a portion of the Junts and PP electorate; while he has little support among the CUP and generates rejection among the Aliança Catalana and Vox electorate.
The approval rating
A positive indicator for Salvador Illa is the opinion his government deserves among the population: despite not generating widespread enthusiasm, it does not generate widespread rejection either. Despite the average rating of his management being 4.9 (higher than that of the Spanish government), when those surveyed are asked whether or not they approve of the executive, 66% say they do, more than in recent years. Also, 63% of those surveyed approve of him as a leader, and he is the Catalan political leader who generates the least disapproval (33%).
If this is analyzed by party sympathy, it can be seen that those who give the government the highest rating are those of the PSC (6.2), Esquerra (5.7), and Comuns (5.6), while the next highest are those of Junts (4.9). Vox (3.1) and Aliança Catalana (3.5) give the lowest rating to Isla's executive's "management assessment," while the PP (4.6) and CUP (4.5) give it a similar rating. When asked about approval, it exceeds the threshold for all parties except far-right supporters. Also, among the general population, more respondents believe the political situation is better than a year ago, while the number of respondents who believe it is the same or worse has decreased.
The other piece of data that points to where Salvador Illa has room for growth (and where he doesn't) is the response to the CEO question asking respondents what their second voting choice is. The Socialists appear as the second choice for voters of Esquerra (29%), Comuns (36%), and also for those who opted for other extra-parliamentary options (33%). They are the third choice for PP voters (22%) and, to a lesser extent, appear as the fourth choice for Junts voters, neck and neck with Aliança and the CUP. Where they have the least chance of winning over Salvador Illa, according to this question, is among voters of Sílvia Orriols's party.
The transfer of vote
Be that as it may, the positive indicators of Salvador Illa's leadership are not currently translating into a direct transfer of votes, according to the CEO, beyond ERC or Comuns. Or, at least, the polls don't detect him gaining voters from his right.
According to Barometer data from July, the president has 82% of those who declare they voted for him in the last elections to the Parliament, and scrapes the Comuns (6%) and Esquerra (8%), with whom he has more ties. This electoral behavior is similar to that of the Spanish left in the competition between PSOE, Sumar, and Podemos.
However, for the moment there is no transfer of votes with other electorates, neither from an ideological nor a national perspective. Polls show minimal voter appeal for Junts and the PP (3%), and even less for Vox and Aliança (0%), and only 1% for the CUP. What does this mean? Demoscopically, Salvador Illa only grows potentially at the expense of his partners, which could jeopardize future arithmetic.
Arithmetic
Polls show a difficult situation for governability in Catalonia. Right now, the PSC (42), Esquerra (20), and the Comuns (6) have a fair majority of 68 deputies; therefore, Isla is not interested in overly reducing the electoral prospects of his partners. If the left were to fall too far and the PSC were not to maintain its current seats or were to grow but not enough, the possibility of the current majority would be unviable. This is, in fact, the scenario painted by the latest poll. The Vanguard, in which the three left-wing parties were left with 61 seats.
In this context, then, Salvador Illa's other option is to try to win over supporters in the political center, especially Junts, among whose electorate he has better results than among PP voters. This is a strategy he already tried to implement during the election campaign, with his campaign with CiU founder Miquel Roca or by recruiting councilors such as Miquel Sàmper and Ramon Espadaler. However, for the moment, it hasn't translated into a transfer of voters.