What is Junts i Esquerra's tolerance threshold for Pedro Sánchez?
BarcelonaJust after Wednesday's control session in the Congress of Deputies, in which Spanish President Pedro Sánchez stood alone against the attacks from the right, the leader of Esquerra (Republic of Catalonia), Gabriel Rufián, gave an interview that helps to understand the situation of not only the allies to the left of the PSOE but also Junts and the PNV. Standing and responding to The matí of Catalunya RàdioIn less than five minutes, he defended continuing the legislature to squeeze the PSOE to the maximum extent possible – "It's the right path and it must continue to be that way," he said – while acknowledging that his "body" was asking him to ditch Pedro Sánchez. He also said that the PP and Vox alternative to the Socialists was "very sketchy," but that "no one can make us choose between cheap or premium corrupt officials." Responses that show that the Spanish government's partners are literally trapped in the whole Cerdán affair.
Their dilemma is whether to endure a government tainted by alleged corruption – the plot involving the Cerdán, Ábalos, and Koldo trio affects the Ministry of Transport – or pave the way for a right-wing and far-right government that runs counter to their ideological interests and also the national interests of their electorate. It also comes at the worst possible time for the separatists: the Constitutional Court must take a position on the amnesty, which is key to the return of Carles Puigdemont and for Oriol Junqueras and Jordi Turull to be candidates.
The lack of an alternative is the only advantage Pedro Sánchez has had from the beginning, even in this crisis. The numbers in Congress add up—he himself boasted in his appearance on Monday—and both Junts and Esquerra acknowledge this privately. Republican sources summarize, "We won't be the first" to bring down Sánchez. In fact, since 2018, when he came to power, this has always been his main excuse, because no partner on his left wants to have the stigma of having actively facilitated a far-right government's rise to power.
The only thing that changes among the parliamentary allies is the degree of gestures they use when distancing themselves from Sánchez. It varies depending on where the party stands on the ideological axis. Podemos is the one putting the most pressure on, now directly speaking of the PSOE as a "corrupt" party, while the lowest profile, paradoxically, has been adopted by Junts, which gives it leeway, through Jordi Turull and Míriam Nogueras, who this week did want to have their photo taken with Pedro Sánchez. Junts sources even believe that, despite what the trio of Cerdán, Koldo, and Ábalos did, the Civil Guard is using this case politically, as it did in its day with the independence movement. For the moment, Junts is preserving its totem: since the crisis broke out, the former president Carles Puigdemont hasn't said a peep.
The threshold
If the stain of alleged corruption doesn't spread further, it seems Sánchez could be holding on in agony. Without a budget—in fact, that was already a given before the crisis—and without a legislative agenda due to the mutual veto between Junts and Podemos, but holding on. His ratification is de facto And this will continue as long as he can remain in power.
However, the threshold for Junts and ERC to continue supporting the PSOE could be exceeded if more information directly affecting Sánchez or the party begins to emerge. Both Junts and ERC privately acknowledge that they will not be able to sustain a government whose party is under scrutiny for irregular financing. Until now, the PSOE has categorically denied this, but it is also true that the Moncloa is unaware of the information held by the Civil Guard. Furthermore, it assumes that more leaders linked to the plot could emerge. Here, it is the PP who has the advantage, and Feijóo sought to demonstrate this by uttering a lapidary phrase: "Ábalos was the first, but Cerdán will not be the last."
