What is the adjusted population? A reef for agreement

MadridThe adjusted population has historically been one of the most controversial elements in the negotiations for a new model of regional financing under the common system, which is the one that provides resources to the autonomous communities. And it remains so in the ongoing discussion between the Ministry of Finance, ERC, and the PSC (Spanish Socialist Workers' Party) to finalize a proposed model that satisfies all parties and responds to the agreement between Republicans and Socialists for a unique system for Catalonia, as well as to the agreement of the last Generalitat-State Bilateral Commission.

Inch by inch. The key to the importance of the adjusted population is the fact that it determines how resources from the common pot are distributed, at least in the current model, that is, the one from 2009 and pending update for more than a decadea. Currently, to calculate the financing needs of the autonomous communities so they can provide basic services on an equal footing (we are talking about healthcare, education, and social services, devolved powers), a weighting is used between the actual population and various variables. From there comes the concept of adjusted population.

These variables include costs for healthcare, education (non-university and university education), social services, and other services. Added to this are demographic variables (e.g., population age), which carry significant weight, but also geographic variables (surface area, insularity, dispersion between municipalities). The weighting of each of the criteria is decisive in determining how much resources each autonomous region should receive and how public services should be provided under the same conditions.

What has happened in recent years is that while the reality of the regions has changed—that is, the aging population, but also the foreign or school-age population, or even depopulated areas—the weight of the system variables that determine the distribution of resources has remained the same. In this way, it is unclear whether, for example, spending on social services (their costs) has increased more in some territories where the population is older or the territory is less densely populated. From the academy, different experts have not only pointed to this distortion, but also to the fact that the calculation is fixed by estimates and variables of low technical resolution.

In the eyes of ERC—although Junts has also embraced this demand—diluting the weight of the adjusted population is key for Catalonia to benefit more. On the contrary, the criteria that the Ministry of Finance would defend, and which involve continuing to take this concept into account, worsen the situation in the Principality, as well as in the most populated autonomous communities (Andalusia and Madrid). The Republicans argue that it is necessary to put the real population at the center, including elements such as the cost of living, so that everything is calculated based on the number of inhabitants, but not the "adjusted" population. But smaller autonomous communities, such as La Rioja and Asturias, often demand, among other things, issues such as the fixed costs they bear, which, due to their smaller population, weigh more. That is why the Treasury seeks a balance.