What is Santiago Abascal looking for in Catalonia?

BarcelonaThe leader of Vox, Santiago Abascal, has decided to begin the electoral pre-campaign for the Spanish elections in Catalonia. He had not been there since the 2024 Catalan elections, but the political landscape is beginning to be mature enough to think that Pedro Sánchez will soon press the electoral button. This Thursday he passed through Lleida and on Friday it is the turn of Tarragona and Barcelona. "Abascal is starting the pre-campaign in Catalonia because of its importance and above all because it is one of the places where one can grow the most along with Ceuta, Murcia, and Valencia". This is how Vox sources consulted by ARA defend this strategic choice, and they argue that among the factors for the rise is the support captured from traditionally socialist areas and the dual vote with Aliança Catalana, which, they point out, benefits them significantly in the general elections.

Abascal is very clear about the roadmap, which involves reproducing throughout Spain the strategy that has been applied in recent years in Catalonia, with which they have been able to penetrate working-class neighborhoods based on anti-immigration discourse. According to the radical right-wing group, "Catalonia has been the vanguard of the consequences of the migration policies of recent years" and allows one to see the need to "reverse with policies" the course throughout the State. For this reason, they emphasize national priority in public aid –the cornerstone of the legislatures in the autonomous communities– and remigration, a concept coined by the international extreme right that refers to mass deportations which, in the case of Vox, are limited to criminals and those who "do not adapt" to Spanish laws, customs, and "way of life".

It is not anecdotal that Abascal lands in Lleida just two days after the demonstration organized by the party against "massive" immigration and "Islamization", nor that he comes to the Catalan capital when the "green belt" campaign begins –a play on words with the socialist red belt– throughout the Principality, holding micro-events in favor of mass deportations, national priority, and deregulation –the business touch–. According to Vox sources, the strategic line of the "green belt" is to promote throughout Spain the hunt for the socialist and abstentionist vote with the same anti-immigration workerist style, which in Madrid is fully represented by the deputy spokesperson in Congress, Carlos Hernández Quero. The diagnosis is that "fed-up-ness subtracts from the PSOE and adds to Vox". The message aims to put the focus on humble neighborhoods, pointing out that the money that ends up going to foreigners does not go to Spaniards.

Orriols' help

They are also closely following the Aliança Catalana phenomenon, which they believed from the beginning would be favorable to them. At the headquarters on Bambú Street in Madrid, they have long had clear conclusions: "In Catalonia, there are those who will vote for Aliança in the regional elections and Vox in the general elections. Sílvia Orriols is focused on the single issue and so are we: civilization or barbarism," they state. With the goal of "cleaning house," they are aware that neither does Aliança speak of independence nor do they focus on the 'Procés' because the struggle is different now. In their view, "Aliança amplifies Vox's discourse" and this will "make them grow," regardless of the impact they may have on the Catalan elections. They even accept that Aliança will take votes away from them in Parliament, but, in return, it will give them votes in the general elections, in which Sílvia Orriols' party refuses to run: "The dual vote has a lot of room for growth."

In the latest polls in Catalonia, such as the CEO, the leakage of votes from Vox to Orriols' party reaches one in every five supporters. Be that as it may, in the Spanish elections 21.8% of Orriols' voters would opt for Abascal, a fact that helps explain the projection of 6-7 Vox deputies in Congress estimated by the CEO, triple the current two. Thus, Aliança and Vox in a way feed off each other.

The goal of Abascal's leadership is to convey to citizens that they must have "enough strength" to make the great change they intend, especially regarding migration, and the goal is to double their deputies in Catalonia, even though they see it as "possible" to triple them. And what Vox wants to do is take the examples of the "work done" in the regional governments; there, the basic axes such as national priority are beginning to be applied, which is their particular Overton window for a far-reaching struggle.

Lleida, Tarragona and Barcelona in two days, but Abascal's landing will still have a future episode in this pre-campaign because he has left the city of Girona reserved.