What determines whether Vox continues to grow?
MadridPart One of the electoral cycle that began in Extremadura and continued in Aragon It has had no positive aspects. To begin with, it hasn't been positive for the citizens, insofar as it hasn't facilitated the formation of governing teams ready to begin a new phase of management with enthusiasm and concrete projects. People voted as they saw fit, naturally, and the purpose of these observations is not to fall into the trap of criticizing the community for the verdict of the ballot box.
But it must be acknowledged that the game hasn't started well, that with the result of this roll of the dice, no one can claim victory. If we look at it party by party, not even Vox can think that its undeniable rise guarantees it a decisive future in Spanish politics. It's worth remembering the expectations that Podemos raised in its early days. It's a political force that is now trying to survive surrounded by other fish of the same relative size, who haven't quite decided whether it's in their best interest to swim together and in which direction. Podemos garnered nearly five million votes. Ciudadanos was in a similar situation. and right now it doesn't even have water in which to wag one's tail.
It is understandable, in any case, that the increase in the far-right vote is causing more concern than the emergence of Ciudadanos and Podemos at a time of crisis for the two major national parties, challenged by the wave of anti-bipartisan sentiment. Albert Rivera's and Pablo Iglesias's parties were organizations that came to correct the system, but hardly to radically modify it. Although some called for, for example, the abolition of the Basque Economic Agreement, and others nationalized banking institutions. Vox, on the other hand, does seek more radical changes that in many respects would, for the sake of consistency, require a revision of the Constitution, which jeopardizes the maintenance of some of the fundamental rights it proclaims. And also the survival of the very structure of the State, especially with regard to the autonomous community model.
There is no doubt that the PP has taken a big risk with these appeals at the polls. Just look at how Vox is behavingOn the one hand, they're demanding positions and, ultimately, a grip on power, and on the other, they're doing nothing to move quickly in the negotiations. Rather, it seems they're in no hurry, wanting to wait and see what happens in Castile and León—the next election is on March 15—before assuming any kind of executive responsibility. The acting president of Extremadura, Maria Guardiola, has reason to be nervous. In a way, history is repeating itself from the previous regional elections. She didn't want to form a coalition with Vox, she was forced to backtrack by the party leadership, and the failure of that coalition was already evident. Vox preferred to withdraw from the regional governments. The far right will now give her a hard time, having increased its representation from 5 to 11 seats. The question is to what extent this result, and that of Aragon—where the far right has gone from 7 to 14 seats—will translate into a period of government action, or whether Vox will opt for a strategy of attrition, attacking the PP as much as, or even more than, it attacks the Socialists.
The precedent of Ciudadanos
In both cases, Abascal's party has a lot at stake. Remaining mired in agitation will eventually reach its limit. Rivera erred when he refused a coalition with the PSOE. It seems unbelievable now, but the truth is that at times the PP even saw the leader of Ciudadanos as a serious threat to its continued dominance as the main force uniting the center-right vote.
I mention this because, despite considering that Vox's rise challenges all political forces, the experiences of recent years show that the more or less spectacular gains of other parties haven't definitively placed them in a solid position. I know that the uncertainties of international politics, the growth of the far right in several countries, Trump's presidency, and other global factors suggest that Vox may have expectations of climbing the ranks. But I also believe in reactive phenomena, especially if it plays its cards wrong. We saw this in the recent elections in Portugal, for example.
Why is Vox rising?
It's true that each country has its own circumstances and dynamics. Regarding Spain, it's clear that Vox has gained ground among young people for many reasons, from job insecurity and the great difficulty in accessing housing, to inflation and low wages. What I dispute is whether these factors have led to a social divide, especially between generations. Democracy and the rights it guarantees are sorely missed when they cannot be exercised. Knowing this doesn't require having experienced Franco's regime firsthand. I acknowledge that decisions like the regularization of half a million immigrants They can create controversy, especially if no effort is made to explain or justify them. We may be in a transitional phase, which doesn't mean I assume that the evolution of Spanish political and institutional life—nor that of Catalonia—has taken an irreversible path of regression.
We have all seen rises and stagnation, as well as precipitous falls. What happens in the Spanish political landscape is primarily in the hands of the PSOE and the PP. The country's democratic history confirms that they have had and continue to have shared leadership. Fighting for power to the point of exhaustion is what can most contribute to the growth of the far right. I do not censor. the decision that Felipe González has madeHe will cast a blank ballot if Pedro Sánchez runs again. But I do think he's out of the running.
I understand he has a political disagreement with the Socialist leadership and its leader. whom he called "the fucking boss"Although González might think that with him in La Moncloa, Catalonia's evolution in recent years would have been different and wouldn't have reached such a point, he didn't have to explicitly acknowledge the withdrawal of votes from his party. With Feijóo, the problem is different. On the one hand, he should be able to define an alternative project. On the other hand, he must understand that Vox won't settle for being merely an add-on. Arriving at La Moncloa with the far right hanging on his arm would certainly keep him up at night.