Vox's strength threatens the PP's 'barons'

MadridOne of the headlines that the elections last Sunday in Extremadura It was Vox's resounding improvement that stood out: Santiago Abascal's party doubled its seats and percentage of the vote, garnering 40,000 more votes than two and a half years ago and becoming the second-largest party in the city of Cáceres. "They've made a significant gain, which we respect," sources from the PP headquarters in Madrid (Génova) indicated on Monday. This decisive rise of the far right derailed one of the objectives set by María Guardiola, who aspired to be less dependent on Vox after the party's success. derail the legislature with the refusal to approve the budget. And not only that, but Vox's strength could have repercussions in the regional elections scheduled for the first quarter of 2026 in Aragon, Castile and León, and Andalusia.

One of the key issues will be the Andalusian elections. In 2022, Juanma Moreno Bonilla achieved an unprecedented and unthinkable absolute majority, which the People's Party (PP) and Alberto Núñez Feijóo have used to boast about the party's governing capabilities. Now the challenge will be to repeat that feat, a goal that will not be easy: "When Vox is above 17%, it's very difficult to have an absolute majority in any region," admitted the Andalusian president on Monday, who expressed confidence in having a "sufficient and stable majority" to govern, without explicitly stating that the ultimate goal is an absolute majority. The latest barometer The Andalusian Center for Studies – the equivalent of the CEO – specifically placed Vox at 17.5% of the vote, leaving the PP teetering on the brink of an absolute majority. Later, the president of Aragon, Jorge Azcón, echoed this sentiment in an interview on esRadio: "It's simple arithmetic. If the third-largest party has such a high percentage of votes, absolute majorities become extraordinarily difficult." In Andalusia, the PP is resignedly accepting Vox's surge. Juanma Moreno Bonilla believes the far-right party "will continue to rise" while Sánchez remains in La Moncloa and admits to "concern" seeing that Abascal's party's "growth trend" will be "widespread." In contrast, Jorge Azcón maintains that Vox "remains a minority party," complains that it is "capitalizing on the anger" against Sánchez while being "comfortable in the opposition," and invites Abascal to decide whether he "continues to block or helps the PP governments." Currently, in the Aragonese parliament, Vox holds 7 out of 67 seats (28 for the People's Party); while in Andalusia, the far right has 14 out of 109, compared to the PP's 58, which governs comfortably with an absolute majority. As for Castile and León, the PP also depends on Vox, since it has 31 out of 81 seats and needs the far right's 13 to govern.

From the outside, the PP leadership is also not afraid of Vox's upward trajectory. The spokesperson in Congress, Ester Muñoz, emphasized on Tuesday that the Popular Party's pacts with the far right are not "what's frightening" and stressed that, despite the "rhetoric" that has fueled the PSOE in recent months, both parties managed to improve their results in Extremadura: "Who should be so afraid of Vox's rise? We have no fear at all," she concluded.

The Andalusian president predicts that Vox will only begin to decline when it "enters governments, assumes responsibilities, and begins to wear itself down and demonstrate that its policies are not viable in many cases." But Santiago Abascal's party has already gone through this stage and—partly following the experience and lessons learned by Podemos—eventually turned the page to distance itself from the PP and establish its own profile: in July 2024, He broke all regional alliances with the PP After the Popular Party reached an agreement with the Spanish government for the voluntary distribution of 350 foreign minors, what will they do now? Ester Muñoz believes they won't want to enter government: "I don't see them very keen. They decided to leave because they didn't like how things were being managed."

Eyes on Aragon

Before Andalusia and Castile and León, the next stop for the "domino effect" or "tsunami"—as it has been dubbed in Genoa—will be Aragon. Sources close to Jorge Azcón, consulted by ARA, believe the elections in Extremadura will have no impact and maintain that they are simply a "prediction" of the defeat of Pilar Alegría's PSOE. "We don't think we need to look anywhere else," they point out. Regarding Vox's electoral prospects, they avoid "futurism" while denying any fear of the rise of the far right and emphasizing that they will do their utmost to explain that "a strong PP government is necessary." They are also not worried about the polls, arguing that the "most significant" thing is the "disappearance" of the Socialists.

In parallel, sources close to Feijóo argue that Vox's demands, which they deem "irrational" in the Extremadura negotiations, could have "impact" on other elections: "We'll see what repercussions there are of perceiving them as a party that complicates everything." Regarding the new electoral landscape, they criticize the PSOE for its "only joy" being that the "far right they claim to be fighting" holds the key to future PP governments.

One of the conclusions drawn from the Extremadura election night is in terms of public opinion: the polls were unable to predict Vox's sharp rise. In the preceding weeks, all the surveys indicated that the far-right party would improve its results, but almost none predicted that they would reach eleven seats and 17% of the vote. Of the thirteen polls conducted between the election announcement and December 21st, only three placed Vox above ten seats, and only four predicted it would receive more than 14% of the vote. The average was nine seats and 13.75% of the vote. This undetectable vote is the one that could also emerge in future elections and shake up the PP's strategy.

Giving away or lending a car

Since Sunday night, the PP's insistent narrative has been that "the deadlock has eased" because María Guardiola only needs Vox's abstention and doesn't require an affirmative vote: "It's not the same as lending me your car as giving it to me," argue sources close to the PP leadership, using a metaphorical tone. Meanwhile, Guardiola, in an interview on Cope radio, asked that "the overall election result be considered." However, Vox has been quick to temper the PP's euphoria. Vox's regional leader, Óscar Fernández, made it clear that they will use the "strength" they have after receiving the support of "twice" the number of Extremadurans and resorted to irony when asked on Canal Extremadura Radio about Guardiola's hope for abstention: "I aspire to be a center forward." The far-right party will put forward the same proposal it made two months ago, which the PP rejected. The party's general secretary, Ignacio Garriga, told Telecinco that the landscape in which these talks must take place is "very different" from that of 2023. In other words, the far right is determined to make the PP suffer.