Vox changes strategy to regain power

MadridFour years ago, Vox entered a regional government in coalition with the PP for the first time. This occurred in Castile and León after the February 2022 elections, in which the PP leader Alfonso Fernández Mañueco failed to secure an absolute majority, and Vox replaced Ciudadanos (Cs) as the third-largest party. A little over a year later, when most of the autonomous communities held their elections, the same scenario played out. Santiago Abascal's party again demanded that the PP join their governments. At that time, holding ministerial positions was a show of force and served to establish a new framework that weakened the PP on the eve of the general elections. This strategy lasted barely a year. In July 2024, Vox withdrew en masse from all regional governments. Now, there's another about-face in Extremadura, where the far right wants to return to María Guardiola's administration.

What explains this change? Unlike the negotiations of 2022 and 2023, the initiative to propose a coalition did not come from Vox but from the PP, and therefore Abascal's party has simply accepted the challenge from the People's Party. The Vox leader reacted to the move by doubling down in an interview last Sunday. OK Diario, Arguing that "we need to be in government to guarantee the changes" the far right wants, he added, "We must have a vice presidency and regional ministries commensurate with our votes." Why now? "What's changed is the new distribution of power in Extremadura [Vox doubled its results] and an offer from the PP," explained party spokesperson José Antonio Fúster at a press conference on Monday. He asserted that, nevertheless, "nothing has changed" in Vox's philosophy, which "has always wanted" to be in government. However, not doing so has allowed them to avoid the political fallout that crises like the handling of the DANA storm in the Valencian Community or the wildfires in Castile and León have caused the PP.

While Vox's leadership denies any strategic shift, Abascal's recent claim seems sudden, given that for the past eighteen months they have boasted about the wisdom of abandoning government responsibilities. Looking at the far-right's performance in the polls, Vox has narrowed the gap with the People's Party (PP). According to the monthly surveys by the Center for Sociological Research (CIS), in July 2024, just before announcing the split, Vox stood at 12.2%, eighteen points behind the PP. By December 2025, immediately before the Extremadura elections, Vox's estimated vote share had reached 17.6%. "We don't operate based on whether governing benefits or weakens us. In each region, we move according to the position the citizens place us in," stated sources within the party leadership consulted by ARA.

The approach to other autonomous communities

According to the same sources, Vox could act differently in each region. Elections will be held in Aragon, Castile and León, and Andalusia in the coming months, with the general elections also on the horizon. Vox's priority, the party says, is that its policies be implemented, and this doesn't necessarily mean joining every government. In the Valencian Community, for example, the far-right party investigated Juanfran Pérez Llorca of the People's Party (PP) in late November, replacing Carlos Mazón, without joining the government. So why join in Extremadura? It depends, in part, on the level of trust each individual inspires in them regarding their ability to guarantee the implementation of agreed-upon policies, they argue. In Guardiola's case, her relationship with Vox is particularly poor, and therefore, joining the government is—they say—the best way to force her to comply. However, another interpretation of this shift by Vox could be that they are allowing themselves to be drawn into the PP's strategy. "Vox will only begin to decline when it enters government and assumes responsibilities," stated the Andalusian president, Juanma Moreno, of the People's Party, just after the elections in Extremadura. Former Vox leaders critical of Abascal's direction have also pointed to the change in rhetoric as a contradiction. This was the case with Juan García Gallardo, who was Vox's first vice president in Castile and León and ended up clashing with the leadership. On the other hand, Iván Espinosa de los Monteros, which constituted a think tank a few months ago From the position of calling for understanding between the PP and Vox, which was dismissed by Abascal, he celebrated that "finally" there is a possibility that they can come to an understanding to govern.