Theory and practice of instability

MadridWe have heard it said many times that we have a Spanish government paralyzed by the difficulties in managing relations with a Parliament that is quite compartmentalized, but the reality is that the legislature is moving forward without insurmountable obstacles. The important thing is that the country enjoys relative stability, without pre-election anxieties and with good economic prospects and employment figures. Noise, as much as you want, with good reason in many cases, such as that of the former socialist minister José Luis Ábalos and the perks of his ex-partner. But on another level, the balance between the partners in the investiture pact is maintained with the recomposition of the agreements. Apart from that, the polls are showing slight variations, without establishing a climate that allows us to record a change of tendency in favour of a clear alternative government. We have the feeling that many things can happen, but there is no general impression about how preferences will evolve in view of the next general elections, or when they will be held. The general intuition is that a very unpredictable and serious situation must occur for Pedro Sánchez's government to fall.

Many socialists, especially among the veterans, are extremely concerned about what the future of the PSOE will be when its current leader folds, whether voluntarily - that is a figure of speech, because that will never happen - or forced by the verdict of the polls. It is easy to imagine Sánchez heading to some European destination, but always dedicated to politics. I mention this because with the current socialist general secretary We have an example of hyperleadership This has had two main effects. Firstly, leaving the PSOE in hibernation, making a space trip like in some science fiction films, in which astronauts sail for decades without waking up until they reach the destination galaxy. That is why lifelong socialists are so worried, because they say that now there is no internal debate in the party and that nothing is like before, when regular meetings of the PSOE federal committee were held – its highest body between congresses – and "things could happen".

Now everything important is thought and done from the Palacio de la Moncloa. As an example, the day that Sánchez called one of these committees, there was only one person in the party. to defend amnesty for independence leaders and seek support to approve that "necessity should be made a virtue." I, who have followed the PSOE since the 80s and knew Txiki Benegas as head of the party's organization secretariat, had never seen a federal committee as peaceful and dedicated as the one that endorsed the need to forgive the promoters of the referendum of October 1st to achieve political normalization in Catalonia.

Having no rival

The second effect of Pedro Sánchez's hyper-leadership and the concentration of power in his hands has been to make it significantly more difficult for an alternative to emerge and consolidate itself, in the form of a solid option from the centre-right. Feijóo, the man who arrived from the forests of Galicia, is the one who has suffered and suffers the most. In the previous stage, with Pablo Casado, Sánchez found everything very easy. In fact, he did not have his rival. Casado had a lot to do. The socialist leader allowed himself the luxury of telling him in private: "When you take my place you will see..." That is to say, he made him believe that he imagined him in Moncloa. And, certainly, he did not arrive.

Casado's end was terrible and with one difference with respect to Sánchez: the latter was able to return to the front line, with a lot of effort and work, while the former leader of the PP was burned, probably forever. This is how Spanish politics goes, with an accumulation of incinerated politicians, while the socialist leader floats and survives, with a special ability to turn into ashes those who shortly before had wanted to condition him or take his place. I say all this because if Casado was brought down by the Madrid president, Isabel Díaz Ayuso, who did not allow her brother's business or the crisis of masks at a gold price to harm her, Feijóo is being greatly harmed by the continuity of Carlos Mazón in the Generalitat Valenciana.

I do not think in the least that the leader of the PP has to fall for that reason. This will not happen in any case. But the permanence of Mazón at the head of the Consell is a heavier burden for the PP every day that passes. I do not see it easy for criminal justice to issue a sentence on the responsibilities of this order. for the management of DANA On October 29 in Valencia, something similar could not have happened in relation to the 7,291 deaths of elderly people in Madrid's nursing homes during the pandemic. But the punishment is political, also through judicial action, in this case by the judge of Catarroja who is investigating what happened. Each ruling by the magistrate is once again harsher for Mazón and her continuity in office. The problem for the PSOE is that for a motion of censure it does not add up with Compromís, while the PP can resist entrenched as long as it has Vox.

Forgiveness of debts

The popular ones have another important problem with Vice President Maria Jesus Montero's proposal for debt forgiveness of the autonomous communities. While Catalonia continues to await the development of the agreements that allowed Sánchez's investiture, the rest of the country is wrapped up in the debate on this important contribution, prior to the new model of autonomous financing. In the end, everyone will drink water from this fountain. But now we have to make a fuss, as has always happened. Then will come what the proposal is accepted because the benefits of the operation cannot be underestimated. But it will have left the trail of a poorly conducted debate, which has led to the figures of some communities being described as crumbs. A scenario that ultimately benefits the allies of the PSOE. Junts and ERC are in harvest time. Simplifying it a lot, we would say that the former are dedicated to superstructures and placing highly qualified laborers, and the latter to infrastructure and food stuff. With the addition, in the case of Junts, from the end of the tactical episode of the question of confidence to which Sánchez would never have submitted. A case in point for a good course on the theory and practice of political instability.