It is in our best interest to end the legislative term with a new funding model.
To evaluate the new regional financing proposal, we must be guided by past experiences and future expectations. Looking back, I note, positively, that financing negotiations are not an all-or-nothing situation that repeats itself endlessly, but rather a continuous process in which, despite obstacles, progress has been made in the right direction, at a pace that—in generational terms—allows us to glimpse an outcome that, while not perfect, will be satisfactory. Virtually all Catalan political forces can claim credit for having contributed to this effort. Looking ahead, I fear it could be very problematic, and that now, indeed, a drastic setback is possible.
Since the investiture agreements of the Catalan and Spanish governments, substantial progress has been made in financing, both multilateral—debt forgiveness from the FLA (Regional Liquidity Fund)—and bilateral—I personally greatly value the transfer of the research fund; I hope it is not lost in the upcoming negotiations. Now, finally, the proposal for a new financing model has arrived! To analyze this, it's necessary to consider two aspects: the quantitative, that is, the resources the model makes available, and the qualitative, concerning organization and management.
The quantitative aspect has two facets: the total volume of new resources provided and their distribution. The autonomous communities would receive an additional €21 billion in 2027, representing 1.3% of GDP. My estimate was that the minimum required would be 2%, but I've always believed the increase should be gradual. Therefore, I think the 2027 increase is adequate, but it would be advisable to plan for a trajectory of increases in the direct contribution from the central government (the 2027 contribution is €1.7 billion). It would also be advisable for this contribution to be indexed to inflation or, even better, to increases in central government revenue.
Regarding the distribution, the figures collected (which are estimates) are logical and move in the right direction towards greater equality. For example, Catalonia receives only 28% more than Valencia in additional funding, despite having a 50% larger population. Conversely, Catalonia receives 80% more than Madrid in additional funding, even though its population is only 14% larger. Clearly, Madrid is being encouraged to harmonize its inheritance tax, something highly beneficial for the Spanish economy. Can you imagine the uproar if Catalonia, with its new resources, were to offer tax breaks on inheritance tax? Well, if Madrid doesn't harmonize it, either voluntarily or by higher law, Catalonia may be forced to do so. An interesting new feature is the voluntary mechanism for SMEs to share VAT. Also noteworthy is the special consideration given to the Mediterranean region. This highlights climatic factors but, indirectly, also its demographic weight.
Regarding the management of taxes collected in Catalonia and the regulatory capacity, there has been progress (in advance) and no doors have been closed. But we have fallen short. A lesson for next June: in this matter, the crucial issues must be resolved first and not left until the end. In our case, the crucial issue is not having an agency of sufficient size to satisfactorily manage taxes, but having the authorization and the right to do so. Then we will work with the Spanish agency on how to schedule the transfer of operations.
In conclusion, it is also necessary to retain a strategic consideration: to approach future negotiations from Catalonia, it is better to start from a current financing model that strengthens the state of autonomous communities—moving beyond the exhausted and outdated 2009 version while maintaining its federalizing spirit—than to allow its dismantling. Vox wants to eliminate the autonomous system. The PP will maintain it, but its financing model will tend toward defederalization, for example, by operating through sectoral budgets (education, health, etc.) based on a uniform model of service provision and practically earmarked for specific purposes.
The negotiation phase in Congress will now begin. Junts will play a major role. Given the current political landscape, I find it difficult to foresee Junts blocking any improvement in funding. Or that they aspire to a Pyrrhic victory, that is, to exploit the weakness of the Spanish government, weakening it even further and thus creating a bleak future in which all the "gains" will be erased. But I understand their desire to negotiate, and I pray that a reasonable margin has been set aside so that, with the goodwill of all parties, an agreement can be reached in which all potential votes in favor feel valued. Amen.
