The Sumar crisis that could bring down Pedro Sánchez

MadridThe media "noise" chasing the PSOE not only complicates Pedro Sánchez's life, but also impacts Sumar. The minority coalition partner in Spain has had to weather the storm this week in the face of attacks from the right, which has attempted to slander Yolanda Díaz by placing her as an "accomplice" in the alleged corruption it attributes to the Socialists. The parties to the left of the PSOE admit that this framework is detrimental to them and deepens their discontent. the crisis that this political space has been going through for some time. However, there are factors that go beyond this situation and that could be decisive in repeating a plurinational majority in Congress. The latest polls published by various media outlets, in fact, paint a catastrophic picture.

According to an Ipsos poll for The Vanguard, made in mid-May, Sumar would be left with only five deputies in Congress, which in the elections of July 23, 2023 ran under the same brand, would get two going separately. DYM's prediction for 20 minutes, which gives between 9 and 11 seats in Sumar and between 4 and 5 in Podemos in a scenario of absolute majority of PP and Vox. A survey from last month carried out by SocioMétrica for The Spanish Sumar sinks somewhat further, giving it seven seats. It leaves the purple party with four. The total (11 deputies) is also far from the 31 predicted on June 23rd, and it is a reminder that before the last Spanish elections, all the polls assumed Alberto Núñez Feijóo would manage to govern, but he is not. However, at the same time, within this political space, there is a recognition of a situation that "occupies and worries them" and that they are responding with "a more offensive policy." Maíllo, who has been critical of Díaz despite remaining firm in his defense of unity, admitted that "things could have been done much better than they have been."

One of the recurring criticisms Izquierda Unida makes of the Sumar project is that it considers it too soft on some positions. A criticism also voiced by other parties that make up the parliamentary group, such as Compromís. This week, while Díaz and her core group initially maintained a low profile in the face of reports of an alleged Socialist plot to discredit the Civil Guard, both the Valencian party and Izquierda Unida got ahead of them and came out to demand explanations from Sánchez's party. The second vice president took days to follow suit with statements this Thursday. On other issues, such as the position on rearmament, there have also been internal disagreements, and Esquerra Unida has chosen to speak out on its own.

On these issues, Sumar is caught between the PSOE, to which it is tied because they govern together, and Podemos, which, in its role as the opposition, has radicalized its discourse with frontal attacks against the executive it had been part of during the previous term. "Governing with the PSOE always kills the left," notes a voice from Sumar's leadership, reflecting on the need to ensure that the electorate identifies the minority part of the coalition as the guarantee that "pressure is being exerted" in the direction of social progress despite the limitation of not having a budget and, at the same time, without falling into a race against freedom, an ideological niche.

For the moment, Díaz has thrown herself into a tour of various parts of Spain to demand a reduction in the working day, even without the guarantee, due to the opposition Junts (Junts), that it can be achieved. On the housing front, Sumar clashes with the PSOE's attempt to push a more lukewarm initiative through the ministry led by Socialist Isabel Rodríguez. The same Sumar sources argue that, beyond promoting concrete measures, it is necessary to establish the goal of creating a narrative that "offers horizons" in the face of a political disaffection and reactionary trend that, they emphasize, is global.

The internal division

However, Sumar is also facing internal problems. In the last two years, Díaz has been forced to manage the departure of Podemos and the discontent of the other coalition parties, who for months accused her of a lack of internal democracy. This, coupled with the poor results in last year's European and regional elections, forced her to abandon her organizational responsibilities in Sumar and reformulate the project. For the moment, the changes in internal functioning have calmed the once-vociferous complaints, but the remaining members of the Sumar parliamentary group are avoiding openly committing to the matter. Díaz's project ahead of the upcoming Spanish elections. Sumar, on the occasion of its assembly a couple of months ago, called for unity, which We can seem a little further away every day.

If the vote ultimately fragments, it will be one of the factors that will lower the number of seats, warned Maíllo. "We must prioritize common projects over likes and dislikes. [...] If one is an obstacle, they must step aside," he said this Friday regarding the possibility of overcoming worn-out leadership without directly showing anyone the way out. The enmity between Irene Montero and Yolanda Díaz is well-known, and the former Minister of Equality also stood up Maíllo at an event a couple of weeks ago in Andalusia. The purple party fiercely defends Montero's candidacy, while Sumar has not officially announced that Díaz will be the candidate. However, those around her almost assume that she will run, and for the moment, beyond Maíllo's insinuations, which open the door to placing a new face at the head of a unitary project, no member has asked for the vice president's boss.

Next year's Andalusian elections will be a test of fire In view of the possibilities of a pact in the upcoming Spanish elections. While Sumar and Izquierda Unida are determined to go together, Podemos doesn't seem willing to give in to their demands. The final picture will determine the subsequent negotiations within the Spanish government. And Pedro Sánchez's future depends on it.