The scenarios of the agonizing PP-PSOE struggle

MadridThe Spanish Socialist Workers' Party (PSOE) and the Spanish government will face a particularly difficult time in the coming weeks. Their poor showing in the Aragonese regional elections will reignite speculation about the possibility of a general election this year. The ultimate test, however, will be in Andalusia next June. Until then, calculations and rumors will continue, but it is unlikely that Pedro Sánchez will dissolve the Valencian Parliament (Corts) before completing the current cycle, which includes Castile and León in March and the Andalusian elections three months later. In any case, he could combine the latter with the general election, but that would seem like a desperate measure. In fact, many Socialists believe that everything still points to a desire to see out the legislature, however much the PSOE may be struggling to adapt to the circumstances and try to recover, despite the poor electoral results, both those already achieved and those they fear from now on.

In this sense, some believe that Sánchez's selection of ministers as lead candidates in the current cycle of regional elections—such as Vice President María Jesús Montero in Andalusia or Minister Pilar Alegría in Aragon—is primarily to ensure his control as much as possible. In reality, the PSOE has been very concerned about the Aragonese campaign, especially due to the polls. Many of these surveys have predicted, for example, that Vox could become the second largest political force in Zaragoza, relegating the Socialists. A strong reaction from the government shouldn't be expected if things go badly for Alegría, but the PSOE will certainly feel the blow.

For now, critical reflections are whispered; few want to take a stand, especially considering that after Aragon, there are still elections to come. Sánchez has a large critical faction among the veterans—Felipe González and Alfonso Guerra never miss an opportunity to demonstrate this—and pockets of dissent are emerging, still somewhat timid, but they are beginning to gain traction. For example, the Social Democracy 21 Manifesto, presented by former minister and former president of Red Eléctrica Española, Jordi SevillaIn which he proposes a "change of course," calling for a rapprochement with the PP and abandoning the alliance scheme with Podemos or Sumar and the pro-independence parties that, with its ups and downs, has characterized recent legislatures.

For now, these explorations of what post-Sánchez politics might look like lack a defined form or scope, although they do reveal that some would like to prepare for the future by modifying the strategy followed in recent years, in fact, since the vote of no confidence that brought down Rajoy. It's difficult to say whether these kinds of initiatives are coming too soon or too late. The option of seeking agreements with the PP is nonexistent. The mutual contempt has already gone too far. The meeting that Sánchez and Feijóo were supposed to hold on January 18—postponed due to the Adamuz train accident—remains unscheduled. In any case, everything the Socialists say about the Popular Party leader stems from considering him a prisoner of Vox. In fact, this is the agony of the PP, which has no alternative to a pact with the far right. And the Popular Party's response to Sánchez oscillates between denigration and deep distrust.

Change of mentality

If the PP and PSOE seek to reconcile in the future, it must be based on a new parliamentary composition that facilitates a shift in mindset and strategy. We have already seen, for example, that the PSOE wasted no time considering whether it was worthwhile for the PP to govern Extremadura without Vox, with the Socialists abstaining, as proposed by the former president of that region, Juan Carlos Rodríguez Ibarra. The PSOE's priority is to continue fighting, and to do so by combating the discouragement and abstention of its voters from previous elections. The insults and disparaging remarks of the American tycoon Elon Musk against SánchezHis proposal to ban access to social media for those under 16 may have helped the Socialist leader regain contact with undecided voters. Nor has the support he received from the People's Party (PP) itself been insignificant, given the scandal surrounding the treatment he received. The popular leadership gave the councilwoman of Móstoles who has accused the mayor of this town of harassing her. Ayuso's team gave the complainant shameful advice, trying to silence her and telling her that they would investigate her. However, the PSOE is in no position to give lessons on this matter, after having shelved the complaints of Moncloa employees, also for harassment, against Francisco Salazar, one of Sánchez's trusted men.

All this is happening while floods in most of the Andalusian provinces – so far with one fatality – and the consequent evacuation of more than 11,000 people provide a picture of suffering and disruption to daily life that fuels a deep unease and a feeling of misrule. During the years I lived in Italy, the phrase "It's raining, you pig of a government", which we could translate, toning it down a bit, as "it's raining, damn government." But the frustration and losses don't stem solely from the consequences of the rain, but from all the repercussions of the Adamuz train accident, including the announcement of a three-day strike in the sector. The existence of institutional collaboration, regardless of political affiliation, has been a source of frustration and dejection these past few days. But, once again, many people have lost everything. This struggle is also agonizing, like that of the citizens affected by the commuter rail crisis, which was more than predictable.