The first CIS after Ceuta: the PSOE falls two points and the PP stagnates

Barcelona / MadridThe PSOE is losing support, but it is holding firm and would win the elections again, according to the first CIS poll after the crisis in Ceuta. The September barometer, published this Monday, gives the socialists 31% of the votes, two points less than in the July survey, and sees how the PP narrows the gap, which stands at just 5.5 points of difference – in the previous one it was almost eight –. The popular party, however, only rises half a point in vote estimation, from 25% to 25.5%. The far-right Vox party, which is focusing a large part of its discourse on the migration crisis, obtains limited growth of 1.3 points (from 15.3% to 16.6%), while Se Acabó la Fiesta, the party of the ultra Alvise Pérez, falls from 2.6% to 1.8%. "The real poll will take place at the ballot box," said PSOE spokesperson Montse Mínguez on Monday regarding this, even though this survey is much more favorable than the polls published last week. From the newspaper El País to La Razón and Abc, they gave a clear victory to the right-wing vote against the support for the left. For this reason, the PP has described the CIS forecast as a "joke" and a "bad taste prank", reports Andrea Zamorano.

The Popular Party spokesperson, Borja Sémper, has lamented that month after month it is proven that the body presided over by José Félix Tezanos "is used in a partisan manner". "Does anyone still believe what the CIS says?", Sémper said in a press conference. The PP spokesperson has rejected giving an "appearance of truthfulness" to a survey that "does not work with technical, serious and verifiable criteria" and has denounced that it has not asked about "what the Spanish think about the government's management of the Ceuta crisis".

The situation in Ceuta has put the Spanish government against the ropes, but the barometer gives Pedro Sánchez arguments to support his goal: to exhaust the legislature, which ends in 2027. In the previous barometer, the Socialists rose 1.7 points in vote estimation –up to 33% of the votes– despite the recent conviction of former minister José Luis Ábalos and the series of judicial cases that splash the PSOE. The July barometer, however, also coincided with the investiture of the Andalusian president, the Popular Party's Juanma Moreno, after reaching an agreement with Vox. Now the survey has been carried out after the massive entry of migrants into Ceuta on July 30 (about which the CIS also dedicates itself to asking), between September 1 and 4, based on 4,042 interviews.

Up to 82.2% of Spaniards consider that it is necessary to reinforce the borders to face crises like those of this summer, but this has not translated into an increase in concern about immigration as a problem to be solved. The first remains housing, with 37.5% —although it is lower compared to the last barometer—, followed by the economic crisis, with 21.6% (previously it was 17.3%), and in third position appears migration, which is situated as the main problem for 19.7% of those surveyed. This represents less than in July, when immigration was the most relevant issue for 23.4% of Spaniards.

Regarding the cause of this crisis, 67.7% of those surveyed consider that there are countries or global actors trying to "create problems or misunderstandings that could affect the relations between Spain and Morocco" and, among these possible third actors, 49.1% see the hand of the United States, 38.1% Morocco itself and 35.4% Israel.

The partners are falling

In fact, according to the CIS barometer, the socialists' problem would be their partners in Sumar, who are not lifting their heads and still do not have a defined candidate. The minority partner of the progressive coalition stands at 5.7%, far from the result it obtained in 2023, which climbed to 12.1% of the votes –although it only loses four tenths compared to the previous barometer–. However, Podemos is growing, going from 2.5% to 3.7% in vote estimation, up to 1.2 points more. These numbers arrive precisely when they have already anointed Irene Montero as a candidate for the 2027 general elections, and they have opened up to running in primaries with Sumar.

Regarding the pro-independence and nationalist partners, they remain stable. ERC obtains 2.5% (in July it was 2.7%) and Junts repeats the 0.7% of the previous barometer. The PNV falls from 1% to 0.7% of the votes, while EH Bildu manages to grow and goes from 0.8% to 1.3% of the votes. The BNG, for its part, obtains 0.7% of the support, two tenths less than in the previous survey.

As a result of these numbers, there are already those within the PSOE calling for the left to run strategically in the next elections, as explained by the ARA. This would involve an alliance in the Senate and Sumar not running in the smaller districts, which are not proportional and where it is very difficult to obtain representation beyond the PP and the PSOE.