The PSC would win again without an independence alternative in case of repeat elections

If the elections were repeated in October, Salvador Illa's PSC would once again achieve victory with a result of between 39 and 45 deputies, a range that could allow them to improve on the 42 seats they obtained on May 12th. This is what the Barometer of the Centre for Opinion Studies, made public this Thursday, shows, the first since the May 12th elections were held and the investiture negotiations began. According to the survey, Junts would remain in second place with a range of between 31 and 36 seats (they currently have 35) and Esquerra in third, with a range of between 19 and 24 seats (they currently have 20). With this data, the independence movement of Junts, ERC, and the CUP would not sum the absolute majority of 68 deputies even if they achieved the best result assigned to them by the CEO – with the ranges there is a difference of between 1 and 6 seats. They would remain at 66 seats in the best-case scenario, and a possible pro-independence majority would have to go through Aliança Catalana, which could win between 1 and 4 seats and improve on the two they currently have. However, Junts, ERC, and the CUP have already closed the door to negotiating with the far-right pro-independence ultras and, in fact, have signed with the PSC and the commons a commitment to create a sanitary cordon for them in Parliament along with Vox and not to seek or accept their votes. On the other hand, the viability of the PSC, Esquerra, and commons coalition to invest Illa would depend on how well these three parties performed, with a vote frontier between them, and they would regain a majority if they registered a result in the middle or upper range of their forecast.The rest of the parties would remain in the same order as they came out of the ballot boxes on May 12. The PP, the fourth force with 15 deputies, could lose two or improve its result to 18 seats. Vox is the only party that, according to the survey, would have nothing to gain in case of an electoral repeat, because the maximum it could get is between 7 and 11 seats, which are what it already has now. In the best-case scenario for both parties, the sum of PSC and PP is 63 seats. Insufficient, therefore, to form a government without looking for a third partner. It could be the commons, but so far they have refused to repeat the sum that made Jaume Collboni mayor in Barcelona. Regarding the two smaller left-wing groups in the chamber, the CUP could obtain between 1 and 6 deputies (it currently has 4) and the commons, between 5 and 8 (they currently have 6). Jéssica Albiach's party is the one that could suffer the most vote transfer to the PSC in the event of an electoral repeat, up to 10%. The one that best retains its voters is Junts (81% would pick up Carles Puigdemont's ballot again), followed by the PSC, which would again seduce almost 8 out of 10 of its sympathizers on May 12th. For its part, Esquerra has a significant vote leakage towards abstention (30%), although it resists and could still improve results because it incorporates voters who had not voted or had voted blank in the previous elections. The fieldwork for the survey was carried out between June 10th, the day the Parliament was constituted, and July 8th, by which time the scandal of the posters about the Maragalls that implicates ERC and that the ARA uncovered had already been made public the scandal of the posters about the Maragalls that implicates ERC and that the ARA uncovered. In a press conference, the director of the CEO, Jordi Muñoz, explained that the survey already includes part of the possible impact of this information, which was published on July 1st.Who will be the president?

The CEO also asked Catalans who they believe has "more possibilities" of being the next president of the Generalitat: 65% of those surveyed think it is Illa who has the best chance, while 14% believe it is Carles Puigdemont, waiting to know how his return to Catalonia turns out. Furthermore, Illa is the only political leader who passes: he has a 5.2 out of 10, ahead of the acting president, Pere Aragonès (4.8), Laia Estrada and Jéssica Albiach (4.6), Carles Puigdemont (3.9), Sílvia Orriols (3.6), Alejandro Fernández (3.1) and Ignacio Garriga (1.9).Supporters of the PSC, Esquerra, and the commons largely believe that it is a pact between these three parties that should lead Illa to preside over the Generalitat, ahead of other options. The most enthusiastic are the commons: 46% support this sum, a percentage that is 28% in the case of the socialists and 26% in that of the republicans. Regarding Junts, only 27% of their voters believe that Puigdemont has a chance of being invested.The evolution of independentism

According to the Barometer, support for independence is currently at historic lows: only 40% of those surveyed defend independence, the lowest figure in the historical series, which began in 2015 and had never dropped below 41%. On the other hand, there has never been such a high percentage of non-independists: 53% declare themselves to be, a percentage that fits into the trends already detected by previous barometers. Also regarding the relationship with Spain, for the first time since 2015, supporters of Catalonia being an autonomous community outnumber independists: 34% state they are satisfied with the current territorial model, ahead of the 31% who would want it to be an independent state; behind them are supporters of federalism (22%, one point less than in the last Barometer) and of a regional model (7%, also two points less).Furthermore, the drought is no longer the primary concern for Catalans, as it was in March of this year: the top spot is now occupied by "dissatisfaction with politics," followed by access to housing, Catalonia-Spain relations, and immigration. Only 2% believe that water scarcity and climate change are Catalonia's main problem.