The PP's dilemma with the motion of no confidence

MadridThe PP has been living in a Groundhog Day for a long time. Every time a judicial scandal from the political circle closest to Pedro Sánchez breaks out, the idea of forcing a motion of no confidence arises. This is what has happened these days with the indictment of former socialist president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero for influence peddling at the National Court. Just as happened with the investigations against José Luis Ábalos, first, and Santos Cerdán, months later, in cases of alleged corruption. Should Alberto Núñez Feijóo push for a motion of no confidence to try to shorten the legislature? The conclusion reached by Génova for now is the same as in previous cases. The PP will not take any step without having guaranteed support.

the accusation of the socialist former president José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero for influence peddling by the National Court"We will not give Sánchez a victory with a failed motion of no confidence," defended the PP spokesperson in the Senate, Alicia García, in a press conference on Thursday, in which she emphasized that it is parties like the PNB or Junts that must "reflect." Although the previous day Feijóo did not want to completely close the door to presenting it at some point – "I will do everything possible for there to be a change of government," he said in an informal conversation with journalists in Congress – for now, nothing is changing, no matter how much some voices from the Basque nationalist circles, such as former spokesperson in Congress Iñaki Anasagasti, have already called for a change of stance in their party and publicly support the motion of no confidence. Despite these opinions emerging, the PP is convinced that, no matter how much pressure may increase, for now, the leaders of the PNB and Junts remain firm in their refusal to give them their votes.

Both formations, however, have been pointing towards the path of early elections for some time. The minority with which Sánchez governs and, above all, the cases of alleged corruption that have emerged around the PSOE are the reasons. This Sunday, the jeltzales have insisted on this, in a rally in Durango in front of 2,500 people. "It is certainly very difficult for Sánchez to be able to complete the legislature. I would rather say that it would be irresponsible to continue beyond 2026 without direction, without budgets, without a stable majority and with an uncontrolled and judicialized agenda," pointed out the president of the PNB, Aitor Esteban.

The race until 2027

So, while awaiting Zapatero's judicial declaration on June 2nd – if there are no calendar changes – and whatever else may become known, it does not seem that the alleged corruption will bring down the progressive government now, just as the scandals of the two former PSOE organization secretaries did not. For the PP, this legislature has been a long-distance race with the dual objective of consolidating Feijóo's leadership and weakening Sánchez's figure. In this regard, in Génova they consider that time is working against the PSOE leader and that each new piece of information about Zapatero or other pending court cases – that of Sánchez's brother is imminent, as is that of his wife – contributes to diminishing the chances that in the next general elections, scheduled for 2027, the scenario of four years ago, which left Feijóo on the doorstep of Moncloa, could be repeated.

In fact, the day before the former Spanish president's indictment and the day after the Andalusian elections, the day after the Andalusian electionsthe call for an extraordinary state congress given the possibility that Sánchez might advance elections

Having the party cohesive and strong throughout the Principality is one of the tools to improve Feijóo's electoral prospects. In fact, the commitment to strengthen itself organically was already the move the PP leader made a year ago with the call for an extraordinary state congress in view of the possibility that Sánchez would advance elections. A scenario that has not finally occurred, but which remains present in the forecasts of political analysts and parties.