The specter of a repeat election in Extremadura is shaking the PP

MadridThe People's Party continues to pull every string to retain the presidency of the Regional Government of Extremadura. A month and a half after the elections, in which María Guardiola won again And with Vox doubling its number of seats, negotiations are more deadlocked than ever. After Santiago Abascal's party announced yesterday one No After a resounding rejection of María Guardiola and the Extremadura candidate's call for "responsibility" from the PSOE to unblock the situation, the PP's national leadership has adopted the roadmap of the baroness The PP, which is focused on regional affairs, admits it prefers a single-party government through abstentions from either the PSOE or Vox to a coalition with the far right. Despite having negotiated a joint government with Santiago Abascal's party for over a month, the deadlock in talks has forced the PP to look to the PSOE. Sources close to Alberto Núñez Feijóo blame the Socialists for their agreement with the far right and justify their abstention by arguing that if the Socialists campaigned as a "deal to stop the far right," it is now "consistent" for them to abstain to prevent Vox from entering the regional government. These same sources make it clear that they would prefer "not to hand over any portfolios" and acknowledge that if Abascal's party doesn't lower its demands—they want ministries with budgets—"the situation becomes more complicated." "Postponing the negotiations is bad news," they add. What they do rule out, despite the impasse, is a repeat election. "What will be different?" they ask at the People's Party headquarters. They also don't foresee María Guardiola having to step aside due to disagreements with the far right, whom they criticize for wanting to "replace" her despite having obtained 26 percentage points less at the polls. Later, Feijóo's team clarified that it wasn't a change of position, but rather that "in a completely general sense," they prefer single-party governments to "handing power over to other parties." However, they also acknowledged that "since neither Vox nor the PSOE intends to abstain in exchange for anything, we are left with no option but to explore securing support in exchange for something, which could be seats in the cabinet," the same sources concluded.

And indeed, the Socialist Party has closed the door on abstaining to facilitate a PP government. "It's not even being considered; the party isn't interested in that," maintain high-ranking sources at La Moncloa (the Prime Minister's residence). "We are the alternative project to them," they argue. Only the mayor of Mérida, Antonio Rodríguez Osuna, opened himself to a Socialist abstention "with conditions" if Guardiola's investiture fails in the first instance. In an interview on Cadena COPE, he argued that, in this future scenario, it would be "logical and coherent" for the PP to call the PSOE to offer dialogue.

In recent weeks, Feijóo has appealed to Vox's "proportionality" and "responsibility" to reach agreements, both in Extremadura and Aragon. "The protest vote must be put to work," he said on Tuesday from Valencia. The first investiture debate in Extremadura will be on March 3: if an understanding between the PP and Vox is not reached before then, the deadline to avoid a repeat election will be May 3. This will not be the only negotiation underway between the two parties, since, in parallel, the PP will also have to deal with Vox in Aragon if it wants to repeat the presidency of Jorge AzcónThe PP's change of course in the negotiations in Extremadura came on the same day as Feijóo He has raised his voice in Congress against Sánchez, who he blamed for the Adamuz accident.

Guardiola's stormy relationship with Vox

All of this is something Vox will surely exploit to undermine the PP. The far-right party constantly criticizes the Popular Party for its alliances with the Socialists. In fact, just this Tuesday, Abascal urged Feijóo to "choose" whether he wants to "change course" or continue working with the Socialists: "If he wants to maintain the same policies that forced us to leave government, he has the PSOE for that, and we're not needed."

The PP and Vox walked hand in hand in the autonomous communities—including Extremadura—until Santiago Abascal ordered to abandon the coalitions as a protest against the distribution of migrants that the PP agreed to with the Spanish government. However, the animosity between the two parties in Extremadura surfaced from the beginning. After the May 2023 elections, Guardiola asserted that he could not "let in" those who "deny gender violence," alluding to Vox, but ten days later he had to swallow this refusal and signed a coalition agreement with the far right. "I put my word behind the interests of the people of Extremadura," he said to justify the change.