The normal accident theory

BarcelonaCan a glass of water cause a nuclear accident? The probability is extremely low, but that's what happened on March 28, 1979, at the Three Mile Island nuclear power plant in the United States. A small amount of water—the equivalent of a glass—seeped through a leak in the pneumatic system, activating valves that ultimately shut off the cold water circuit meant to cool the reactor core. The emergency system failed because, a few days earlier, technicians had left the tubes connecting it to the circuit closed, and the warning light that should have illuminated the problem also failed to activate. The result was a partial meltdown of the reactor core, fortunately without any direct fatalities. Individually, all these errors would have been minor, and in fact, most had already occurred at that and other nuclear power plants. But, taken together, they led to one of the worst nuclear accidents to date.

The Three Mile Island incident inspired Charles Perrow, a renowned sociologist at Yale University, to formulate his theory of the normal accident. Perrow posited that modern systems—nuclear power plants or, for example, railway infrastructure—are made up of thousands of interconnected parts that are impossible to track individually to predict their behavior. The theory concludes that accidents can happen without clear causes, obvious errors, or any obvious villains. The random factor is, therefore, a fundamental part.

In the last week, two fatal accidents have caused panic and chaos on the state railway system. In Adamuz, investigations appear to point to a faulty weld on a small section of track. as the cause of the derailment of two trainsIn Gelida it was a wall fell and impact the train's cab. Applying the theory of a normal accident, both were possible. And in both, randomness played a significant role: if the wall in Gelida had collapsed—as on other occasions—when no train was passing, the impact would have been less severe, and probably, if two trains hadn't simultaneously encountered the damaged section of track in Adamuz, the consequences wouldn't have been so dramatic.

Future Plans

But it happened. And since then, the feeling of insecurity on the tracks has only grown, with users anxiously awaiting urgent inspections to certify that the trains were safe to run again. To regain public trust, the authorities will have to respond transparently, assuming their respective responsibilities and announcing improvements that probably wouldn't have been implemented without the accidents. Regarding commuter rail, the Spanish government acknowledges that Historical underfunding makes the network "more vulnerable"Everyone has plans and theories about the future, but the study of randomness, as University of California physicist Leonard Mladinow reminds us, tells us that crystal balls are only useful for observing the past.

This week's details

Salvador Illa is recovering in the hospital, and while he is on leave, his duties are being delegated to Health Minister Albert Dalmau. This unusual situation has led to some curious moments, such as when the government spokesperson, Silvia Paneque, referred to the minister as "President Dalmau." Catalunya Ràdio dubbed him Òscar Dalmau, who, ironically, works for a rival organization.

To get ahead of a likely major event, the media prepares articles that we keep under wraps until the time comes to publish them. Every journalist fears that one of these articles will be published prematurely, especially if it concerns someone's death. It's not common, but it happens. This week it happened to Cadena SER, which mistakenly published the obituaries of Jordi Pujol and Pasqual Maragall.