The last-minute change that dooms the social safety net to failure

MadridIt was a race against time, open until the very last minute. That's how the talks unfolded between the Spanish government and its partners to break up the omnibus decree that included the pension increase and the social safety net. This decree law was defeated in Congress last week by the votes of the PP and Junts because, despite supporting the increase in pension payments, neither group wanted to endorse the anti-eviction measures. Therefore, within the framework of the negotiations, it was crucial how the decree law was divided in two: that is, which measures from the overall social safety net—primarily subsidies for electricity bills—would be included with pensions and which with the anti-eviction measures. Why? Because anything related to pensions was sure to pass, while anything related to anti-eviction measures would be very difficult to pass, as has already been demonstrated by the announcement of Junts and the PP's votes against it.

That's why the last-minute change made by the Spanish government to split the omnibus decree-law was key. Although, in an initial draft sent to the parliamentary groups, energy supply subsidies were included with the decree-law to increase pensions – as confirmed by ARA – after the Council of Ministers meeting, this changed: the Spanish government decided to do it the other way around and include the electricity subsidy with the anti-eviction measures. In fact, it added twenty other items such as aid for DANA (isolated high-altitude depression) relief and tax breaks for energy efficiency improvements. This division was more of a strategic move to pressure the PP (People's Party) and Junts (Together for Catalonia) than a consideration of its chances of success, since both Junts and the PP have already warned that they will not accept the anti-eviction measures.

Why was this last-minute change made? Sources at La Moncloa (the Prime Minister's residence) explain that it was the "most appropriate decision by the majority" of the Council of Ministers. In this way, the Spanish government has once again placed Junts and the PP between a rock and a hard place: if they vote against the anti-eviction measures, they will also vote against the aid for the DANA storm, the social electricity voucher, various tax breaks, and the Auto Plan, which includes subsidies for electric vehicles. No "To be in the social safety net is to be directly responsible for harming millions of Spaniards," the Minister of the Presidency, Félix Bolaños, declared yesterday, while Lara Hernández, of Sumar, stated that they would bring the anti-eviction measures to Congress as many times as necessary, hoping that Junts would "change its mind" and instead implement them alone in a decree-law, as they considered that to be giving up the fight.

Members of the regional parliament maintain that they will not support measures to halt evictions – despite the changes introduced by the PNV and the PSOE to protect small landowners—The same leader in Congress, Miriam Nogueras, explained on Instagram that, "pending reading the fine print," they will vote against extending the measure, considering that it "doesn't solve the problem" and is "unfair." They argue that an issue they believe should be resolved by the administration is being placed on "residents and small property owners."

However, sources within Junts consulted by ARA also indicate that they are in favor of maintaining subsidies for energy supplies and would vote in favor if they were implemented alone or in conjunction with the decree increasing pensions. Will the Spanish government change this? Although there are no direct negotiations underway between Moncloa and Junts, there is a month of back-and-forth before it must be ratified in Congress.