BarcelonaYou have been psoed is one very popular mem on the social networks often used by critics of Pedro Sánchez's government. It's a syndrome attributed to PSOE members, due to the gap between the agreements that support them on paper and what, later, ends up materializing in reality, always so complex. It's also used when there are announcements that later don't materialize or end up being half-baked. In other words: being PSOE-ized is synonymous with being deceived or looking like you've been deceived.
This is the fear that Junts has had since the beginning of its relationship with Pedro Sánchez, the specialist in resistance. When Carles Puigdemont and his leadership decided to make a strategic shift and give negotiation a chance by signing the Brussels agreement almost two years ago, they ran the risk of what they had been criticizing for years in Esquerra. That's why they signed that pact, asserting that they would be paid in advance, that they would have an international mediator, and that there would be no support for the PSOE "in exchange for nothing." However, experience has shown that it hasn't served to gain more than the Republicans, since apart from the Catalan issue in Congress and the amnesty law—two not minor issues, by the way—the rest of the pact's issues, such as the delegation of powers over immigration, the Catalan language in the European Union, or Puigdemont's return, are not. For some, it's because they don't report directly to the Council of Ministers, and for others, it's due to a lack of will.
In this context, a few days before the second anniversary of Sánchez's investiture (November 16), the majority of the Junts leadership is leaning toward severing its relationship with the Moncloa. All this, despite the executive's latest move with Germany: to open a "dialogue" for the official status of Catalan. The date circled on the calendar is Monday, when the executive is due to meet in Perpignan to stage a break that will then be ratified by the membership.
The only thing that could change his mind would be a turn of events this weekend (what could the PSOE do to change Puigdemont's mind?) or if on Monday the Junts party opted to withdraw support for the Moncloa with a clause allowing them to back out if on November 17, when the German Council again decides that Catalan must be made official in the European institutions.
And what will breaking with the PSOE mean? Most sources maintain that Junts will decide to withdraw support for the Spanish government, but they rule out holding a vote of no confidence to bring the tandem of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Santiago Abascal to the Moncloa. The most likely short-term maneuver is that the break will translate into voting No to all of the Spanish government's proposals in Congress, adding more pressure on Pedro Sánchez and demonstrating that he lacks a majority to govern. Another remote (and, in principle, implausible) scenario looming is that, later on, a vote of no confidence could be considered "instrumental" to swear in an independent president to hold elections. Unlike in the Parliament, they don't need to be a deputy, and from there, the brainstorming reaches Josep Sánchez Llibre, who has denied to this newspaper having received any offer.
Getting trapped
Those in Junts don't believe the Spanish president will serve out his term until 2027, despite the fact that the PSOE (and also the PSC) have been actively and passively asserting this. Puigdemont, therefore, fears being trapped in the investiture bloc, alongside Esquerra (Republican Left), and having to go into an election with nothing in the bag, having been PSOE-ized. However, if there are no elections soon, the situation could drag on for them: for Junts, because Sánchez will surely bring to a vote issues that will place them in a dilemma—what if they are positive measures for Catalonia?—and also for Sánchez because, although he is determined to hold out and the alternative is the right, it is still an unprecedented anomaly for a Spanish government to intend to spend its term without approving a single budget.
