The Alliance is growing and Vox is almost catching up with the PP in Catalonia, according to the CEO.

BarcelonaThe far right continues to grow in Catalonia, both the pro-Spanish and pro-independence sides. On the one hand, the Catalan Alliance is expected to increase its support, according to the latest poll by the Generalitat's Center for Opinion Studies (CEO) from this second quarter, rising to between 10 and 11 seats compared to the two it currently holds in the Parliament. On the other hand, Vox is also expected to have more electoral support in Catalonia, to the point that it could overtake the PP. In any case, the Catalan Socialist Party (PSC) would still win the Parliament elections, followed by Junts and Esquerra.

According to CEO predictions, the PP and Vox would vie to become the fourth largest force in Parliament. "Worse for the PP, Vox could overtake the PP in seats," said CEO director Joan Rodríguez Teruel at a press conference on Wednesday. According to the data, Alianza would rise to fifth place, while Comuns, which remains at between 5 and 6 seats (now in the CUP), would remain the same.

In terms of governability, it would add up to the absolute majority of the current left-wing parties (PSC, ERC, and Comunes) at the high end of the range (71); the PSC has so far refused to join forces with Vox, while the independentists also veto Aliança Catalana. So, these would be two non-operational government options.

The PSC stagnates and Junts continues to decline

The PSC would finish first, but without gaining support, or could even lose it compared to last year's elections, leaving it with between 40 and 42 seats. It now has 42 in the Catalan Parliament. "There would be a certain negative impact from the political context," Teruel admitted. Where would these voters go? They would shift to indecision, so no party would clearly benefit from the PSC's slight loss of support. The transfers detected are less than 4% and would go to Esquerra and Junts, and less to the PP and Vox.

In any case, Teruel emphasized that the Catalan government, led by Salvador Illa, maintains a good rating among Catalans, with an average score of 6.2. It receives approval among PSC, Esquerra, and Comuns voters, and also among the opposition, among Junts and PP voters. Only Alianza and the CUP fail it. In terms of leadership, 20% spontaneously say they prefer Isla as president; 9% Puigdemont; 6% Junqueras; and 4% Silvia Orriols. The far-right leader has a strong following among Aliança voters, which contrasts with Esquerra's support for Junqueras.

This CEO survey was conducted from May 30 to June 28, amid the outbreak of the Cerdán case crisis. Support for the Spanish government and Pedro Sánchez is eroding, although the effect, Teruel said, is smaller in Catalonia than in the rest of Spain. However, he also made it clear that the "main political effect of the Cerdán case is in the competition between the PP and Vox": according to the CEO director, the outbreak of the case of the former number three of the PSOE has generated more movements on the right, benefiting the extremists and detrimental to the PP.

In turn, Junts, which came in second place in the elections with 35 deputies, is expected to maintain its downward trend, but without falling in positions compared to the last CEO. In fact, compared to the first wave this year, voting intentions are expected to rise slightly. Carles Puigdemont's party would remain the second-largest party in the Parliament with between 28 and 30 seats. Esquerra (Republican Left) would remain at between 21 and 23 seats (it currently has 20), slightly improving compared to the elections, and would therefore remain the third-largest party in the chamber.

Where are Vox and Alianza growing?

The growth of the far right is at the expense of Junts, in the case of Aliança, and to the detriment of the PP, in the case of Vox. However, with a different pattern.

Ignacio Garriga's party is growing stronger where the PP is weak in Catalonia. By age group and voting intention, among those under 50, Vox is now the third-largest party in Catalonia behind the PSC and Esquerra, and among those under 25, the Spanish far right is almost tied with the PSC and Esquerra. This means that Vox is replacing the PP in places where the PP is weak, according to data cited by Teruel during the appearance.

In contrast, the growth pattern of Aliança is different: it increases where Junts is consolidated. On this point, according to Teruel, the Junts members retain their support better among voters who consider themselves center-left than those who consider themselves right-wing, who tend to view Sílvia Orriols's party more favorably. In other words, the CEO director has pointed out that Junts voters who consider themselves center-right are more likely to switch their votes than those on the center-left. In his opinion, this has to do with the fact that Junts has emphasized left-wing policies more than right-wing ones since its inception, unlike CiU. A trend that, in fact, is changing recently: Junts has incorporated a more ideological profile into its discourse with proposals on security, immigration, and lower taxes.

What the CEO doesn't detect is a direct transfer of votes between Esquerra and Aliança, which is why the Republicans are holding onto their twenty-odd seats. "This doesn't mean there isn't a way forward in the future," the director of the organization warned, however, noting that a considerable percentage of Esquerra voters positively value Sílvia Orriols's leadership. "There may be transfers in the future, but we don't see them now."

Transfers between the far right

One of the CEO's new developments is also the potential for voter trafficking between Aliança Catalana and Vox depending on the elections. This is the case in the Spanish elections, where Alianza is not expected to run initially. Silvia Orriols's party attracts non-independence voters, so these voters are likely to vote for Santiago Abascal's party in the Congress of Deputies elections. According to the data, 17% of its voters declare themselves against independence—in the case of Junts and the CUP, it is 9%, and in the case of ERC, it is 22%.

Regarding the Congress of Deputies elections, support would remain the same for the PSC, which would hold between 18 and 19 seats (it obtained 19 in 2023); the Left between 7 and 8 (it currently has 7); and Junts between 6 and 7 (it had 7 in 2023). There would be changes in Sumar's support, which would go from the 7 seats obtained by the Commons to 3 or 4; while Vox would rise from 2 to between 4 and 5 seats, and the PP would remain between 5 and 6 (it had 6 in Catalonia in 2023). Podemos, which in the previous elections ran with Sumar, could obtain a deputy for Catalonia. However, the preferred Spanish president in Catalonia remains Sánchez (27%) compared to Feijóo (4%) and Abascal (5%).

And, in general terms, what is the room for growth for far-right parties? The CEO provides a relevant statistic: one in four respondents has a "high tolerance" for far-right parties. What's more, 43% think the media and other politicians portray far-right parties in a "distorted" way; and 24% don't believe these groups threaten basic consensus. So much so that 19% say they might consider voting for the far right due to disillusionment with traditional parties, a trend that is increasing among younger voters.