Ten years since Iglesias and Rivera broke the two-party system

MadridIt has become commonplace to see the Spanish government lose votes or need to reach agreements with multiple political parties. But it was ten years ago that the PP and the PSOE began to face this dilemma. The elections of December 20, 2015, led to unprecedented fragmentation in the Congress of Deputies and ended the historic two-party system: the PP lost 83 seats, while Podemos and Ciudadanos—from Catalonia—entered the lower house with 69 and 40 deputies, respectively. Despite their obvious political differences, on election night both parties offered the same diagnosis: Pablo Iglesias, the leader of Podemos, proclaimed that a "new Spain" had been "born," and Albert Rivera, the most visible figure of Ciudadanos, celebrated the beginning of a "new political era of hope and optimism." Neither project has that strength today—Ciudadanos has even disappeared—but the two-party system has not been restored. Now Vox and Sumar have taken up the mantle to consolidate a system with four national parties coexisting with the string of regional parties that are also key to governance.

The parliamentary division that has accompanied this new stage has generated greater instability in Congress, increasing difficulty in reaching agreements, and a proliferation of multilateral alliances. One of the most tangible consequences has been the obstacles to passing budgets: before 2015, Spain had only gone without a budget once, in 1996. Since Pedro Sánchez came to power, he has only approved three of the eight budgets. So far, this legislature it has been impossible for him –We need to reach an agreement with Sumar and five other parties.

The other consequence of the paradigm shift of December 20th became evident a few months later: the repeat elections. On that occasion, the natural partners –PP and Cs or PSOE and Podemos– did not reach the necessary majority, and Sánchez had not yet taken the step of making a pact with the Catalan independence movement. This deadlock led to the June 26th, 2016 elections and could have triggered a third election had it not been for the PSOE's abstention –following Sánchez's ouster– to keep Mariano Rajoy in La Moncloa. In 2019, the sequence of repeat elections was repeated. And in 2023, the devilish arithmetic would have led to the polls again without Sánchez's concessions to secure the support of the entire independence movement.

The space to the left of the PSOE

The big breakthrough in the December 20th elections was led by Podemos and its alliances: the party, headed by Pablo Iglesias, allied itself with other regional parties—the Comuns in Catalonia, Compromís in the Valencian Community, and En Marea in Galicia—gaining 5.2 million votes and reaching 9 million seats. It was the third largest party nationwide and won the elections in Catalonia. The major qualitative leap came four years later with the famous embrace between Sánchez and Iglesias that led to the first coalition government in the democratic era. With Iglesias out of the picture, two years ago, it fell to Yolanda Díaz to rebrand the political space, creating Sumar. Throughout this time, the presence of Unides Podem and Sumar at the cabinet table has led to the emergence of dissenting internal voices: for example, regarding the Western Sahara, on NATO and the military spending and on housing policies.

Two deals in six months

The other protagonist of the new cycle was Ciutadans, which won 3.5 million votes and 40 seats. Two months after the elections, Albert Rivera reached a covenant With Pedro Sánchez, a "reformist and progressive" government was proposed, but the PSOE and Ciudadanos did not have enough seats to form a government. Following the repeat elections, Ciudadanos agreed with Mariano Rajoy on a package of 150 measures to "improve Spain." This was also insufficient, but ultimately the abstention of the Socialists allowed the PP leader to be sworn in. In April 2019, Ciudadanos surged to 57 seats, enough to form a coalition government with the PSOE, but Rivera declined. With the new elections, they plummeted to 10 seats. And in 2023, they disappeared from the political scene.

The sovereignist perspective

In Catalonia, the December 20th elections also marked a turning point. It was the first time in history that ERC surpassed Convergència's political space. The Republicans, led by the relatively unknown Gabriel Rufián, garnered 35,000 more votes than Democràcia i Llibertat, Convergència's brand. led by Francesc HomsThe four general elections held since 2015 have all had the same outcome. In fact, ERC surpassed one million votes in April 2019 with Oriol Junqueras as its candidate—amid the trial of the Catalan independence leaders and with the former Catalan vice president in prison. And in those elections and in the November repeat, it was the most voted party in Catalonia. On June 23, Rufián obtained 70,000 more votes than Nogueras.

The 2015 elections also saw the disappearance of the Democratic Union from Congress: running independently after breaking with Convergència, Josep Antoni Duran i Lleida only managed to secure 65,000 votes. Previously, they had also failed to win any seats in Parliament.

The protection of the 1978 regime

Despite the breakdown of the two-party system, the PP and the PSOE have continued to reach an understanding—or at least have continued to work together—on matters of state and those affecting the very foundations of the political system. In June 2024, after five and a half years of disagreements and recriminations, the Popular Party and the Socialists They agreed to the pending renewal. of the General Council of the Judiciary. Sumar was included in the list of members, but abstained on the accompanying reform of the Law of the Judiciary. Some of Sánchez's investiture partners criticized the Spanish president for abandoning a profound reform of the Spanish justice system.

The PP and PSOE also joined forces to prevent the reform of article 49 of the Constitution (the substitution of the term diminished by people with disabilities) was the prelude to any other, more ambitious reform of the constitution. Instead, the marriage of convenience broke down when it came to renew the RTVE leadershipThe PSOE chose to modify the majorities needed to pass it, marginalizing the PP and with the approval of the investiture partners.