PSOE increases advantage over a PP worn down by Vox, according to CIS poll

The far-right obtains 15% of the estimated vote and is less than three points behind the PP

2 min
CIS March 2021

BarcelonaVox is close on the heels of the PP. The March barometer of the Center for Sociological Research (CIS) places Santiago Abascal's far right with 15% of the estimated vote, 1.4 points more than a month ago and only 2.9 behind the PP, which continues to subside and stands at 17.9% -9 tenths below the February poll. The decline of Pablo Casado's party allows the PSOE to increase its distance at the head of the polls, from 30.7% to 31.3%. The survey, which does not capture the consequences of this weeks events -failed motion of censure in Murcia, snap elections in Madrid and Pablo Iglesias leaving the government- also shows Unidas Podemos receding from 11.2% to 9.6% and a certain resistance for Ciudadanos, which goes from 9.3% in February to 9.5%.

The frenetic spiral into which Spanish politics has entered in the last week forces us to be extremely cautious in the face of data that, nevertheless, consolidates the far right's growth. Abascal's party is already comfortably installed in third position and increasingly closer to a PP that continues to bleed to death. Last January the CIS poll gave the PP 20.5% in vote estimation and a difference of 7.5 points with Vox; two months later this difference has been cut to only 2.9 points. The great beneficiary of the survey - made from 3,820 interviews between 1 and 11 March - is the PSOE, which would obtain 31.1% of votes and increases its advantage over the PP to 13.2 points.

Where the poll shows less variation is in the pro-independence vote. ERC, JxCat and CUP move in very similar parameters to those of previous CIS surveys, with ERC at 3.2% (3.5% in February), Junts at 1.5% (1.3% a month ago) and CUP at 0.8, a tenth below the previous publication of the CIS.

As for the assessment of leaders, leaders of all the main parties of the state fail. The Spanish president, Pedro Sánchez, continues to be the best valued with a 4.3/10, followed by the leader of Ciudadanos, Inés Arrimadas, with a 3.7, and Pablo Casado with a 3.4. Below, Pablo Iglesias gets a 2.9 and Santiago Abascal a 2.6.