Sánchez suffers and Feijóo does not take off
MadridThese days, when I feel like provoking people by saying that the next general elections – whether this year or next – are not definitively decided, I encounter reactions of disbelief and even severe criticism around me. If in the group exchanging opinions there is someone from the right or liberal, the interruption is immediate, and they say things to me like “Have you lost your mind?”, “You’re completely lost”, or “It’s unbelievable you could think that.” On the other hand, if in the same group there is someone from the left – it doesn’t matter if radical, moderate, or in-between – what they first express is a lack of faith, but immediately accompanied by expressions of the type “Are you sure?”, “And what are you basing that belief on?”, or if the interlocutor is fond of irony, “Félix Tezanos must have told you that,” the director of the Sociological Research Centre (CIS), always accused of sweeping in favor of his own, the socialists. This difference between the respective reactions reveals that the right is very hopeful about regaining power, and sees it as practically done. It also reflects that the left lives with an accentuated feeling of anticipated defeat, but deep down wishing for an unexpected turn, an unlikely stroke of luck, or simply a miracle that will allow them to remain in power.
It should be noted that this type of conversation occurs when the described scene takes place in Madrid, especially with people from the city’s core, within the M-30 ring road, which is usually a powder keg. In the capital, therefore, the idea that the game has already been played and has a predictable loser, Pedro Sánchez, predominates. The discrepancy is usually that some see it as done and others, inevitable. The former – normally followers of Aznar and Ayuso – due to overflowing optimism, and the latter – now disappointed by Zapatero – because they would like to prevent it and don’t know how. But if you scratch a little deeper, you soon realize that they have not surrendered.
On the other hand, in wealthy Madrid, Feijóo generates doubts. They would want him to be more assertive, a better leader, more capable of outlining a more inspiring scenario. To win an election, the progressive wearing down of the adversary is not always enough. Expectations of a better future must also be created. The right itself, enthusiastic about the summaries that are devastating the socialist territory, thinks that the PP must manage to mobilize the vote of those who want concrete answers to their economic problems, housing, low wages, job insecurity, or the need for help for dependent people. The PSOE may have an abstentionism problem with its electorate in the next elections. But the PP may also struggle to secure the vote of moderate electors fed up with the corruption cases detected in the socialist ranks, and who, despite this, do not see solutions in the Popular Party's pacts with Vox. The open judicial cases against the PSOE are a heavy ball that this party carries tied to its ankle, but the PP also carries a very big one. The difference is that the punishment is always more decisive for the one in government than for the one who was there a long time ago but now leads the opposition.
The drama for the country consists of the fact that some are affected by a list of defendants that continues to grow almost every day, while others do not manage to take off, and they retain their power spaces by assuming what they have so criticized, that is, by closing pacts that they had described as impossible. The clearest case is the latest, that of Andalusia, where the president, Juan Manuel Moreno Bonilla, has ended up accepting Abascal's impositions. The re-elected head of the regional government rejected the presence of Vox in his executive, but now he has appointed a vice president from the ultra party, in a position that groups together the competences of departments such as Tourism, Justice, Local Administration, and Deregulation – the latter is a box of unknown dimensions.
A very serious problem
For Sánchez, the ongoing judicial cases are a very serious problem. Above all, those affecting instances of the administration, starting with the pending trials of Ábalos, Cerdán, and Koldo. The first two held positions of great political importance, such as the Ministry of Public Works and the organization secretary of the PSOE. Ábalos, in fact, held them simultaneously. And there is also the entire Plus Ultra case, in which Zapatero is implicated. In this matter, great attention must be paid to the statement that Julio Martínez, an entrepreneur implicated in the same case for alleged influence peddling and criminal organization, among other crimes, must give to the National Court on the 21st. The expectation regarding this statement is high, given the precedent of the treatment obtained by businessman Víctor de Aldama for collaborating with justice in the so-called "face mask case".
In parallel, for Feijóo, defining the best strategy to reach Moncloa is also a complicated exercise, as the numbers do not add up for him to present a motion of no confidence, nor does he have enough audacity to run the risk of going ahead and formalizing it. The leader of the PP already defended his candidacy in an investiture debate in 2023, knowing that it could not prosper. Now he could try to establish himself as an alternative to a government that already has so many high-ranking officials implicated, including the Director-General of the Civil Guard, Mercedes González, and the president of the State Industrial Holdings Company (SEPI), Belén Gualda.
In the first case, it is being investigated to what extent the PSOE's plumber, Leire Díez, influenced to prevent or hinder actions by the Central Operative Unit (UCO) in relation to open cases against socialist leaders. In the second matter, Judge Santiago Pedraz has implicated, at the request of the Anti-Corruption Prosecutor's Office, a total of 25 people for the alleged crimes of influence peddling, embezzlement, prevarication, criminal organization or group, and insider trading for profit. A whole range of conduct – certainly, for now in indicative terms – that is the complete opposite of the integrity in the exercise of the powers assigned to public institutions and companies. Meanwhile, the PP is dedicated to sowing doubts about the guarantees of the next electoral event. Is this the strategy of a winner?