Sánchez seeks respite, cornered by the Ábalos case and his weakness in Congress

MadridPedro Sánchez has seen two former PSOE organizational secretaries imprisoned in less than six months: Santos Cerdán, who has already been released, and José Luis Ábalos, also a former Minister of Transport, who was imprisoned this Thursday for alleged irregularities in the purchase of face masks during the pandemic. He has also seen the blog that investigated him for the Spanish presidency in 2023 weaken by the minute, to the point that it no longer exists, or at least, according to Junts, which has decided to break with the Socialists. "The seams of the State are being stretched and even torn apart," reflected Aitor Esteban this Friday afternoon, who, since becoming president of the PNV, observes everything that happens in Madrid from afar. Nevertheless, Sánchez is seeking a respite to fulfill the commitment he has repeated week after week: to serve out his full term. That the scenario is, at the very least, delicate is undeniable. "The image is painful [...] it's very unpleasant," admitted the Minister of Social Security, Elma Saiz (PSOE). This Friday, in reference to the imprisonment of ÁbalosFrom Moncloa Palace, it is acknowledged that it has not been an easy week, although they do not consider it to be on the same level as the week Cerdán entered prison. "That was a much more complicated time," government sources assert. Regarding the balance of power in Congress, things are further complicated because with the absence of the former minister, when he is suspended as a deputy –The board will not be able to make the decisionUntil the high court resolves the former minister's final appeal, Junts' abstention will not be enough for the Spanish government to secure a majority.

Amidst all this, there are several avenues that are serving Pedro Sánchez, but also the PSOE, to try to find some breathing room. To begin with, those at Moncloa are clinging, as they usually do, to economic policies to boast about government management and stability. They cite as an example the agreement with the unions to raise public sector salaries by 11% until 2028. and that Sánchez himself wanted to confirm on Thursdayor the revaluation of pensions by 2.7% in 2026. Both will have to be voted on in Congress before the end of the year.

Furthermore, the Spanish government and party maintain that the alleged corruption case involving Cerdán and Ábalos, as well as the latter's former advisor, Koldo García – also imprisoned since Thursday – is not comparable to past cases that have tarnished the PP, nor to how the Gél case has tarnished the PP. Neither in the Gürtel case – thejudgmentThe first stage of the scheme (1999-2005) condemned the PP as responsible for profiting from the scheme—because it has not been proven, so far, that the PSOE was illegally financed. Nor has the Cristóbal Montoro case, investigated by a court in Tarragona. "We don't all behave the same way in a corruption case. Some look the other way. Some smash computers with hammers. Some remain silent in the face of the biggest corruption case in our country's history, the Montoro case," Saiz stated, referring to the Popular Party. In fact, the Moncloa Palace has always defended itself when the investigation into the Koldo case, also known as the Ábalos case, ended up placing Santos Cerdán in the spotlight. Sánchez went on the attack without hesitation: he defended the PSOE's integrity, dismissed Cerdán from his position as number three, and announced a commission.

"It would be the final blow," opined a source close to the Spanish president, referring to whether illegal financing of the PSOE is proven. As long as this doesn't happen and everything remains just "a few bad apples," despite the impact in terms of political responsibility, the scenario of an early election fades away. "The case centers on three people," insist government sources, who reaffirm their "determination" to serve out the full term. That is to say, there would be no elections until 2027.

"Unless [Sánchez] sees that he has options and that the results could go well for him," notes the same source. In fact, in the heart of the Spanish capital, there are also those who predict that the legislature will not last beyond 2026, especially considering the regional election calendar, starting with Extremadura on December 21, and in which the polls are not favorable for the Socialists.

Fear of what Ábalos might say?

But what if Ábalos "spills the beans"? What does the PP expect? Even before going to prison, the former minister took shots at the Moncloa Palace. And his latest attack came once he was inside, focusing on Begoña Gómez, Pedro Sánchez's wife, and her role in the Air Europa bailout—Judge Juan Carlos Peinado is still investigating the case, even though the Madrid Provincial Court reduced the scope of the investigation. "It's like poking Sánchez in the eye, but it's like a swimming pool without water," a source at ARA maintains.

A lack of water that is also shared by the Spanish government, which, in order to contain the impact of the former minister's revelations, does not hesitate to show forcefulness and dispel any sense of fear: "They think that implicating other people can bring them benefits [...] but this party, this government, will never be blackmailed by anyone," said First Vice President and Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, this Friday in statements to the media.

Gasoline for the PP

Beyond encouraging the former Minister of Transport to speak out, the Popular Party has taken advantage of José Luis Ábalos's pretrial detention to call for a new "open and civic" demonstration in Madrid this Sunday, urging protesters to demonstrate "against the corrupt and all those who support them." Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party has long been exploiting the legal cases that are cornering the PSOE and Pedro Sánchez. However, those at Moncloa Palace maintain that their strategy will be to avoid what they consider "the mudslinging machine." In this context, the Popular Party is also pressuring the parties that enabled Sánchez's investiture, the PNV and Junts, to support a motion of no confidence, for which, at the moment, they lack the necessary votes—currently, the PP would only have the support of Vox. This very Friday, Feijóo has called for the involvement of Fomento del Trabajo"I'm missing your votes," he told them, referring to Carles Puigdemont's supporters. But with Vox involved—beyond the motion, the PP needs them to govern in places like the Valencian Community, but also in Extremadura, according to the latest CIS poll—this is a scenario that business sources consulted by ARA consider "impossible." Meanwhile, the big question surrounding the outcome of all this is what effect Carles Puigdemont's possible return to Catalonia might have. For now, Moncloa is doing everything possible to prevent the deadlock with the Catalan separatists from worsening. This is being done not only through the tone used by ministers in Congress, avoiding direct attacks, but also by trying to make progress on agreements: while the multiple-offenses charge is being processed in the Spanish lower house, the Foreign Minister again defended the official status of Catalan this Friday.