Sánchez seeks to catch his breath, cornered by the Ábalos case and his weakness in Congress

MadridPedro Sánchez has seen two former PSOE organizational secretaries imprisoned in less than six months: Santos Cerdán, who has already been released, and José Luis Ábalos, also a former Minister of Transport, who was imprisoned this Thursday for alleged irregularities in the purchase of face masks during the pandemic. He has also seen the blog that investigated him for the Spanish presidency in 2023 weaken by the minute, to the point that it no longer exists, or at least, according to Junts, which has decided to break with the Socialists. "The seams of the State are being stretched and even torn apart," reflected Aitor Esteban this Friday afternoon, who, since becoming president of the PNV, observes everything that happens in Madrid from afar. However, Sánchez is seeking to regroup to fulfill the commitment he has repeated week after week: to serve out his full term. That the situation is, at the very least, delicate is undeniable. "The image is painful [...], it's very unpleasant," admitted the Minister of Inclusion, Social Security and Migration, Elma Saiz (PSOE), This Friday, in reference to the imprisonment of ÁbalosFrom Moncloa Palace, it is acknowledged that it has not been an easy week, although they do not consider it to be on the same level as the week Cerdán entered prison. "That was a much more complicated time," government sources assert. Regarding the balance of power in Congress, things are further complicated because with the absence of the former minister, when he is suspended as a deputy –The board will not be able to make the decisionUntil the high court resolves the former minister's final appeal, Junts' abstention will not be enough for the Spanish government to secure a majority.

Amidst all this, there are several avenues that Pedro Sánchez, and the PSOE, can exploit to try and gain some breathing room. Firstly, from La Moncloa, they cling, as they have habitually done, to economic policies to boast of government management and stability. They cite as an example the agreement with the unions to raise public sector salaries by 11% until 2028. and that Sánchez himself wanted to confirm on Thursdayand the revaluation of pensions by 2.7% in 2026. Both will have to be voted on in Congress before the end of the year.

Furthermore, the Spanish government and party maintain that the alleged corruption case involving Cerdán and Ábalos, as well as the latter's former advisor, Koldo García – also imprisoned since this Thursday – is not comparable to the cases that have previously affected the PP, neither as G. Nor in the Gürtel case – thejudgmentThe first stage of the scheme (1999-2005) condemned the PP as the beneficiary of the illicit activities—because it has not been proven, so far, that the PSOE was illegally financed. Nor has the Cristóbal Montoro case, under investigation by a court in Tarragona. "We don't all behave the same way in a corruption case. Some look the other way. Some destroy computers with hammers. Some remain silent in the face of the biggest corruption case in our country's history, the Montoro case," Saiz stated, referring to the Popular Party. In fact, the Moncloa Palace has always maintained that when the investigation into the Koldo case, also known as the Ábalos case, ended up placing Santos Cerdán in the spotlight, Sánchez went on the offensive without hesitation: he defended the PSOE's integrity, dismissed Cerdán from his position as number three, and announced a commission.

"It would be the final blow," opined a source close to the Spanish president, referring to whether illegal financing of the PSOE is proven. As long as this doesn't happen and everything remains just "a few bad apples," despite the impact on political responsibility, the prospect of early elections fades. "The case centers on three people," insist government sources, who reaffirm their "determination" to serve out the full term. That is to say, there would be no elections until 2027.

"Unless [Sánchez] sees that he has options and that the results could go well for him," notes the same source. In fact, in the heart of the Spanish capital, there are also those who predict that the legislature will not last beyond 2026, especially considering the regional election calendar, starting with Extremadura on December 21, and in which the polls are not favorable to the Socialists.

Fear of what Ábalos might say?

But what if Ábalos "spills the beans"? What does the PP (People's Party) expect? Even before entering prison, the former minister took shots at the Moncloa Palace (the Prime Minister's residence). And the latest attack came once he was inside, targeting Begoña Gómez, Pedro Sánchez's wife, and her role in the Air Europa bailout—Judge Juan Carlos Peinado continues to investigate the case, despite the Madrid Provincial Court's reduction of the scope of the investigation. "It's like poking Sánchez in the eye, but it's like a swimming pool without water," a source at ARA (a newspaper) maintains. This lack of water is also shared by the Spanish government, which, in order to contain the impact of the former minister's revelations, is not hesitant to show firmness and dispel any sense of fear: "They think that implicating other people might bring them benefits [...], but this party, this government, will never allow itself to be dragged through the mud," asserted First Vice President and Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, this Friday in statements to the media.

Gasoline for the PP

Beyond encouraging the former Minister of Transport to speak out, the Popular Party (PP) seized upon José Luis Ábalos's pretrial detention to call for a new "open and civic" demonstration in Madrid on Sunday, urging protesters to demonstrate "against the corrupt and all those who support them." Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party has long been exploiting the legal cases that are cornering the Socialist Party (PSOE) and Pedro Sánchez. However, those at La Moncloa (the Prime Minister's residence) maintain that their strategy will be to avoid what they consider "the mudslinging machine." In this context, the PP is also pressuring the parties that enabled Sánchez's investiture, the Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) and Together for Catalonia (Junts), to support a motion of no confidence, for which, at the moment, they lack the necessary votes—currently, the PP would only have the support of Vox. This very Friday, Feijóo has called for the involvement of Fomento del Trabajo"I'm missing your votes," he told them, referring to Carles Puigdemont's supporters. But with Vox involved—beyond the motion, the PP needs them to govern in places like the Valencian Community, but also in Extremadura, according to the latest CIS poll—this is a scenario that business sources consulted by ARA consider "impossible." Meanwhile, the big question surrounding the outcome of all this is what effect Carles Puigdemont's possible return to Catalonia might have. For now, Moncloa is doing everything possible to prevent the deadlock with the Catalan separatists from worsening. This is being done not only through the tone used by ministers in Congress, where direct attacks are avoided, but also by trying to make progress on agreements: while the multiple-offenses case is being processed in the Spanish lower house, the Foreign Minister again defended the official status of Catalan this Friday.