The partners embrace the Turull doctrine
BarcelonaPedro Sánchez is reaching the midpoint of his term at the worst possible moment, besieged by corruption cases and without having approved a budget, and with an opposition that is soaring in the polls. In this situation, if only one of the groups that voted for his investiture were to call for elections or a vote of confidence, the term would be over. But no one has done so. Not even Junts, which had already used the bogeyman of the vote of confidence to pressure the government in the past. On the contrary, the partners seem to have embraced what we might call the "Turull doctrine," that is, trying to take advantage of Sánchez's weakness, as the Junts secretary general explained, to secure compliance with the commitments of the term. In other words, the message to Sánchez is: either accelerate or fold.
In response to Gabriel Rufián, Sánchez hinted that he was opting for the first option, that of a "social shift." In reality, the Spanish president has little alternative but to propose a new, bolder political agenda if he wants, on the one hand, to change the public conversation and, on the other, to gain parliamentary support. This was most vividly explained by Més MP for Mallorca, Vicenç Vidal, when he began shouting "BOE, BOE, BOE!" The most difficult party to win over right now is Podemos, but for the moment, Iglesias's party doesn't dare take the step of aligning itself with the right to call for elections. Therefore, the PSOE will have to go law by law to try to survive as long as possible. Currently, the budget, which would allow it to complete its term, seems like a pipe dream. But if we admit that today's debate is the closest thing we'll ever see to a vote of no confidence, Sánchez has outdone it.
From there, the debate offers other interesting insights. Yolanda Díaz delivered Sumar's best day in two years with a speech against the evils of the two-party system, but with a greater emphasis on the right. At the other extreme, Santiago Abascal did the same. He attacked the two-party system, but especially the left. Both believe the scandal is an opportunity to weaken the two major parties and consolidate their respective positions.
ERC-Juntos Pulse
Regarding the standoff between ERC and Junts, the opposition between Gabriel Rufián and Míriam Nogueras draws two parallel universes with few points of contact between them. On the one hand, Rufián, following the example of Bildu, has placed ERC in the sphere of Sanchismo, out of pragmatism, like the Basques, but also out of an ideological conviction that a PP-Vox government would be disastrous for Catalonia. In contrast, Nogueras maintains the classic equidistance of Convergència, criticizing both the Spanish nationalism of the right and the interventionism of the left. The upcoming Spanish elections will also have to resolve the tie between these two models of the independence movement's relationship with Spain.
Finally, the most surreal aspect of the session, apart from Feijóo's accusations against Sánchez about brothels (the Galician's difficulty finding the right tone is chronic: he always ends up going too far), is the PP's bitter attack on the PNV, which contrasts, as Rufián pointed out. It's hard to understand Feijóo's efforts at his party's congress to get a free hand to make a pact and, immediately afterward, to burn all bridges with a party to which he even offered a ministry during the 2023 investiture negotiations.