Sánchez benefits from not having the budget to approve the defense plan
The Spanish president could not now push through Congress accounts that would reflect the increase in spending.
MadridPedro Sánchez has chosen not to formally announce that he will not present the 2025 budget, although as of April 23, it's obvious that there's practically no point in presenting a draft when the stability path hasn't even been approved. "The government is committed to presenting the budget. A 2% commitment, we have to do it as soon as possible," the Spanish president said in his appearance on Tuesday. Letting the days pass is a way of confirming that he will not present this year's accounts, but he avoids an announcement that would be detrimental to him because it would show that he doesn't have the support in Congress. A window of opportunity to move forward. defense and security investment plan announced this Tuesday without going through the lower chamber. If accompanied by new accounts, it would hardly find the necessary support to approve figures that would put the increase in military spending in black and white. The Spanish government has opted for budgetary engineering to finance an investment plan that still cannot count on new money from Europe.
The plan published this Wednesday details how the additional 10.471 billion will be achieved: a significant portion, 2.819 billion, comes from having reduced the public deficit compared to the forecast and from having given less money to the autonomous communities through the FLA. Another significant figure, 1.745 billion, consists of items from the 2023 budget executed in previous years that are no longer necessary. Also notable are 1.681 billion from repayments of loans granted by the Ministry of Industry in previous years and 1.395 billion from the contingency fund. As Sánchez explained on Tuesday, a significant amount comes from redirecting European funds (1.357 billion) to cybersecurity. Sánchez can implement all of this without needing more funding, something that doesn't require the approval of Congress.
And looking ahead to 2026?
From now on, the €33 billion in security and defense spending that would allow for the 2% of GDP target will have to be spent annually if the commitment made to NATO is to be fulfilled. However, these maneuvers may not be enough by 2026, as acknowledged by sources from the Ministry of Human Rights. One hypothesis is that GDP will grow, and therefore, reaching the 2% target will require more resources. However, María Jesús Montero is confident that she will succeed in passing a new budget for 2026.
Postponing the vote on a new budget, which will inevitably be linked to increased defense spending, allows Sánchez a few months to convince his allies. The head of the Spanish government has highlighted the jobs that these new investments will generate—an estimated 96,000—and assured that 87% of the €10.471 billion will go to Spanish companies. The accounts that the Treasury may present at the end of the year will be closely scrutinized: the 33 billion euros will appear in different sections of the Ministries of Defense, Industry, Interior, and Digital Transformation, but progressive forces will scrutinize whether or not the social policy portfolios see their amounts reduced. However, Sánchez will not have it easy. relationship with Sumar has become even more strained in recent hours over the purchase of ammunition from an Israeli company. Furthermore, Podemos, which has strongly opposed the militaristic spiral, can be assumed to reject it.
