Moncloa rules out an abstention by the PSOE so that Extremadura does not depend on Vox

MadridPedro Sánchez ends the year with an electoral defeat in Extremadura and without resolving his differences with Sumar, the junior partner in the Spanish government, although this Tuesday he was able to boast about his social agenda with the approval of several measures in the last cabinet meeting of 2025. The PSOE's abstention in the investiture of María Guardiola (PP) will allow her to govern without the far-right Vox party, unlike what former Extremadura president Juan Carlos Rodríguez Ibarra proposed in recent hours. Guardiola, who has not ruled out a pact with Vox, has praised Ibarra's position as "sensible," especially since her ambition is to govern alone, without depending on anyone—in fact, that is why she called early elections. Meanwhile, the PP headquarters in Madrid is avoiding comment. Sources at Moncloa Palace, however, completely downplay this scenario and assure that the door "is closed," although the newly appointed spokesperson for the Spanish government, Elma Saiz, appealed this Tuesday to "the responsibility of all political forces" to keep Vox out of the institutions. "The PP wanted to get rid of Vox and has managed to become more tied to them than ever," Saiz remarked. In the opinion of the Spanish government, the issue transcends Vox because the PP already represents its agenda, and they exemplify this with the attitude of the mayor of Badalona, ​​Xavier García Albiol, who has evicted hundreds of people who lived in the former B9 Institute. In fact, Pedro Sánchez has long followed the strategy of lumping the two parties together, as seen in the Valencian case and with climate change denial.

From Moncloa Palace, they want to avoid placing the blame for this scenario (Vox's entry into the institutions) on the left, and instead focus attention on the PP, and in particular on the acting president of Extremadura, María Guardiola, who decided to call early elections. As Sánchez argued during his year-end review, government sources believe that the best way to act as a bulwark against the right and far right is to continue with the current legislature and the agenda of the PSOE-Sumar coalition government. According to these sources, citizens will recognize this in the upcoming general elections, in which, in their view, the alignment between Alberto Núñez Feijóo's party and Santiago Abascal's will be evident. This approach largely draws on what happened in the 2023 general elections. However, if this scenario is not accelerated, it would not materialize until 2027, after several regional elections. The results in Extremadura are just a prelude to what could happen in other regions, starting with Aragon on February 8th, which would further deepen the socialists' territorial decline at the national level.

Social Agenda

This Tuesday, with the aftermath of the Extremadura elections still fresh, the Spanish government had the opportunity to outline a series of social and economic measures. In the final cabinet meeting of the year, Pedro Sánchez's administration approved measures that were set to expire on December 31st, but which it intends to maintain, either because they are part of an agreement with a political party or because it has made a commitment to the public. This includes subsidies for public transportation and the social safety net, with measures such as the prohibition of certain evictions and the suspension of basic water, electricity, and gas service cutoffs for some families. In addition, among other things, the government has announced the revaluation of pensions in 2026 and the freezing of social security contributions for the self-employed.

This is a package of measures that Sumar, the party led by Yolanda Díaz, views positively, but it does not resolve their demand for an "ambitious" social agenda that would give wings to the legislature and help it weather the current crisis. In this regard, an automatic extension of rental contracts expiring in 2026 has been left out for now. "In a coalition, consensus is sometimes reached and sometimes not, but the important thing is that the objective is shared," Saiz argued at a press conference.

All of this will reach Congress within a month, and it will have to be ratified. The Spanish government is convinced that there will be no obstacles, but the always fragile relationship between Sánchez and the parties that brought him to power is compounded by the low point marked by the cases of alleged corruption and sexual and workplace harassment that are plaguing the Spanish president's inner circle. Although the coalition partners haven't broken up—except for Junts, with whom the PSOE is unsuccessfully trying to rebuild relations—they are increasing their pressure every day. In this context, Podemos, for example, is rapidly distancing itself. And although with EH Bildu There has been an agreement to extend the social safety net.The Basque Nationalist Party (PNV) has already amended it, demanding some changes. Despite the fact that last year the Spanish government learned its lesson when it presented all the measures in a 140-page omnibus decree in Congress – neither Juntos por el Cambio, nor the People's Party (PP), nor Vox hesitated to vote against it and derail measures such as the increase in pensions – it has repeated the practice of voting on two texts for the pension increase: one with the measures related to public transport and another with the rest of the socioeconomic issues mixed together.