Puigdemont and Junqueras force Sánchez to forget about the budget

MadridThe last time the Congress of Deputies rejected a draft state budget was on February 13, 2019. Faced with votes against from parties such as PDECat and ERC, among others, Pedro Sánchez called early elections. According to sources from Moncloa consulted by ARA, this will not happen again this year. The Spanish president has no intention of approving a budget if he does not have his support guaranteed. He has made this decision taking into account that Junts, ERC and Podemos are currently very far from providing oxygen to the PSOE and Sumar government to last the entire legislature.

The Spanish government believes that it only needs a budget to last until 2027. The 2024 budget was impossible considering that Sánchez was sworn in in November 2023, and the 2027 budget will be very complicated, because just a few months before the general elections the parties will be in pre-camp mode. Therefore, those of 2025 or 2026 are the only viable ones and those that would allow Moncloa to demonstrate that it has some support in Congress. "We will not go kamikaze," say these sources, who acknowledge that at the moment the chances of approving those of 2025 are "minimal." Why? Firstly, because we are already in March and the whole process would not be completed until a few months from now: first the new path of stability must be approved, then the budgets in the Council of Ministers and, finally, they must go through the two chambers of the Spanish Parliament.

Beyond that, there is a political reason for the parliamentary allies: the longer ERC and Junts wait to give that air to the Spanish government, the longer they can be conditioning the political agenda. If, on the other hand, they gave their endorsement immediately, Sánchez would hardly need their political support, only their votes on specific laws. In Moncloa they are aware of this argument, although they maintain that it is their duty to try. The Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, stated at the beginning of the year that during the first quarter she would present the budget project and she has not yet said so. However, with each passing day it seems more unfeasible. However, the Spanish government considers that all the work to maintain good relations with Junts and ERC is not in vain; on the contrary, it is necessary to pave the way for the 2026 accounts. In addition, if this year's budget extension is confirmed and the executive wants to carry out credit extensions, they will have to go through Congress. The Republicans are willing to talk about it.

Debt and the question of confidence

There is a belief in Moncloa that last week was very positive for a future scenario of understanding. Debt forgiveness has begun its journey in compliance with the agreement with ERC for the investiture of Sánchez, the previous step for the advances in the singular financing. The Republicans have once again felt like protagonists in Madrid, where Junts boasts of being the only actor that really conditions the PSOE. However, the slogan of Carles Puigdemont's party, "Hold the position", has cracked with the Withdrawal of the initiative on the question of confidence. The reflection made in Moncloa is that Junts had a hard time explaining its approval by the hand of the PP and Vox: what would have been the consequence? Suspend negotiations? Puigdemont already did this with that appearance in Brussels in January and then resumed them when it agreed to the decree for the revaluation of pensions and free public transport.

Juntos found an argument to back down on the issue of confidence – the international mediator asked for it – and a counterpart: the ratification by the Council of Ministers of Protocol No. 16 of the European Convention on Human Rights, which enables the Spanish high courts to consult with the European Court of Human Rights (ECHR), is in doubt. What was presented as a novelty, in reality Spain had already signed it on October 29 in Strasbourg. Last Friday, in Congress, the Minister of the Presidency and Justice, Félix Bolaños, questioned by Junts, did not specify what the ratification of this protocol would translate into. Puigdemont's supporters want the Spanish government to make specific legal reforms so that judges are obliged to go to the ECHR in many cases, although this week it has been shown, with the approval of the ban on debating self-determination in the Parliament, that Strasbourg does not always smile on the independence movement.

Bolaños' double appearance on Thursday and Friday before the justice and constitutional committees provided evidence of the tensions and distance that, however, remains between the independence movement and the PSOE. Both Josep Pagès (Juntos) and Pilar Vallugera (ERC) demanded that Bolaños retract his statement that the Process "broke up coexistence" and "fractured families", but, far from rectifying, the minister boasted of "political normalisation" and that "it is the best thing that can happen to the unity of Spain". If there are no surprises, the imminent agreement for the transfer of immigration powers to the Generalitat will not make Junts agree to talk about the 2025 accounts – they insist that the previous ones must be fulfilled first – and ERC, which wants to escape the stigma of being a crutch of the PSOE. in exchange for nothing, has already decided that it will wait until 2026.