PSOE's strong rise neutralises growth of PP and Vox

MadridThe government's management of the Ukrainian crisis is boosting the PSOE and penalising Unidas Podemos, according to a CIS poll, while the PP and Vox are benefiting from Cs' demise. Thus, the PSOE has grown three percentage points in voting intentions and has reached 31.5%. Far behind is the PP, which, despite growing two and a half points after its internal crisis, remains at 23.8%. The gap between the two parties, however, widens to 7.7 points. In fact, the strong rise of the PSOE neutralises the growth of the right, since Vox also polled a point and a half higher, up from 14.8% to 16.3%. And how can these two increases be explained? Basically because of the decline suffered by Unidas Podemos, which drops from 13.6% to 11.8%, and also by Cs, which polling at only 3.2% is on the verge of disappearance. Since Cs burst into Spanish politics, this is its worst result. In January it already stood at 4%, but in February it rebounded to 4.8%. In this survey, however, it has sunk down to 3.2%, a figure that is almost a death sentence for the party.

The poll is especially worrying for Unidas Podemos, which sees how its future candidate Yolanda Díaz's popularity does not translate into good poll results, while the PSOE continues to gain ground on them, now on account of the Russian invasion of Ukraine. And the fact is that among Unidas Podemos voters the support for the position taken by the government is even higher than among PSOE voters. In the right-wing bloc, the news is neither good nor bad for the PP. While on the one hand Alberto Núñez Feijóo's new leadership is rewarded with a rise, the far right of Vox is also consolidated, bettering their November 2019 result, where it took 15% of the vote.

If we look at Catalan pro-independence parties, it is striking that the CUP, with 1.1% of the vote, is almost about to reach Junts, which loses three tenths and stands at 1.3%. On the other hand, ERC reinforces its leadership and goes from 2.5% to 2.7%. Even so, this figure is well below the 3.6% obtained by the party in 2019. Overall, the three parties would lose 1.7 points, and only the CUP would improve, albeit very slightly, its 2019 result.