PSC and ERC still neck and neck one year after elections

BarcelonaRepublican Left of Catalonia (ERC) and the Socialists' Party of Catalonia both obtained 33 seats in the last Catalan elections, on February 14, 2021 on a frenetic election night. One year later, the two parties are still neck and neck, making their candidates favourites if new elections to Parliament were held now. The Centre d'Estudis d'Opinió has published its first poll of 2022 this Thursday (the first since the end of 2020), placing the Socialists on an upward surge to between 34 and 39 seats, with between 23% and 29% of the vote share, slightly ahead of the Republicans, who would also rise to 33-38 seats with 20-25% of the vote. The survey blurs the option of a triple tie as the one that almost occurred a year ago and points to the decline of JxCat, which would fall from the current 32 seats to a range of between 23 and 28 (13-18% share of the vote).

Vox (9-12 seats) and CUP (8-11) would vie for fourth position in a battle that could also be joined by En Comú Podem (6-10) on the upper end of their prospects. The PP would be one of the parties that would benefit the most by a call for elections and would absorb a large part of the voters abandoning Ciutadans, growing from the current 3 seats to between 6 and 9. Ciutadans, in turn, risks losing all of its seats (0-4).