Politics 15/05/2021

Pro-independence movement would repeat its overall majority if there are elections, according to the first polls

According to the poll of 'La Vanguardia' PSC, ERC and JxCat would go up, while in the poll of 'El Periódico' Junts would fall to 25-27 seats

2 min
A man depositing a ballot in a ballot box.

BarcelonaGiven the disagreement of the pro-independence parties eleven days before the automatic call for new elections, the first polls are beginning to be published on a new appointment at the voting booths next July. This Saturday, both La Vanguardia and El Periódico published polls which, despite differing in the distribution of seats, agree that the pro-independence party would maintain its absolute majority, at least in terms of seats. In any case, the PSC candidate, Salvador Illa, would once again be in first place; Pere Aragonès, with Esquerra, would continue to be the candidate with the best chances of becoming president, and Junts per Catalunya would follow in third place.

Esquerra and JxCat would have absolute majority without the CUP, according to La Vanguardia

In the poll of La Vanguardia the first three parties of the parliamentary arc would increase support if there are new elections. The PSC, which currently has 33 seats and is the first force in votes, would be strung up to 36 MPs, while Esquerra, which now also draws 33, would go up two more, to 35. As for the party of Carles Puigdemont, although it now has 32, it would go up to 33, although it would remain behind the PSC and the Republicans. The CUP, on the other hand, would lose one.

In any case, with this result, the current partners in the government, who cannot agree on repeating the executive, would alone have an absolute majority, just 68 MPs. With the cupaires, to whom La Vanguardia leaves 8, they would reach 74 seats as now and would maintain around 50% of the votes. The comuns, in turn, would lose one and would be left with 7 seats.

As for constitutionalism, only the PSC would do well. Ciudadanos would sink to disappear from the Catalan chamber - as happened in the elections of the Community of Madrid on 4 May - and would collect the support of the PP. Alejandro Fernández's party would go from 3 to 8 seats in Parliament. The extreme right of Vox, on the other hand, would also lose 3 MPs and would have 8 (it now has 11 representatives).

Junts would fall to 25-27 seats, according to El Periódico

Although the poll of El Periódico coincides in giving the overall majority to the independentism, the correlation of forces in the parliamentary arc varies. The socialists and the republicans would benefit the most from the electoral repetition, since the former would increase from 33 to 37-38, and the latter, Esquerra, from the current 33 to 34-36. Junts, on the other hand, would fall to 25-27 MPs, between five and seven seats less than at present (there are 32 representatives). The rest of the political forces would remain more or less the same. The Populars would go up -not as much as in the poll by La Vanguardia - to 5-6 MPs compared to the current 3 and would surpass Ciudadanos, which would drop even more: from 6 MPs to 3-4 seats. Vox would maintain its 10-11 deputies and the comuns would also maintain 8-9 seats.

As for the prospects for forming a pro-independence government, Esquerra, JxCat and the CUP would have an absolute majority of between 68 and 73 MPs. As now, therefore, the two partners in the government would need the CUP to have stability. What the pro-independence movement would lose is the goal of having surpassed 50% of the votes, given that, according to El Periódico, they would account for 48.3% of the votes.