Plebiscite on Sanchismo

BarcelonaPedro Sánchez has called early elections which, in reality, are a referendum on his person and, especially, on what he represents and what we know as Sanchismo. Sanchismo is defined, first and foremost, by opposition. In a world dominated by a strong conservative, and even reactionary, impulse, Sánchez has managed to build his own profile that is almost countercultural: his congenital smile and optimism clash with the depression of the international left. The other great ingredient of Sanchismo is a specific way of doing politics, with a strong sense of power (something that makes the right especially nervous and has led him to confront the deep state), and a mixture of opportunism and a sense of opportunity, as he demonstrated back in the day with the amnesty and now with the housing decrees.

Sánchez has drawn the framework –either with him or against him– and the rest of the parties now have to follow in his wake. The big difference from 2023 is that it is no longer possible for Junts to be part of the Sanchista equation. The Junts supporters, whether they like it or not, have positioned themselves on the other side, whether out of ideological conviction or electoral tactical maneuvering. ERC and the Comuns are clearly part of the progressive/republican historical bloc, and therefore now Sanchista, which always returns in moments of the threat of regression, like in 1936. The unknown is whether Catalonia will respond as it has historically to defend itself from the threat of the right, by voting en masse for progressive options, or if things have already changed and there is a significant percentage of Catalans who currently prefer a PP and Vox government.

The big question is whether the outburst of anger over the failure of the housing decrees will be enough for a comeback that, as of now, no poll, except the CIS, predicts. It is very difficult, but in any case, Sánchez is playing for all or nothing. He knows that only significant enough support to place him close to or even above Alberto Núñez Feijóo will be able to save his image. Because it is no longer just a specific government that will be at stake on November 29th, but his political legacy. A Sánchez crushed at the polls will give way to a new PSOE of a Felipista style. On the other hand, a minimally reinforced Sánchez will be able to remain as leader of the opposition and, let's not rule it out, run again, depending on how things go, in the next elections.