Plebiscite on sanchism... looking to 2030

BarcelonaPedro Sánchez has called snap elections which, in reality, are a plebiscite on his person and, especially, on what he represents and what we know as Sanchismo. Sanchismo is defined, in the first place, by opposition. In a world dominated by a strong conservative, and even reactionary, impulse, Sánchez has known how to build a profile of his own that is almost countercultural: his congenital smile and optimism clash with the depression of the international left. The other great ingredient of Sanchismo is a specific way of doing politics, with a strong sense of power (something that makes the right especially nervous and has led him to confront the deep state), and a mixture of opportunism and a sense of opportunity, as he demonstrated back in the day with the amnesty and now with the housing decrees.

Sánchez has drawn the framework –either with him or against him– and the rest of the parties must now follow suit. The big difference with the year 2023 is that it is no longer possible for Junts to be part of the Sanchista equation. The Junts members, whether they want to or not, have placed themselves on the other side, be it out of ideological conviction or electoral tactical maneuvering. ERC and the Comuns are clearly part of the progressive/republican historical bloc, and therefore now Sanchista, which always returns in moments of threat of involution, like in 1936. The unknown is whether Catalonia will respond as it has historically to defend itself from the threat of the right, by voting en masse for progressive options, or if things have already changed and there is a significant percentage of Catalans who right now prefer a PP and Vox government.

The big question is whether the outburst of anger over the failure of the housing decrees will be enough for a comeback that, for now, no poll, except for the CIS, predicts. It is very difficult, but in any case, Sánchez is risking it all or nothing. He knows that only significant enough support that places him close to or even above Alberto Núñez Feijóo will be able to save his image. Because it is no longer just a certain government that will be at stake on November 29th, but his political legacy. A Sánchez crushed at the polls will give way to a new PSOE of the Felipista style. On the other hand, a minimally reinforced Sánchez will be able to remain as leader of the opposition and, let us not rule it out, run again, depending on how things go, in the next elections. It is what we could call the super-return.