Pedro Sánchez's new ace in the hole to try and reach 2027

MadridFrom the moment Pedro Sánchez arrived at La Moncloa, he has been living in a kind of final stretch. It's impossible to count on one hand the number of times his rivals have written him off or his own coalition partners have given him an ultimatum to suspend the legislature. But the PSOE leader is still there, to the point that this week he became the third longest-serving president in Spanish democratic history, behind only Felipe González and José María Aznar. If he completes his term, as he himself claims, he would be the second longest-serving, surpassed only by Felipe González's 14 years in power. However, those at La Moncloa are aware of the hostility they have to contend with, especially in Madrid, and of the poor electoral results they will have to face in the short term: a setback is expected for Pilar Alegría this Sunday in Aragon, and there are no good prospects in Castile and León (March 15) or for María Jesús Montero in Andalusia (in June). To counter this reality—which has become even more complicated at the beginning of the year with the management of the railway crisis—Pedro Sánchez's plan involves not only consolidating his position as leader of the left, but also becoming the public face of a kind of cross-party "democratic bloc." To understand the Spanish government's strategy, it's necessary to bear in mind that, for Moncloa (the Prime Minister's residence), politics is no longer structured along the traditional right-left ideological axis, but is now divided between democrats and a kind of "modern fascism" represented by Donald Trump and the techno-oligarchs—who are dragging the traditional right along with them. Therefore, Pedro Sánchez is no longer content with competing with Alberto Núñez Feijóo or Santiago Abascal, but seeks the antithesis in the great leader of this entire wave: Donald Trump. Or Elon Musk (X) and Pavel Durov (Telegram) as representatives of the oligarchs who align themselves with the global far right to conquer Western governments.

This is the political playing field he has tried to establish this week with the announcement, on the one hand, of a ban on social media access for minors under 16 and, on the other, of his support for the regularization of migrants that the Spanish government has already approved. This has been echoed by the American media: The New York Times CNN has covered the decision to regularize half a million people and also published an article by Sánchez defending it: "The West needs immigrants" was one of the key ideas. Journalist Richard Quest also asked CNN this week why he was going in the "opposite" direction to most governments on immigration. Sánchez replied: "There is a moral aspect, which is that we have been a country of migrants [...]. And a pragmatic aspect, which is that these people are contributing to Spain's economic success." A philosophy completely opposed to Donald Trump's ICE, and one with which he intends to mobilize the electorate to change the polls, which now predict a victory for the PP and Vox in the next general election.

Innovation with Junts

Beyond the historical context, in practice, the key ingredient for trying to finish the term is the parliamentary coalition. Sánchez has many problems with the multinational majority: those in Moncloa are aware of the difficulty of paralyzing a majority with many ideological differences, and the clearest example of this has been this week with... separation of the omnibus decree for the increase in pensions and anti-eviction measures, which are still not guaranteed due to Junts's opposition.

However, at the beginning of 2026, Sánchez has tried to revive key issues for the parties that support him. At the beginning of January, he was photographed with Oriol Junqueras and presented the financing model agreed upon with Esquerra; he has reached an agreement with Podemos on the regularization of migrants, and next week he will promote the law against multiple recidivism that Junts has been demanding for some time. This regulation, moreover, has already generated a lot of anticipation at the local level: both a delegation of mayors from Junts and the PSC will be in Congress to demand it, since they all have an interest in capitalizing on it in the lead-up to the 2027 municipal elections.

It is with Carles Puigdemont's party that the PSOE continues to maintain the most tortuous relationship. Since Junts decided to sever ties with the Spanish government last October, there has been no direct negotiation. This has forced Pedro Sánchez's team to innovate in parliamentary politics: seeking indirect interlocutors—primarily the PNV—or floating trial balloons in the media to gauge how Miriam Nogueras's party reacts to certain announcements. They also try to gauge which measures Junts might ideologically welcome or consult the Brussels agreement handbook (with all the pending issues) to determine which buttons to push to appease Puigdemont's party. A formal communication channel exists, through which the Secretary of State for the Cortes, Rafael Simancas, relays information to Nogueras regarding parliamentary initiatives.

This type of flirtation through an intermediary, where the PSOE clearly understands what Junts wants and its members simply wait for the other party to take action, is the same system they will follow regarding the delegation of powers on immigration already agreed upon by both parties, a move that sank Podemos in Congress.

With the regularization announced by Sánchez, Ione Belarra's party is now open to discussing the issue again, despite having labeled the bill "racist." Does this mean there is a classic open negotiation underway? No. Sources within Podemos explain that their commitment to the PSOE was to demonstrate a willingness to negotiate in exchange for the regularization of migrants, while Junts demands that Podemos retract its position and explicitly defend the position that Catalonia must assume these powers without altering the article. How will they then emerge from this impasse? The PSOE assumes they will engage in a new indirect dialogue. They are confident that if the delegation of powers goes ahead and Puigdemont's return in the spring is possible, in addition to making progress on financing with Esquerra Republicana – which will benefit Salvador Illa in the Catalan government with the Catalan budget – they will be able to give the legislature the necessary veneer of stability to reach 2027. Even if it means not approving the national budget.

No alternative

Sources at Moncloa Palace don't hide the difficulty of dealing with the realities of this legislature, but they are convinced that their partners have no option but to support Sánchez. The alternative offered by the PP and Vox is far worse for their interests, they point out. This is illustrated with a graphic metaphor: regardless of the origins of the groups within the plurinational majority, they all have to go through the same roundabout, which is the PSOE, to move forward with their program. Because—returning to the beginning—the Spanish government interprets all the groups within the plurinational majority as part of this "democratic bloc" that Pedro Sánchez wants to lead.