Pedro Sánchez only has Catalonia left.
BarcelonaThe map of Spain's autonomous communities was practically painted blue in the 2023 regional elections. Extremadura was a narrow exception—the PSOE still held onto its first-place position—but Guillermo Fernández Vara was ousted by the PP-Vox pact. Although María Guardiola had promised not to ally with the far right, the party leadership in Madrid (Génova) didn't want to miss the opportunity to seize power in this region for only the second time since the beginning of democracy. This Sunday, Extremadura, a traditional socialist stronghold, consolidated its shift to the right. This phenomenon already occurred in Andalusia with Juanma Moreno's rise to power—he, unlike Guardiola, does have an absolute majority.
The Extremadura elections could be a prelude to the next six months. horribilis For Sánchez, if the trend continues in the other elections: on February 8, the current spokesperson for the Spanish government, Pilar Alegría, will face off against Jorge Azcón, the current president of Aragon; then it will be Castile and León, and finally Andalusia, where the Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, will be on the line. All this while, in the Congress of Deputies, the weakness of the Spanish government will become increasingly evident, unable to pass a budget, and information about the alleged corruption cases affecting the PSOE will surface. In this context, Catalonia stands as the main stronghold of the Socialists, with President Salvador Illa at the helm. Unlike the other autonomous communities, which, according to polls, are already turning their backs on the PSOE. SanchismoIn Catalonia, he holds firm. Not only did the PSC win the last elections to the Catalan Parliament, but in the 2023 Spanish elections, the Catalan contribution was key to Sánchez remaining in La Moncloa (the Prime Minister's residence). And he continues to be well-regarded among the electorate: in the latest CEO barometer, 32% of respondents would prefer Sánchez as President of Spain, compared to 3% who opted for Alberto Núñez Feijóo. This percentage is slightly higher than the previous poll, which showed 28%. In fact, after the PSOE leader, Catalans prefer Santiago Abascal (7%) and then Yolanda Díaz (5%) as president.
The lesson for Feijóo
Although the results are very tough for the PSOE, they are also tough for the PP. Guardiola's only reason for calling early elections, after failing to pass the budget, was to achieve an absolute majority and distance himself from the far right. And this has not happened; nothing could be further from the truth. After these elections, Santiago Abascal, who focused on campaigning throughout Extremadura, is stronger than ever and paints a picture of a pre-election scenario in the lead-up to any potential Spanish elections that is disastrous for the PP. The result confirms Feijóo's inability to stand out against the far-right leader. And that is the only factor Sánchez can focus on this election night, and it is not insignificant.
In this critical situation, the PSOE leader only has two levers at his disposal: on the one hand, trying to frame the upcoming Spanish elections as a choice between him and Abascal in order to mobilize the left-wing vote (the problem for the Socialists in Extremadura has been abstention); And on the other hand, to further cement the plurinational alliance that brought him to La Moncloa by fulfilling the outstanding commitments with Junts and Esquerra (the return of Carles Puigdemont, Oriol Junqueras's eligibility to run, and the financing model), which would give him precious parliamentary stability. This is the only possible chapter in the resistance manual.