Young men are the least supportive of democracy

BarcelonaIs democracy in danger? Does it have the majority support of the citizens? In general, more than 80% of Catalans give unquestionable support to the political system. However, this percentage falls among the youngest, between 18 and 24 years old, especially among men: 61.8% support the democratic system – that is, 20 points less than the rest of the age groups – but there is 16.4% who support an authoritarian system over a democracy. This percentage is not equaled in any other age group or sex. In fact, 73.1% of women between 18 and 24 years old support democracy (although below the average), while only 9.6% would support a dictatorship. The data comes from the opinion poll of the Institute of Political and Social Sciences (ICPS) made public this Wednesday.

The survey also shows that boys in this age group are the ones who least value living in a democratic country. When asked if they consider it "extremely important" to live in a democratically governed country, only 29.1% say so, compared to more than 50% of the rest of the respondents. This percentage is also lower than that of girls between 18 and 24 years old, which is 42.3%. On the other hand, the survey also reveals another figure: that 60% of those surveyed believe that democracy is threatened. Why? The main causes are fake news, the extreme right and economic inequalities. However, among young people under 25 years old, the percentage who consider that the extreme right threatens democracy drops to 53.2% compared to women of the same age (82.6%).

In fact, the survey shows a conservative tendency among younger men, as other surveys already show: 30% are right-wing, a percentage higher than the 10% of younger women. This is a dynamic that breaks with what has historically been the case: that older people were more right-wing, explained the director of the ICPS, Oriol Bartomeus, in a press conference. Younger men also have more conservative positions regarding feminism: only 40% support this concept, a percentage lower than the 57.7% a year ago. In fact, 50% of men also consider that a point has been reached where men and women have the same opportunities, a percentage higher than that of women (which does not reach 50%).

The migration phenomenon is also one of the issues that the survey asked about. Support for immigration remains at 53.9% (a year ago it was almost 60%), but its detractors have risen to 28.1%. However, there is a relevant fact and that is that the number of supporters who believe that the entry of immigrants should be limited has increased by ten points and now there are 54% of respondents who support it. Bartomeus attributes this to the "agenda effect", that is, that it is an issue that has an important weight on the public agenda.

Only 40% of ERC voters support Junqueras

Who do Catalans prefer as president? Salvador Illa is the preferred option of 20.6% of those surveyed. He is followed by Carles Puigdemont (14.5%) and Oriol Junqueras (10.7%), although both have lost support compared to a year ago (between two and three points). However, the majority of those surveyed (28.9%) are not taking sides and do not name any names. Be that as it may, if we break it down by voters, one fact stands out: only 37.9% of ERC voters want Oriol Junqueras to be president of the Generalitat. The figure is not innocuous, but rather shows that the situation of internal division that the party has experienced in recent months has also reached its electorate. The disorientation is reflected in the second preference of those surveyed who declare themselves to be republican voters: they do not know which candidate they would prefer (21.6%) to be president of the Generalitat, while 12.6% support Carles Puigdemont, the leader of Junts.

Precisely, among the voters of the Junta, it is the former president of the Generalitat who has unwavering support (74.1%), a percentage higher than that received by Salvador Illa among PSC voters (61.1%). In fact, the current president of the Generalitat has the support of the electorate of other parties, such as the PP: the popular voters prefer Isla (24.3%) to the president of his party, Alejandro Fernández (18.9%), to lead the Generalitat. He also receives the support of part of the voters of the comunes (16.3%). Jéssica Albiach, the current leader of the party in the Parliament, only receives 27.9% of support from his electorate, while the majority option of this space is not to choose any candidate (32.6%). Figures that show that the party has not found a replacement for the hyper-leadership that Ada Colau has exercised until now. The voters of the Catalan Alliance would choose Sílvia Orriols with 72.7%, while Ignacio Garriga would receive 35.7% of support from his electorate.

The 'no' to independence reaches 56.7%

On the other hand, the No In favour of independence, support reaches 56.7%, while those in favour of Catalonia leaving Spain remain at 36.7%. The survey also reveals that, for the first time since 2011, there is a tie between those who want Catalonia to be an independent state (31.3%) and those who defend that it remain an autonomous community (30.6%). Among the ERC electorate, support for independence is the lowest compared to the rest of the political parties and stands at 50%, while in Junts support is 77.8% and in the CUP, 75.9%.

The survey was carried out on a sample of 1,200 personal interviews at home with the population aged eighteen and over and has a margin of error of 2.8% for a confidence level of 95%. The survey was conducted by GESOP between November 7 and December 3, 2024.