A new 15-M or an opportunity for Pedro Sánchez?

MadridJuan is 72 years old and walks among the tents pitched at Puerta del Sol. He has just taken a photo and shows it: it is the diamond-shaped plaque beneath the sign that gives this Madrid square its name, which was placed by Manuela Carmena's city council in homage to the 15-M movement. "We were sleeping and we woke up," he says. Juan looks at it and recites it out loud, only to then explain that he has two children aged 37 and 39 who only managed to move out three years ago. "We thought that with a progressive government everything was already done, and in reality, nothing was done," he laments. This is a sentiment shared among the protesters who are in Puerta del Solin the state capital: it is palpable in the conversations, on the banners, and in the public statements of the Tenants' Union. Are we facing Pedro Sánchez's 15-M?

Let's recap. The 15-M movement occurred in 2011, led by the indignados movement, present all over the world, and against a capitalist economic system that had collapsed due to the fall of Lehman Brothers. That also caught the socialists in government, with a José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero executive already exhausted and with the cuts very present in the public debate. From there, parties like Podemos emerged, with leaders like Pablo Iglesias, or Comuns, with figures like Ada Colau; however, the state elections were won by Mariano Rajoy's PP with an absolute majority.

Are we facing a similar situation? Certainly there are issues that are. Sánchez is already at the end of the legislature, without a guaranteed majority in Congress, and the polls give an absolute majority for the right of Alberto Núñez Feijóo and the extreme right of Santiago Abascal. Furthermore, the breeding ground against the progressive government is there: the social movement feels disappointed by an executive that has not met its expectations.

Wounded, however...

However, unlike Zapatero, whom everyone already considered written off and who announced around those same dates that he would not run for re-election –it was Alfredo Pérez Rubalcaba who did so–, Pedro Sánchez is not finished yet (or at least he has no intention of throwing in the towel). Therefore, he still has the opportunity to try and play the mobilization of the left on the streets in his favor.

To begin with, it is much more in Sánchez's interest for the public conversation to revolve around the right to housing rather than around immigration, a topic that has dominated the discussion since the Ceuta crisis on July 30th. Although protesters shout against the progressive government during the demonstrations, in the Moncloa they know they continue to be the lesser evil compared to what might come (a Feijóo-Abascal executive) and that, unlike the 15-M movement, the demands of those camped out today at the Puerta del Sol are concrete and not a general challenge to the system.

Furthermore, fifteen years later, it has also been shown that the parties that emerged from that social movement have not met expectations either: Sumar has left Yolanda Díaz behind, does not have a clear visible face and, in the event that it were Ada Colau, the former mayor of Barcelona has already governed. And Podemos held nothing less than the vice-presidency of the Spanish government with Pablo Iglesias without fulfilling the promise of storming the heavens.

Therefore, Sánchez finds himself at a very significant crossroads that, depending on what he does, could be his final blow –with both the right and the left against him in the streets– or his opportunity to turn the prospects around if he manages to ride the wave. The main difficulty he faces is squaring the circle in Congress: and the one who can make it most difficult for him is not Junts or the PNB –who could reach a consensus with the PSOE regarding housing– but above all Sumar and Podemos, since the socialist strategy is to find a lowest common denominator among all the parties, while the left-wing groups are aiming for the maximum.

The left of the PSOE may be tempted to raise the stakes to capture street indignation and distance themselves from Sánchez in this final stretch of the legislature. Colau herself, who is now flirting with the idea of leading the new Sumar, has opened the door to leaving the State executive over housing policies; while Podemos has long since decided to point the finger at Moncloa and speak from the purity that opposition allows.

If they decide to do this, these moves might be electorally profitable for them in the short term, but it is, without a doubt, the most lethal thing they can do for a re-edition of the progressive majority led by Pedro Sánchez. The litmus test for how the Spanish president plays his cards will be the decree law that the council of ministers must approve on Tuesday.