A negotiation surrounded by noise

MadridConsidering the evolution of the tariff conflict, one could say that there is a new global pandemic characterized by the general psychological illness of dissociation. Let's look at the dictionary. The second meaning of this word, dissociation, is the following: "A breakdown in the psychic unity of the personality, perceptible through the observation of movements or expressions contrary to the intellectual or emotional context surrounding them." If we consider that the first person diagnosed is US President Donald Trump, we wouldn't be lying. Going from the big blackboard on which the Republican leader proudly and menacingly displayed the list of tariff penalties by country to the abrupt halt of the moratorium for a period of ninety days—perhaps extendable—is a clear case of dissociation with planetary effects. But this "break in the psychic unity of the personality" seems to have spread very easily, not only because of the consequences of Trump's changes in direction, but because on the grand chessboard of commercial and strategic interests, it has provoked all kinds of seemingly contradictory movements. And let's not even mention Spanish politics, where he has managed to make leaders and parties walk the tightrope of the most dissociative juggling acts, trying to make compatible, for example, a supposed desire for a pact with the traditional exercise of opposition with flamethrowers.

The PSOE views events with relative calm, although shaken from both the right and the left. On the right, composed of Feijóo and the PP, now supposedly open to dialogue, but with a great deal of distrust, and by a far right trying to reposition itself by offering the unlikely possibility of acting as an intermediary with the US administration. And on the other hand, a divided left—once again—and in need of oxygen in the face of general elections with a rather unpredictable date. It's worth looking at all this more closely. The Socialists will have to be careful, because in this crisis they can take a lot of damage. Pedro Sánchez will not be able to avoid parliamentary oversight and could lose quite a few votes along the way if the inevitable increase in defense and security spending, on the one hand, and the effects of the trade war on various sectors, on the other, force him to resort to surgical solutions later on. For now, €14.4 billion has been announced to help the sectors most affected by the tariff crisis. But we have already had the first discussion based on the traditional arguments of the payment of a supposed Catalan quota. It is a very repetitive and burdensome scenario. However, it is relatively easily overcome. The problem will arise if it later becomes clear that, without much explanation in Congress, there are social policy items that are suffering from a reordering of priorities forced by the effects of Trump's tariff revolution and the new contributions to a more expensive and coordinated European security and defense policy. These commitments cannot be ignored.

A few days ago, political philosophy professor Daniel Innerarity told me about the dramatic nature and sense of insecurity experienced in Finland—a country he recently visited—about the risk of Vladimir Putin's new territorial ambitions awakening. All this in a context in which Russian presidential spokesman Dmitri Peskov said last Friday that "there's no need to expect progress" regarding the war in Ukraine, shortly before Putin met for the third time in St. Petersburg with Trump's envoy, Steve Witkoff. Innerarity told me that the Finns—starting with the president of the republic, Alexander Stubb—speak directly of "fear." And this reminded me of the times in recent weeks when Pedro Sánchez has spoken about the need for Spain to show solidarity and closeness with the countries of northern Europe, just as those in the south of the continent have called for similar reactions in the fight against the COVID-19 pandemic. Sánchez has now had the opportunity to play an interesting card. with his trip to China and VietnamA well-posed situation, on the other hand, because the Spanish president has taken care to appear not only with this position and status, but as the bearer of a European message, agreed upon with the president of the Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in favor of new avenues for commercial and political relations with the countries visited, especially with China, obviously.

Montero y Cuerpo

While Sánchez is earning his carob beans and international acclaim by crisscrossing the globe, we here continue to experience our own particular experiences of dissociation. It's hard to believe, for example, that Vice President María Jesús Montero, head of the Treasury, and Minister Carlos Cuerpo, head of the Economy, are part of the same government. And not because of the usual differences between departments when it comes to money, but because of the fact that, while the latter is talking intensely with the PP's Economy spokesperson, Juan Bravo, to try to reach an agreement on the tariff war, the former must face, as in the last parliamentary control session, to an offensive by the PP full of disqualifications.

Montero and Cuerpo have agreed on these days in denying that there are privileged territories in the distribution of aid to sectors affected by the impact of US conditions on imports. Some have concluded that Junts wanted to break off negotiations between the government and the PP because they had demanded 25% of the 14.4 billion euros allocated for said aid. Montero's response was that the PP is looking for a pretext to avoid any scenario of pacts with the government. Hopefully, that's not the case. The country would benefit from the PP and PSOE giving the tariff war a response worthy of their experience in government. The noise already has many more opportunities to appear. We don't have to go very far. As a phenomenon of dissociation, what Podemos and Sumar are involved in is quite interesting. Or what the Supreme Court maintains with Parliament regarding the amnesty law, after the criminal court has once again made it clear that it will no longer apply to the crime of embezzlement. Here, dissociation is already customary.