Junts and Aliança Catalana would tie for third place in an election, according to the CEO

The far right continues its rise in Catalonia: Aliança Catalana would climb to 19-20 seats and tie with Junts (19-20) for third place, according to the latest barometer from the Center for Opinion Studies (CEO). However, Junts remains ahead in vote share (13-15%) compared to Aliança (11-14%). The poll also indicates that the PSC remains in first place, but is stagnating (38-40); in fact, it would lose two seats compared to the last barometer published in July. ERC, for its part, would gain ground and become the second largest party (22-23), ahead of Junts. The upward trend of the far right would also be reflected in Vox (13-14) making overtaking in the PP (12-13). Comunes would remain at 6 seats, as would the CUP, between 3-4.

The barometer was compiled between October 13 and November 11. It was during this period that Junts decided to break with the Spanish government and enter the opposition. With these results in hand, the renewal of the PSC's pact with ERC and Comuns would be jeopardized, leaving Catalonia in a complicated scenario. The pro-independence movement would also fall short of a majority, as the combined total of Junts, ERC, and the CUP would not reach the 50 seats needed. Even with Aliança's votes, the threshold of 68 seats would not be reached, although the far-right party is a disruptive factor when it comes to forging alliances within the pro-independence movement. The Junts' drop of approximately ten seats is primarily due to the exodus of voters to Aliança Catalana, specifically a 21% decrease. In fact, only 60% of Junts voters would continue to vote for the party, a clear decline in voter loyalty among Junts supporters. According to the CEO's director, Joan Rodríguez Teruel, who presented the survey as "conservative," Alianza would come in first place in the Lleida and Girona districts. However, Teruel also urged caution in interpreting this data, as the sample size in these areas is smaller and Alianza's support could be "overestimated." In the case of Vox, its growth is at the expense of the PP: 10% of PP voters would now prefer Ignacio Garriga's party. In fact, if the survey were accurate, Catalonia would be the first region in the entire country where the far-right party would surpass the PP. Regarding the upward trend for both Aliança and Vox, Teruel highlighted that the voters of both parties "are becoming increasingly similar," and that Silvia Orriols' party is gaining ground on Vox regarding immigration: "There are people concerned about this issue who are leaving Vox and moving towards Aliança Catalana." Nine percent of Vox voters now say they would opt for Orriols. As for the Congress, the PSC would win the elections again in Catalonia (19-20 seats) and would relatively increase its representation compared to the July barometer, and Esquerra would remain the second largest party (9-10 seats) and would also gain one or two seats. Junts, on the other hand, would remain in third place, but with a lower representation (5-6 seats), tying with the PP and Vox with the same number of deputies. Sumar would lose four seats, ending up with three, while Podemos would not gain any representation.

Leader assessment

When it comes to choosing the preferred political leader to preside over the Generalitat (Catalan government), Salvador Illa remains in the lead with 21% of the vote. He is followed at a distance by the leader of Junts, Carles Puigdemont, with 8%, tied with Sílvia Orriols. Behind them are the leader of ERC, Oriol Junqueras (7%), and the Republican spokesperson in Congress, Gabriel Rufián (4%). Salvador Illa also continues to be the highest-rated Catalan political leader. The leader of the PSC (Socialist Party of Catalonia) receives a 6.2, ahead of Oriol Junqueras, president of ERC, who obtains a 5.5. The leader of Comuns in the Catalan Parliament, Jéssica Albiach, completes the top three with a 4.7. The leader of Aliança Catalana, Sílvia Orriols, is in fourth position, with a 4.2, ahead of Carles Puigdemont, with a 3.8. Completing the ranking are CUP deputy Pilar Castillejo, with a 3.7; PP leader Alejandro Fernández, with a 2.2; and Vox leader Ignacio Garriga, who obtains a 2. Regarding national leaders, Spanish President Pedro Sánchez is also the respondents' favorite to occupy the Moncloa Palace, with a 3. Sánchez is followed by Vox leader Santiago Abascal (7%); Sumar leader Yolanda Díaz (5%); and PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo (3%). Sánchez is also the highest-rated national leader: he obtains a 5.6. He is followed by Sumar leader Yolanda Díaz (4.9). PP leader Alberto Núñez Feijóo (2) and Vox leader Santiago Abascal (1.8) close the ranking. Support for independence

Support for independence remains at a similar level to recent polls: 39 percent of respondents favor an independent state for Catalonia, while 53 percent oppose it. Support for independence has declined most significantly among young people, particularly those under 25. By political party, Aliança Catalana voters show the lowest percentage of support for independence at 62%. In contrast, CUP voters have the highest percentage at 84%, followed by Junts at 81%, and ERC at 70%.

If we consider the CEO question, which also includes the options of an autonomous community and a federal state, Aliança voters are the ones who, within the pro-independence parties, give the broadest percentage of support to the option of maintaining Catalonia as an autonomous community (21%), while there is also 4%. In fact, Aliança is the pro-independence party that, according to its voters, would be closest to the pro-Spanish axis, at 3.8 (0 being the minimum and 10 the maximum).

Main problems

Housing remains the primary concern for citizens (31%), followed by immigration (11%) and public safety (9%). Voters from all political parties identify access to housing as the main current problem, except for those of Aliança Catalana and Vox, who cite immigration. Voters of Ignacio Garriga's party also rank public safety as their second most pressing issue, while those of Silvia Orriols prioritize access to housing.