How will Pedro Sánchez hold out until 2027?

Madrid"We will finish this legislative term in 2027." Pedro Sánchez made this statement two weeks ago at a press conference. Year in review from Moncloa And it summarizes in five words the roadmap that the Spanish government and the PSOE have been tirelessly repeating for months. Despite the legal storm, parliamentary weakness, the doubts surrounding Sumar, and the cascade of sexual and workplace harassment allegations within the PSOE—which have been major blows to the socialist leader's project—Sánchez's unwavering determination is to complete the legislature that began in 2023. The PP and Vox will face a repeat of the dilemma that proved fruitful for him on June 23rd.

The Spanish president's top priority upon returning from the Christmas holidays will be... presentation of the budgets of 2026. In the last two years, the PSOE has abandoned its preparation –The PP has taken it to the Constitutional Court—, but in the summer Sánchez He pledged to take the step Despite the risks involved, Podemos and Junts warn that they will not make it easy. Carles Puigdemont's party has, for now, broken ties with the Socialists and has already They voted against it The deficit and debt targets are the first major step towards new public accounts. But if the Spanish government fails Even if the budgets receive the green light – those of 2023 are still extended – Sánchez will continue to refer to European funds – a "fantastic tool", in his words – and extraordinary transfers.

The Minister of Finance, María Jesús Montero, intends to present a draft budget in February. To pave the way for this, the Spanish government must continue fulfilling its commitments to its investiture partners. The first steps to be accelerated are the new financing model and the transfer of the commuter rail network, agreements reached with the Catalan Republican Left (ERC). January will be key for both folders. Meanwhile, Junts continues to demand – among other things – official recognition of Catalan in the European Union and the publication of fiscal balances, a measure the Treasury is already working on. And the PNV is waiting for the pending transfers to be completed – for example, unemployment and non-contributory benefits, school insurance, and Maritime Rescue.

What to do without Congress?

Meanwhile, the Spanish government wants to continue implementing its social agenda, according to government sources cited by ARA. In this regard, Sánchez has instructed the ministries to expedite measures that don't require congressional approval, where achieving a majority is becoming increasingly difficult. "There are issues that don't require legislation," argued the newly appointed spokesperson for the Spanish government, Elma Saiz, on Monday. For example? The Second Vice President of the Spanish government wants to tighten regulations on recording working hours, a measure included in the law that was supposed to reduce the workweek to 37.5 hours. derailed Due to the opposition of Junts, the PP, and Vox, the Ministry of Labor will be able to regulate the registry without going through Congress—the initiative is still being processed—but it will not be able to increase its penalties. Another case: within the framework of the rapprochement with Junts promoted by SánchezA line of aid was approved a few weeks ago—although no budget has yet been allocated—for unpaid rent for young people and vulnerable groups, which does not require congressional approval. The increase in the minimum wage also does not require a vote.

When there is no other option but to go to Congress, parliamentary fragmentation has encouraged the Moncloa Palace to frequently use the royal decree-law: a regulation with the force of law intended for cases of "extraordinary and urgent need" and which must be ratified by the Lower House. And the statistics are clear: 86% of the decrees have been approved—four have been repealed—while only 23% of the bills have been successfully passed—63 have failed or remain stalled. In this sense, a common strategy of the Spanish government is to resort to these so-called decrees. bus, which mix measures of very varied kinds: in the last decree of the yearThe first vote of 2026, which will be the first in 2026, has included –among other things– the increase in pensions, the suspension of evictions of vulnerable families, the social electricity bonus and tax measures due to the DANA storm in the Valencian Community and the summer fires.

Between Soto del Real and the Supreme Court

Another focus of attention for the Moncloa Palace in the next twelve months will inevitably be the courts. The Supreme Court is expected to begin the trial against José Luis Ábalos, Koldo García, and Víctor de Aldama at the end of February for the purchase of medical supplies during the pandemicFrom Ferraz, they've long wanted to create a firewall around the former number 3 of the party. "No government in history has acted with such forcefulness against corruption," Óscar López boasted on Tuesday in an interview on TVE.

Will Ábalos be a ticking time bomb for the PSOE? The days before and after entering the Soto del Real prisonThe former minister began firing indiscriminately at former colleagues, but recently asserted that he has no evidence of "criminal acts and illicit activities" involving Sánchez. However, the former PSOE organizational secretary is under scrutiny for the cash payments made at the party headquarters on Ferraz Street. The audit commissioned by the party has uncovered "surprising" expenses by Ábalos, but has ruled out illegal financing.

The Socialists will also have to keep a close eye on developments in the investigations into the Leire Díez case—specifically, the alleged attempts to discredit the Civil Guard, judges, and prosecutors—as well as the SEPI case and the Plus Ultra case. Furthermore, they could also be monitoring the outcomes of the legal cases against the Spanish president's brother and wife, who have been the Socialists' two main targets. accusing judges of "playing politics".

However, in his usual back-and-forth with Alberto Núñez Feijóo, Sánchez will be able to cling to issues that will affect the PP—directly or indirectly. The main focus will be on... Kitchen trialThe trial, which will begin in April, will see former Interior Minister Jorge Fernández Díaz and his top officials investigated for allegedly orchestrating a paramilitary operation to steal information from Luis Bárcenas. Additionally, a trial is expected against Alberto González Amador, Isabel Díaz Ayuso's partner, for... alleged tax fraudThey will also expedite the investigations into the Montoro case and the handling of the DANA storm.